Model Output Discussion - January 12th.

[Brum Watcher]

what is agreeable at the moment is that the ECM ens are totally against the GFS OP and the GFS ens are against the ECM OP. The other Mods are a mere watch and wait in this standoff. The mother of all battles in progress. as it stands this winter 1-0 to the GFS, can the ECM find an equaliser?

[phil nw.]

I have just come on line again and quite frankly this thread has too many argumentative and point scoring posts-full of subjective comments.

There are some notable exceptions and for these we thankyou for trying to be objective and informative.

Please will some of you think before posting and stop the Mod Disc, being cluttered with drivel-whether in this thread or any new one.

Edited January 13, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[gottolovethisweather]

Also, to add to further posts from Liam J and others, this post from Paul yesterday might help some folks. If you click on the links (2nd link for non-subscribers) within the linked post below, I'm sure most folk would be able to make comparisons stratospherically between runs. Simply run the animations and this should in turn indicate how everything is EVOLVING.

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2210210

As I understand it and I may well be wrong, its the stratospheric differences, all at different levels, that are causing the present change in weather type. Alongside this, the effect of this on our surface weather is causing the MANY different projected outlooks further out.

The stratospheric thread http://forum.netweat...watch-20112012/ within these forums are a fantastic area for learning but beware, they can be quite heavy reading. Mind you, at certain times, it is impossible to learn facts from fiction in this very thread.

Keep up the informative MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION posts guys n gals and I'll await the GFS 12z with much intrepidation as ever.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 13, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Timmytour]

It strikes me that such are the current differences between the output of the ECM and GFS that more and more people are now settling, in their own minds, for an outcome that is somewhere between the two. That begs the question..... do the contributors to this thread constitute a model run in their own right....albeit with outliers on both sides.....and will this prove in time to have been the best model of all with regard to how the next two weeks go?

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z is now on its way out upto 24hrs now will it join ECM or will it stick to what it did this morning the next hour will be a long one, I hope its a good run tonight just a ECM starts to show some consistancy.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I think we will have a good idea what the GFS is thinking quite early in the run The Azrores Atlantic area is especially one to watch we should have a good idea quite what GFS is thinking quite early around the 96h mark you can compare the 06z and 12z on WZ as the new charts update.

[dvdfjojo]

Could someone please explain to me how the models deal with stratospheric warming.

Am I right in thinking that the the run is produced based on what the current statosphere temp recorded data is for that time and although there's a model to predict stratosphere temps with the 10hpa/30hpa heights, this prediction itself isn't incorporated into the full model run when working out what the weather's going to actually do - does that make sense?

I've confused myself now, hope that's clear to someone.

[SMU]

Quite a big correction towards the EUROS ECM from the GFS at 54- more amplified over Scandi-

less energy going East- Which 'should' ensure the whole pattern is further west down the line....

steve

Edited January 13, 2012 by Steve Murr

[k19]

Interesting the trough to our southwest seems to be acting a bit more like featured in the ecm now...

[phil nw.]

http://modeles.meteo...312-0-54.png?12

Quite a big correction towards the EUROS ECM from the GFS at 54- more amplified over Scandi-

less energy going East- Which 'should' ensure the whole pattern is further west down the line....

steve

Are you watching the jet modelling like me Steve?

T72 around now is crunch time--where will the main thrust of energy go?

Edited January 13, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[gottolovethisweather]

Could someone please explain to me how the models deal with stratospheric warming.

Am I right in thinking that the the run is produced based on what the current statosphere temp recorded data is for that time and although there's a model to predict stratosphere temps with the 10hpa/30hpa heights, this prediction itself isn't incorporated into the full model run when working out what the weather's going to actually do - does that make sense?

I've confused myself now, hope that's clear to someone.

You'v confused me but I'm easily confused and I am nearing 40. See my previous post here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72218-model-output-discussion-january-12th/page__view__findpost__p__2211401 as the best advice that I can give.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 13, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Nope don't think the GFS is going to back down the profile looks flatter when comparing the two models at 72h with more energy spilling around Iceland compared to ECM.

I might be wrong here but to my eye at this early stage the stand off is going to continue.

[lorenzo]

Splits on the block at 72 -78 hrs... encouraging..

[blackprince]

Also, to add to further posts from Liam J and others, this post from Paul yesterday might help some folks. If you click on the links (2nd link for non-subscribers) within the linked post below, I'm sure most folk would be able to make comparisons stratospherically between runs.

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2210210

As I understand it and I may well be wrong, its the stratospheric differences, all at different levels within the stratosphere that are causing the present change in weather type. Alongside this, the effect of this on our surface weather is causing the MANY different projected outlooks.

