Model Output Discussion - January 12th.

[cooling climate]

The signal for height rises to the NW must be a very weak one I think and that is why we are

getting conflicting imputs. Even the ECM drops the heights to the NW within a couple of

days and in fact the more I look at the ECM t240 operational chart the less I like it, although the

ensembly members do look a lot more encouraging.

As for which way the models will go well we have been here many times before when the models adamantly stick to their own scenarios and the outcome is usually a half way house type solution.

[trisnow]

looking at the ECM ensembles, Plenty of support for the Op. all three, Control/OP/mean tightly joined together till the end. Ukmo have tilted towards the GFS. im stuck in thinking here... looks like a second backtrack for the ECM this winter maybe...a winter to forget maybe..

This is probably my fault as a noob but I don't understand your comments?

With the MO's latest update for 10 days out does it not appear to now be more supporting the ECM charts when you look at them for 120hrs and 144hrs?

This statement on 1145 on Thu 12 Jan 2012 appears to support the GFS charts at that timeframe - Cold and frosty as well as some stubborn freezing fog patches on Tuesday morning, but a slow transition to milder, cloudier and more unsettled conditions from the west is expected for the rest of Tuesday and for Wednesday.

Whereas today this statement seems to support the ECM at that timeframe? Showers or longer spells of rain on Wednesday, with rain most persistent in northern and western parts of the UK, where strong, perhaps gale force winds are possible at times. Turning colder from the northwest through Thursday, with snow becoming increasingly likely across hills.

Edited January 13, 2012 by trisnow

[Frosty.]

Do you not feel though that "if" the Meto were going to fully back the ECM Then they would have included the words " Turning progressively Cold with Wintry Showers and Snow at Times " in the update.

I will be in dreamland if they do, we are either on the cusp of a major pattern change or set for more of the same substandard winter weather. gfs versus ecm has now reached a crucial period, one of these models is going to be eating humble pie in the next 24-48 hours, hope it's the gfs this time.

[Timmytour]

Would agree that over recent runs GFS has gathered some consistency rather than lost it......which is worrying.

It remains my preferred model and I'm hoping it reverts back to what it showed a while ago....which to me it seems to have a habit of doing.... but the disagreement among the models is fascinating stuff and emphasises that we don't live in a place where forecasting the weather comes easy.

I'm going with the GFS on its next run......I think if it flips then all well and good, if it doesn't then I think I can say goodbye to my chances of seeing any snow settle this side of february.

[johnholmes]

This is probably my fault as a noob but I don't understand your comments?

With the MO's latest update for 10 days does it not appear to now be more supporting the ECM charts when you look at them for 120hrs and 144hrs?

This statement on 1145 on Thu 12 Jan 2012 appears to support the GFS charts at that timeframe - Cold and frosty as well as some stubborn freezing fog patches on Tuesday morning, but a slow transition to milder, cloudier and more unsettled conditions from the west is expected for the rest of Tuesday and for Wednesday.

Whereas today this statement seems to support the ECM at that timeframe? Showers or longer spells of rain on Wednesday, with rain most persistent in northern and western parts of the UK, where strong, perhaps gale force winds are possible at times. Turning colder from the northwest through Thursday, with snow becoming increasingly likely across hills.

I think if you read what you have highlighted very carefully you will see 2 things.

One:- the weather is given from Tuesday on one day and Wednesday on the other day.

Two:-in a way you are right to ask as the emphasis does appear to have changed in their wording.

If you read my post above I try to stress that expecting precision or accuracy 5-10 days out, Wednesday-Thursday is 5 and 6 days ahead, is just not likely in what is, again as I've tried to explain in my post, a far from certain situation.

Are you happy with how I tried to describe the pattern? One being for very cold and probably snowy and the other model for not so cold and less snowy?

At the end of the day the duty forecaster has not sat on the fence as some suggest but, with many more charts in front of him than we ever see, decided that a fairly unsettled and mixed spell of weather is likely through the latter half of the 6-15 day forecast. A mix from mild to cold.

[P-M]

I think if you read what you have highlighted very carefully you will see 2 things.

One:- the weather is given from Tuesday on one day and Wednesday on the other day.

Two:-in a way you are right to ask as the emphasis does appear to have changed in their wording.

If you read my post above I try to stress that expecting precision or accuracy 5-10 days out, Wednesday-Thursday is 5 and 6 days ahead, is just not likely in what is, again as I've tried to explain in my post, a far from certain situation.

Are you happy with how I tried to describe the pattern? One being for very cold and probably snowy and the other model for not so cold and less snowy?

At the end of the day the duty forecaster has not sat on the fence as some suggest but, with many more charts in front of him than we ever see, decided that a fairly unsettled and mixed spell of weather is likely through the latter half of the 6-15 day forecast. A mix from mild to cold.

I am now confused with that post John. I think the poster was referring to BrumWatchers comments about the Meto backing the GSF?

