Model Output Discussion - January 12th.

[TEITS]

GFS has embarrassed itself further, Its now bordering on farcilce, and there remains to be almost zero support for its outcome.

I for one would bet heavily against the 06z verifying.

I would suggest members sit on the fence like me. Based on the ensembles especially the ECM you would have to say the GFS is wrong but what is keeping me on the fence is the UKMO output.

My summary is it is looking likely that the last 10 days of January are going to be colder. However how cold and how prolonged is very uncertain. When you have such a difference between the models, in my experience they are both wrong. Im also very uncertain what is going to happen over the Arctic. Will we see the AO dropping to negative or remain positive like the GFS suggests.

[weathe20]

One thing I've learnt over time is that ignoring GFS is foolhardy. We've been in similiar situations many, many times, indeed even when UKMO and ECM have been solidily against GFS at T+144hrs they have been dragged back into line pretty quickly, almost like a pair of naughty children testing out their boundries with a parent. That's not to say I think GFS it's going to be right on this occasion, but it's not a 90/10 situation or even an 80/20 for my money, indeed I'd suggest it's a 60/40 at best as thing currently stand.

Think you have a point, no point ignoring the GFS because the ECM shows what some people want.

GFS has embarrassed itself further, Its now bordering on farcilce, and there remains to be almost zero support for its outcome.

I for one would bet heavily against the 06z verifying.

Will you be embarrassed if the ECM turns to follow the GFS later today? lol

[Radiating Dendrite]

Can someone tell me if any of this cold being shown on the ECM is in the reliable timeframe? What happens if the GFS still shows the opposite in the reliable, or can this not happen? (newbie here, thanks.)

Its nearing "reliable".

But with the way the models are behaving, reliable is very short indeed, probably just beyond the weekend at best.

[MisfitDog3]

But we don't know if the gfs is going to be 'totally hopeless' yet? It may turn out to be right on the button, time will tell! I am also very puzzled as to why later time frames of 180 hours and 240 hours etc are any more likely to be right when there's consistent cold on the runs then other outcomes? FI is FI no matter what is being thrown out. Personally, yes cold seems the more likely outcome from looking through the various models BUT to be dismissing a major model because it's coming out with something different is a very dangerous game imo....

[ITSY]

agreed - don't expect GFS to suddenly jump the fence and run to the ECM camp, it will probably go somewhere in between. what that means, who knows.

[Earth Wind and Snow]

Can someone tell me if any of this cold being shown on the ECM is in the reliable timeframe? What happens if the GFS still shows the opposite in the reliable, or can this not happen? (newbie here, thanks.)

ECM has cold air starting to flood south as early as T144

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

I would not call this reliable timeframe but it is getting close - if ECM stil lshows this at T96 or even better T72 we could start to get excited

Yes ECM and GFS can show very different outcomes even at T72 - not often but it happens - then one model finally cottons on and moves in to line or sometimes a half way house is the final outcome

hope this explains

EWS

[kold weather]

GFS has embarrassed itself further, Its now bordering on farcilce, and there remains to be almost zero support for its outcome.

Of course at this stage its still very possible that the 06z GFS is right, I for none do have my doubts about it but you never quite know. I'm sure it'll be on the milder side of its ensembles though.

[Weathizard]

The differences between the models currently are staggering, how does this happen given they must be using similar techniques/computing systems, anyone new to weather would just think its a farce, how can there be so much difference between the two 'big guns' The 6z is another to add to the bin bank for me, although its pretty full after the winter so far! The ECM is a lot better, the entire synoptics of the run are better. I do find it unbelievable that we have this much disagreement.

[Zakos]

I would suggest members sit on the fence like me. Based on the ensembles especially the ECM you would have to say the GFS is wrong but what is keeping me on the fence is the UKMO output.

