Model Output Discussion - January 12th.

[SMU]

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/nogaps/run/nogapsnh-0-144.png?13-00

Is the NOGAPS about to PWN the GFS??

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

NOGAPS in the awful list this evening aswell.

144 nowhere near as good as the 12z

Edited January 12, 2012 by CreweCold

[Tom Montalbano]

Big difference between GFS and the European models. Fast on the heels of that GFS borefest 18z comes the Meto fax at t120.

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20120112/12/ecm500.120.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120112/18/114/h500slp.png

Regards,

Tom

[snowlover2009]

Oh God, there was me being confident about the models agreeing on the blocking tomorrow and then I realise what the day and date is tomorrow. God...

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'll just point out that the NOGAPS and GFS handling of the upstream pattern at 144 is near identical, identical PV and pressure distribution in the Atlantic.

[phil nw.]

The cruical phase is around T96 on the 18z where the jet splits against the block.GFS sends the majority of this energy north keeping the pattern flatter so the potential troughing into Europe never gets going further on.

That`s the area to look at on 00z`s around T84 -we want that energy going south to draw that trough into Europe-as per the ECM.

Edited January 12, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Cheshire Freeze]

http://176.31.229.22...0-144.png?13-00

Is the NOGAPS about to PWN the GFS??

S

Were you looking at the much better 12z NOGAPS Steve

Kudos to GFS if it has this correct and probably goodbye to Jan

Edited January 12, 2012 by CreweCold

[Brum Watcher]

NOGAPS in the awful list this evening aswell.

144 nowhere near as good as the 12z

so The ECM takes the first hit from NOGAPS.

[snowlover2009]

Were you looking at the much better 12z NOGAPS Steve

Kudos to GFS if it has this correct and probably goodbye to Jan

Why are you writing the whole month off, when you told everyone that FI starts at 72 hours? The models are a complete mess atm. Edited January 12, 2012 by snowlover2009

[snowlover2009]

so The ECM takes the first hit from NOGAPS.

I know, its so worrying to think NOGAPS is not agreeing with the better model lol. Edited January 12, 2012 by snowlover2009

[nick sussex]

The latest UKMO fax chart for 120hrs:

http://www.meteociel...fax/fax120s.gif

Certainly not without promise and thankfully nothing like the GFS 18hrs run.

I've had another look at the UKMO and it's really not bad at all and certainly gives support to the ECM, for the GFS to be right both the ECM and UKMO have to be wrong at 96hrs.

Generally the only model that sticks to wrong synoptics for several runs at that timeframe is the GFS, the ECM as we've seen recently has been a bit up and down but theres only one instance I can remember in recent years where its been completely out at 96hrs and thats when it had the UKMO and GFS against it, and that was for just a single output not several runs.

The ECM/UKMO combined at 96hrs is a strong combination, given the big jump in the ECM ensembles to that se tilt jet then I'm hopeful that we'll see at least some backtrack from the GFS tomorrow.

Edited January 12, 2012 by nick sussex

[James M]

Why are you writing the whole month off, when you told everyone that FI starts at 72 hours? The models are a complete mess atm.

He did say IF it has it right, not to say that it will be.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Why are you writing the whole month off, when you told everyone that FI starts at 72 hours? The models are a complete mess atm.

Because if we go down the GFS route there is no quick route to cold. No chance of cold before last week in Jan if GFS verifies, other than cold sectors behind lows if there's enough amplification to the flow.

[snowlover2009]

Fair point. Kept my patience with the models since December, don't know how much longer it can last. For anyone who is interested or just wants a brief round up of the 18z. and ensembles.

A benign mid altnatic ridge, with a cold northwesterly -5 to -8 uppers generally, cold enough for snow, but all look like topplers,and nothing unusual and far cry from the ecm. to be honest. Ok, so it would bring snow, got to say, these scenarios either bring snow showers and a 2cm covering which melts by the next day, before the atlantic ridge nudges its way in. I would rather not to be honest.

The waiting game continues, never fear the gfs will be back to its same old scandi block with -15 uppers ensembles and the ecm back to reality....

Edited January 12, 2012 by snowlover2009

[Zakos]

The 18z ensembles look very interesting. Virtually all of them go against the op,with plenty of runs giving cold, either from the North, North east or east. Although not much support for a sustained cold spell. Theyre surprisingly better than the 12z!

Now the ensembles have been released, the Op looks even more unlikely to verify.

Edited January 12, 2012 by Zakos

[nick sussex]

Because if we go down the GFS route there is no quick route to cold. No chance of cold before last week in Jan if GFS verifies, other than cold sectors behind lows if there's enough amplification to the flow.

I agree with this, I do feel we have to take this opportunity as you don't often get an Arctic high and ridge to the east in favourable positions.

The window afforded by the time lag to the previous strat warming won't last forever, of course the effects of the current warming will feed in later but for now it's really down to this.

When I was in the UK I used to sometimes stay up and watch the GFS come out at 3.30am, now with the time difference 4.30 is just a bit too late but I'm sure some hardy souls will be here for that!

[snowlover2009]

The 18z ensembles look very interesting. Virtually all of them go against the op,with plenty of runs giving cold, either from the North, North east or east. Theyre surprisingly better than the 12z!