[Tim Bland]

If you live on low lying ground in southern England then the GFS is very concerning. The ensembles for London below show very few members dropping to or below the magic -5c line. I owuld be more confident in the ECM if at least some ECM members supported it but they don't. We need to see the GFS come on board in the next 24hrs or it could be curtains until Feb for lying snow in Southern parts

[Frosty.]

I think if you read what you have highlighted very carefully you will see 2 things.

One:- the weather is given from Tuesday on one day and Wednesday on the other day.

Two:-in a way you are right to ask as the emphasis does appear to have changed in their wording.

If you read my post above I try to stress that expecting precision or accuracy 5-10 days out, Wednesday-Thursday is 5 and 6 days ahead, is just not likely in what is, again as I've tried to explain in my post, a far from certain situation.

Are you happy with how I tried to describe the pattern? One being for very cold and probably snowy and the other model for not so cold and less snowy?

At the end of the day the duty forecaster has not sat on the fence as some suggest but, with many more charts in front of him than we ever see, decided that a fairly unsettled and mixed spell of weather is likely through the latter half of the 6-15 day forecast. A mix from mild to cold.

They have covered all bases, a very wise policy.

[johnholmes]

I am now confused with that post John. I think the poster was referring to BrumWatchers comments about the Meto backing the GSF?

sorry about that-I was trying to help!

what is it you are confused about and I'll try again?

[shedhead]

I think if you read what you have highlighted very carefully you will see 2 things.

One:- the weather is given from Tuesday on one day and Wednesday on the other day.

Two:-in a way you are right to ask as the emphasis does appear to have changed in their wording.

If you read my post above I try to stress that expecting precision or accuracy 5-10 days out, Wednesday-Thursday is 5 and 6 days ahead, is just not likely in what is, again as I've tried to explain in my post, a far from certain situation.

Are you happy with how I tried to describe the pattern? One being for very cold and probably snowy and the other model for not so cold and less snowy?

At the end of the day the duty forecaster has not sat on the fence as some suggest but, with many more charts in front of him than we ever see, decided that a fairly unsettled and mixed spell of weather is likely through the latter half of the 6-15 day forecast. A mix from mild to cold.

Disagree, whether he/she is correct to sit on the fence on this occasion is quite rightly open to question, but to my mind whether he/she has sat on the fence isn't... splinters look a real risk to me...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'm trying to understand a little more but would I be reading this right BFTP if I said after looking at the Model Camparison images for 120hrs and 144hrs that this update from the MO would more favour what the images from the ECM is showing rather than the GFS? The little I understand about these charts tells me that the ECM has more bars packed closer together which would fall in line with this comment from the MO? "with rain most persistent in northern and western parts of the UK, where strong, perhaps gale force winds are possible at times. Turning colder from the northwest through Thursday, with snow becoming increasingly likely across hills."

So is the MO leaning towards the ECm more?

Yes it supports more the ECM. Its around the T144/156 time range on the charts, look at ECM and GFS at that timeframe and se what you think.

BFTP

[phil nw.]

The way that the GFS continues to split most of the energy northwards in the earlier frames shows why it leads to a flatter pattern and less cold outlook beyond midweek.

At T78 the jet is splitting against theblock and it looks as if most of it will go SE but GFS says no and a renewed jet streak sends the bulk of it north over the top by T132.

See the differences with the 3 runs at T120(114 for GFS06z)

GFS showed this same split of the jet going north last night around T84 so it`s kept with that.

You might say both ECM and GFS have held their respectively lines so we are none the wiser.

However i think the UKMO does look less keen on following the ECM this morning,at T120hrs.looking at the angle of the jet on that.

It`s all down to that energy distribution in the Atlantic and where it goes imo.

I would have thought some sign of agreement on this fairly early difference should come soon.

Edited January 13, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[trisnow]

sorry about that-I was trying to help!

what is it you are confused about and I'll try again?

Thanks for your reply John, I'm just about to download your PDF but yup my main point I was trying to make is that I couldn't understand why BrumWatcher had said "Ukmo have tilted towards the GFS. im stuck in thinking here... looks like a second backtrack for the ECM this winter maybe...a winter to forget maybe.."

[Weather Boy]

The way I see it is this.

On the one hand we have the GFS which although flip flopping recently has over the last few runs been sustained in giving a relatively mild op run. This is despite its enembles (on the 0z at least) being nowhere near the op, which is very odd. It also appears to be contrary to the general set up and pattern stage with signals given by the recent strat warming event etc. However, on the plus side it clearly has not been discounted by Meto who, as someone said must have a sore bum for all the fence sitting they have done.

In the other corner we have the ECM, backed solidly by its ensembles and having been extremely consistent in calling for colder weather. It is however occasionally having trouble getting other models to climb on board (apart, obviously from the GFS) and arguably it is receiving less backing from the Meto.

Putting these together (and also taking account GP's views, who of course could be totally wrong) my feeling is that it is more likely that the ECM will verify as having more and longer term support. I would add that the flip-flopping of the GFS has damaged its recent credibility. Notwithstanding my trying to avoid hopecasting, I'm going for the ECM in general here. It will be very interesting to see whether the 6z ensembles fall into line or continue to leave the op run out in the cold like last time.