My summary is it is looking likely that the last 10 days of January are going to be colder. However how cold and how prolonged is very uncertain. When you have such a difference between the models, in my experience they are both wrong. Im also very uncertain what is going to happen over the Arctic. Will we see the AO dropping to negative or remain positive like the GFS suggests.

agreed. I think a "close but no cigar outcome" where the cold stays just east of the UK is perfectaly plausible. As you say, there is no guarntee of prolonged cold, and there is of course still uncertainty. But the GFS is an unrealistic outcome, goes against background signals, and the vast majority of forecasting models. GP and some other Netweather team members have discredited the GFS, which gives me further confidence to ignore the gfs at this stage.

[ITSY]

Also, only just looked through it properly - the ECM is jaw droppingly good.

For those who haven't seen them - here is the difference at +120, it's all about the positionning of the high, the placement of the PV, the trough over europe and the strength of the atlantic

Edited January 13, 2012 by ITSY

[Radiating Dendrite]

But we don't know if the gfs is going to be 'totally hopeless' yet? It may turn out to be right on the button, time will tell! I am also very puzzled as to why later time frames of 180 hours and 240 hours etc are any more likely to be right when there's consistent cold on the runs then other outcomes? FI is FI no matter what is being thrown out. Personally, yes cold seems the more likely outcome from looking through the various models BUT to be dismissing a major model because it's coming out with something different is a very dangerous game imo....

But the differences start early on in the runs.

People are not questioning the differences at +300, that always happens.

[cooling climate]

Big differences still between the ECM, UKMO and the GFS model in the relatively short time

frame of t72-t120.

Below is the this mornings discussion from the NCEP which is very important to the downstream

synoptics over Europe and the UK.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

123 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...CLIPPER DIVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE DAY 1...

PREFERENCE: ECMWF

THE NAM AND GFS LOSE DEFINITION OF THIS WAVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC

STATES BY THE START OF DAY 3. WILL RELY ON THE ECMWF...WHICH

HONORS THE TEMPORAL CONTINUITY OF THE IMPULSE BETTER...AND IS

SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET.

This wave helps keep the pattern amplified (meridonal) over the states and then

merges with another piece of energy further north and helping to send WAA up

in the Greenland area. The GFS model as the discussion says loses this wave

of energy and thus keeps a much flatter pattern over the US which of course

means a stronger jet coming off of the eastern seaboard of the US into the

Atlantic.

[weathe20]

agreed - don't expect GFS to suddenly jump the fence and run to the ECM camp, it will probably go somewhere in between. what that means, who knows.

Must admit Im expecting the ECM to jump to the GFS camp!

[Zakos]

Of course at this stage its still very possible that the 06z GFS is right, I for none do have my doubts about it but you never quite know. I'm sure it'll be on the milder side of its ensembles though.

nothing is impossible, but i really do have my doubts aswell. Time will tell...

[Radiating Dendrite]

Must admit Im expecting the ECM to jump to the GFS camp!

Why?

[Earth Wind and Snow]

Big differences still between the ECM, UKMO and the GFS model in the relatively short time

frame of t72-t120.

Below is the this mornings discussion from the NCEP which is very important to the downstream

synoptics over Europe and the UK.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

123 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...CLIPPER DIVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE DAY 1...

PREFERENCE: ECMWF

THE NAM AND GFS LOSE DEFINITION OF THIS WAVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC

STATES BY THE START OF DAY 3. WILL RELY ON THE ECMWF...WHICH

HONORS THE TEMPORAL CONTINUITY OF THE IMPULSE BETTER...AND IS

SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET.

This wave helps keep the pattern amplified (meridonal) over the states and then

merges with another piece of energy further north and helping to send WAA up

in the Greenland area. The GFS model as the discussion says loses this wave

of energy and thus keeps a much flatter pattern over the US which of course

means a stronger jet coming off of the eastern seaboard of the US into the

Atlantic.

This makes me happier that it is likely GFS has this wrong - however until GFS starts showing this in it's charts we have to be wary of the ECM outcome especially as UKMO seems a bit of a half way house

EWS

[nick sussex]

I went out and came back and thought we'd at least see the tiniest of movements to the ECM from the GFS 06hrs run but unfortunately its having none of the ECM and instead reforms the PV!

Oh well we've at least got the NOGAPS to fall back on!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=1

If the ECM is wrong then it will go down as the biggest embarrassment to that model since net weather started especially as its ensembles are rock solid behind the troughing heading se into the UK.