Now the ensembles have been released, the Op looks even more unlikely to verify.

I see your point, but there is no northern blocking, without that, then anything cold is going to brief and any lying snow will not last long. Yes there would be snow, but they are far cry from a couple of days ago, which is frustrating. There is not one run I have seen on the 18z, that show any decent heights for the Atlantic ridge to connect to, the ecm has the heights though. If the ECM does fall in line with the gfs tomorrow, then the month is going to be shaping up to how the rest of winter has been. Edited January 12, 2012 by snowlover2009

[Duane S.]

+1 to what Nick said, an ECM/METO combo is a good one at that timescale.

When the GFS is stubbornly sticking to the wrong pattern, it tends not to do slow run-on-run progressive inching towards the Euros. i.e. when it shifts it'll probably jump over at +120 and then go completely and utterly overboard with -15s covering the whole country within 7 days!

[Brum Watcher]

can someone post this ensembles link please...

[Zakos]

I see your point, but there is no northern blocking, without that, then anything cold is going to brief and any lying snow will not last long. Yes there would be snow, but they are far cry from a couple of days ago, which is frustrating. There is not one run I have seen on the 18z, that show any decent heights for the Atlantic ridge to connect to.

Just edited my post before you commented. sorry about that.

Yes, I did notice that. There is little signal, atm, for a sustained cold spell. I dont expect any "real" cold until february. IMO, febraury is going to be by far the coldest month.

Still, plenty of brief easterlies or north easterlies. Barely any support for the op (thank god)

can someone post this ensembles link please...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

click the numbers at the top to view the different perturbations

[SP1986]

Yes even on the numerical ensembles you can see that the majority of the ensembles show an outlook of ridging and troughing with a occasional cold plunge. It's a fairly typical winter pattern in the UK, but it does go against the ECM, so it's not worth reading too much into it until tomorrow runs emerge.

I think ECM will stick by it's run tomorrow, at least initially. I also think the GFS will firm up on its new idea. Consistency matters not at the moment.

[snowlover2009]

Just edited my post before you commented. sorry about that.

Yes, I did notice that. There is little signal, atm, for a sustained cold spell. I dont expect any "real" cold until february. IMO, febraury is going to be by far the coldest month.

Still, plenty of brief easterlies or north easterlies. Barely any support for the op (thank god)

http://www.meteociel...gefs_cartes.php

click the numbers at the top to view the different perturbations

I hope so, I was hoping the winter would make up for such a dire year of weather bar April and the heatwave in late September.

The ensembles have runs going down to -10. They don't really surprise me, as they are probably northerly topplers, if they were cold snowy runs, we would be seeing the ensembles showing -10 for a long duration. Like 2 days ago for example when the outliers were going down to -15 etc. Where as the cold runs just dip to -10 for a few hours, so you can take it they are just cold topplers or from a cold northwesterly.

[damianslaw]

Last post from me tonight. Whilst I bemoaned the GFS in my last post - what I have noticed with GFS is how on occasion it often plumps up a synoptic way beyond the reliable timeframe and sticks to these on a few runs, but then wildly ditches it to something completely different only to go back to the original synoptic within or just beyond the reliable timeframe.

It tends to do this when there is a major pattern change as we are seeing now. So take some comfort here you cold snow lovers, i.e. the southerly tracking jet and easterlies with major northern blocking it was showing a couple of days ago beyond the 240 hr timeframe could very easily resurface on its runs in the next few days but this time within the reliable timeframe and therefore supporting the ECM evolution.

The ECM on the otherhand for a good few days has been showing the same synoptics i.e. a weak PV and propensity for airstream from the east.

[Brum Watcher]

Just edited my post before you commented. sorry about that.

There are a couple at t240 backing the ECM. PT6 as an example.

Yes, I did notice that. There is little signal, atm, for a sustained cold spell. I dont expect any "real" cold until february. IMO, febraury is going to be by far the coldest month.

Still, plenty of brief easterlies or north easterlies. Barely any support for the op (thank god)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

click the numbers at the top to view the different perturbations

[snowlover2009]

Yes even on the numerical ensembles you can see that the majority of the ensembles show an outlook of ridging and troughing with a occasional cold plunge. It's a fairly typical winter pattern in the UK, but it does go against the ECM, so it's not worth reading too much into it until tomorrow runs emerge.

I think ECM will stick by it's run tomorrow, at least initially. I also think the GFS will firm up on its new idea. Consistency matters not at the moment.

I agree fair enough, it means we will get some cold and maybe some snow from the odd plunge. However those set ups are always awkward for snow. People always look forward to it, when the models come in line, but they are always hit and miss. When you get the snow, it either just falls and never settles or it will stick and melt the next day. Nothing unusual, where as ECM runs wouldn't look out of place from 1947, 1963, 1979, 2010. The gfs ensembles and run, fall into the early noughties category for me. But we will see what the models cook us up tomorrow, because lets face it no one has a clue.

PS, when you have the northern blocking to the north and get a very cold north westerly, e.g. December 21st 2009(I think), then fair enough. At least the cold weather is sustained for a few days for the snow to stay and the snow potential carries on. I know I shouldn't moan, if we do get toppler, I will probably be excited, but it would be a far cry from recent runs.

Edited January 12, 2012 by snowlover2009