We shall see!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

For the love of God, there is a separate thread for as much chat about the models as you like. In the three hours it's taken me to go out for a coffee, I've come back to find 75% of the posts aren't anything to do with the output but a general chat loosely based on models. I'm sure they can all be traced back to a salient point somewhere, but is it really too much to ask that some of you simply use another thread and allow those of us who are trying to find out, even roughly, what's going on to do that without wading through waffle?

If I find it annoying god only knows what it must be like for those not blessed with my patience.

[phil nw.]

Please keep to Model Disc.Talk about the Met outlook should be for the correct thread.

Thanks folks.

[Timmytour]

In watching the next GFS roll out on a frame by frame basis. what will be the earliest signs we will see to indicate whether or not it is shifting towards the ECM view of things?

[Frosty.]

In watching the next GFS roll out on a frame by frame basis. what will be the earliest signs we will see to indicate whether or not it is shifting towards the ECM view of things?

The good news is we now have increasing support for the Ecm output today and yesterday, the ecm has been rock solid in the last 24 hours in it's pattern changing outlook but I suppose you could say the same about the gfs, it's been rock solid in it's more of the same view of the mid range modelling.

[Downburst]

No concensus and there won't be concensus until a good few more runs. So fine is the proposed difference (as ever) of ECM to MET/GFS at 72 hours we just have to wait and see and state now not to get emotional about that simple fact. The problem with the models is that people expect resolution now and that is not what the models do, they are a projection only.

With that said, come on the ECM please be right, but I won't blame you if you're not! And I won't praise the GFS either, you're both virtual computer models.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I've just moved 8 posts into the general model chat (the thread formerly known as Model Mood Thread) but only because the points being discussed may be of interest to other people, not because I'm nice.

I won't be doing it again though, because I've got a headache and because if people can't be bothered to post in the right thread, we can't be bothered to go to any effort.

[dixonoid]

Looking at the posts today, by what I can make out, the GFS seems to be on it's own and by a recent post about the NOAA discussions, struggling after 72 hours, I do like the look of the ECM because it shows the colder weather, but this model seems to have some support by other models, ie: UKMO. So my feeling is that the GFS will fall into line with the ECM, not because it's showing cold, because it seems to have been more consistant the last couple of days.

[Frosty.]

Well the 12z runs will be crucial, and quite possibly crucial as far as the rest of the winter goes.

The GFS 12z is often most progressive with the jet and it would be a surprise to see any climbdown, particularly with the METO outlook in mind. Sometimes when the big models are poles apart there can be a halfway house solotion that comes to pass but that's hard to envisage given the modelling of the jet energy and Northern latitudes is so far apart.

Happy to be proved wrong, but I have 85-90% confidence in something like the GFS being the reality.

You have every reason to think that given how the gfs and ecm are currently poles apart although I expect them to merge somewhat in a few hours when the 12z roles out. The current trend is for it to begin to turn colder by next thursday with wintry showers but then a mix of mild and cold during the following week but that is the safe option which covers all bases.

[Brum Watcher]

sorry for setting in confusion on my part. the UKMO run shows at t120 more in favour of the GFS run at t120. The Meto update came to my knowledge after my comment. ECM ensembles do seem in favour of the OP. This is what makes it a solid output. GFS changes in the last week have been astonishing, not very reliable. (besides the last few runs) but UKMO t120 is a plus for GFS at this stage, and meto update is a plus for ECM.

So which run fails, is the big question. no one can be sure, but in all I have witnessed ECM backtrack more than the GFS this winter, hence my bias is towards the GFS in this moment in time.

Edited January 13, 2012 by Brum Watcher

[Frosty.]

So which run fails, is the big question. no one can be sure, but in all I have witnessed ECM backtrack more than the GFS this winter, hence my bias is towards the GFS in this moment in time.

At the end of the day, the gfs is currently indicating a brief cold snap at the end of next week followed by a continuation of the weather pattern which has dominated this winter so far. The ecm has caused a lot of excitement, including for me but the reality is likely to be somewhere inbetween, being realistic.

[bluearmy]

ECM ens can often be wrong 'en masse' if the trend of the op is also wrong. what is odd here is that the op is now on its 4th, maybe 5th consec run with consistency and each run drags some more members with it. the last two have been rock solid on a norwester T168 and yet gfs suites dont really want to know pre T200. there are a few ens members which fit into the ecm solution but not as many as you would expect. now we are able to see all the ecm postage stamps for each run to day 7, we can make better judgements than used to be the case. this may not be the largest divergence between ncep and ecmwf but it may well be the most significant for our part of nw europe since model watching began. if ukmo 12z at T144 doesnt tip the jet nw/se in an area denmark or west of denmark, i will be very surprised. (and a solution whereby ecm is right with the pattern but a few days too progressive will seem more likely - also, at a later juncture, the overall evolution is likely to be less marked for cold than the ones we have seen past day or two on ecm)