It's all very strange, and I fear for the carnage likely to ensue in here if the GFS is right.

[shedhead]

But we don't know if the gfs is going to be 'totally hopeless' yet? It may turn out to be right on the button, time will tell! I am also very puzzled as to why later time frames of 180 hours and 240 hours etc are any more likely to be right when there's consistent cold on the runs then other outcomes? FI is FI no matter what is being thrown out. Personally, yes cold seems the more likely outcome from looking through the various models BUT to be dismissing a major model because it's coming out with something different is a very dangerous game imo....

Indeed. Trust me we've been here many times before, even with everything seeming pointing directly against GFS's proposed evolution it has still managed to come up trumps in the past - the most vocifious cold lovers would have to acknowledge this fact. This is still a very long way from being a done deal in favour of ECM meteorologically, but at least cronologically we should be a good deal more confident which way this will break by this time tomorrow imo.

Edited January 13, 2012 by shedhead

[k19]

Must admit Im expecting the ECM to jump to the GFS camp!

A lot of people seem to be thinking this at the moment, but looking at the GEFS I can't see how the GFS can be particularly trustworthy right now.

The members are all over the place as soon as we hit the 19th Jan. Not to mention the ECM ensembles don't appear to have a cluster favouring the GFS.

In my personal opinion, I think the UKMO will come in line with ECM, or the ECM and UKMO will meet in the middle, and the GFS will switch its theories suddenly once its 72 hour solution is not met.

[ITSY]

A lot of people seem to be thinking this at the moment, but looking at the GEFS I can't see how the GFS can be particularly trustworthy right now.

The members are all over the place as soon as we hit the 19th Jan. Not to mention the ECM ensembles don't appear to have a cluster favouring the GFS.

In my personal opinion, I think the UKMO will come in line with ECM, or the ECM and UKMO will meet in the middle, and the GFS will switch its theories suddenly once its 72 hour solution is not met.

wow, operational GFS one of the coldest outcomes! certainly it is all over the place which offers some happiness to cold lovers and the ECM troop! the 12z and 18z's should give us a greater clue what respective models are going to do

[Zakos]

That's a very bold statement given that the GFS has many times led the way - that is of course not to say that it is always right - of course it is not.

But you have to say that its modelling around Greenland/Svalbard is often the most accurate, and we will see where the METO are going with their update. If it is indicative of the GFS, then we can be pretty certain that this one is sunk.

if the 06z verifies, i will hold my hands up and say I was wrong. It is a bold statement, but i cant see the ECM and virtually all of its ensembles being wrong at such a close time range. It may usually lead the way, but it has been performing very poorly lately IMO. The 0z i suppose is possible, but i really cant see the 06 veryfying. Lets see how the gfs ensembles pan out...

[Kentish Man]

The GFS modelled the current high pressure spell more clearly and ahead of the other models. To my amateur eyes they have been displaying far more accuracy in recent times than even a few years ago. Until they come on board unfortunately you have to remain sceptical.

[Radiating Dendrite]

wow, operational GFS one of the coldest outcomes! certainly it is all over the place which offers some happiness to cold lovers and the ECM troop! the 12z and 18z's should give us a greater clue what respective models are going to do

That is the 00z GEFS suite and not the 6z.

[nick sussex]

Regardless of what the UKMO 6-10 day outlook comes up with don't assume that its game over for either scenario.

We're not dealing with output in FI and although the UKMO take most lead from the ECM ensembles as they don't run their own past 72hrs they might still leave the door open with some uncertainty in their outlook.

I can't see this not being resolved tonight as the changes start within 96hrs so we'll know either way by then, its going to be a long day for cold and snow lovers, I'd recommend beta blockers for tonights output!

Not to overplay the importance of tonights output but this opportunity needs to be taken if you want to see some snow and cold in the next two weeks, after this we'll have to wait for the effects of the next strat warming to feed through and I'm sure patience has just about run out for most people in here.

Edited January 13, 2012 by nick sussex

[stewfox]

If its a daily model discussion why not have the thread match the day ? Very confusing