The stratospheric thread http://forum.netweat...watch-20112012/ within these forums are a fantastic area for learning but beware, they can be quite heavy reading. Mind you, at certain times, it is impossible to learn facts from fiction in this very thread.

Keep up the informative MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION posts guys n gals and I'll await the GFS 12z with much intrepidation as ever.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

Thanks for the links they are very helpful to a watcher and as far as the model output discussion forum I have a few questions to ask,

Are not the models based on deductions and or computer based reasoning? if so are none actual facts but based on trends?

Does anyone check exactly how the models pan out with the actual weather? as I was looking on here quite a few days ago and various changes were deemed to be 10 days away and these same changes are still being predicted to be 10 days away.

How many people feed info into the different models?and are they doing this as part of a job or are they amateurs?surely the amount of input and the quality might make one model better than another.

It seems very hard for some people on here to state what they see in the models without trying to add a forecast in favour of their type of prefered weather.I watch the model forum to get and idea of what is likely to happen but find the point scoring and non fact based ramps hard to put up with.When the weather events arrive and the regional forums start going mad is when I seem to find the model disscussions making more sense.There are several contributors on here that I focus on and are clearly very keen and skilled. Sorry mods if this is in wrong forum but its about the models and I am unsure where else to post it.

[k19]

Splits on the block at 72 -78 hrs... encouraging..

I think the cause is the new depression just southwest of Iceland, dragging some of the energy north east. Could be this that allows the block to resist movement.

Edited January 13, 2012 by K.1000

[trisnow]

Well this is my first time actually watching a run come out live and am enjoying it

It's looking to me to be falling more in line with the ECM in a few areas??? As in it is looking more like a halfway house between what the ECm has been showing and the prev GFS run upto 96 hours?

[Paul]

Could someone please explain to me how the models deal with stratospheric warming.

Am I right in thinking that the the run is produced based on what the current statosphere temp recorded data is for that time and although there's a model to predict stratosphere temps with the 10hpa/30hpa heights, this prediction itself isn't incorporated into the full model run when working out what the weather's going to actually do - does that make sense?

I've confused myself now, hope that's clear to someone.

The stratospheric temperatures are taken in to account as part of every model run - the GFS uses, and produces forecast data from the top of the stratosphere right down to ground (in fact below ground) level at various levels.

[mountain shadow]

Personally, I'm struggling to see much difference between the GFS 12z and ECM0z at 96 hours. Trough in the atlantic a wee bit deeper, but that;s it.

[Paul]

Thanks for the links they are very helpful to a watcher and as far as the model output discussion forum I have a few questions to ask,

Are not the models based on deductions and or computer based reasoning? if so are none actual facts but based on trends?

Does anyone check exactly how the models pan out with the actual weather? as I was looking on here quite a few days ago and various changes were deemed to be 10 days away and these same changes are still being predicted to be 10 days away.

How many people feed info into the different models?and are they doing this as part of a job or are they amateurs?surely the amount of input and the quality might make one model better than another.

People don't feed info or any opinion/forecast into the models, it's all raw weather data from a huge range of resources across the globe fed in at the start of each run. Each model is effectively a massive computer program which then takes that data and does various calculations on it to produce the forecast. You can see more on the data which goes into each model run here:

http://forum.netweat...es-the-gfs-use/

[k19]

Personally, I'm struggling to see much difference between the GFS 12z and ECM0z at 96 hours. Trough in the atlantic a wee bit deeper, but that;s it.

That trough causes problems later on though as it shoots off north when the ECM tries to bring it down over the UK

[phil nw.]

Personally, I'm struggling to see much difference between the GFS 12z and ECM0z at 96 hours. Trough in the atlantic a wee bit deeper, but that;s it.

We can see the jet still goes NE over the top as in previous runs which keeps the pattern flatter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png

[johnholmes]

The stratospheric temperatures are taken in to account as part of every model run - the GFS uses, and produces forecast data from the top of the stratosphere right down to ground (in fact below ground) level at various levels.

to add to what Paul has posted, this link to UK Met has a wealth of information about how their model(s) is/are operated.

Some is pretty technical but most is easy enough to read and get a grasp of.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model

If you go to the ECMWF and NOAA sites you can get information on how thiur models are set up etc.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

GFS not backing down.

you can see clear difference at 120h GFS has a biglow coming off the ES much faster which will prevent any ridging from the Atlantic.

Over to the UKMO/ECM.

[PolarWarsaw]

Have to admit, im seriously nervous about what the ECM might show tonight. No back down from the GFS.

[weathe20]

Newbie eye, GFS seems closer to ECM at 120