Model Output Discussion - January 12th.

[Brum Watcher]

At the end of the day, the gfs is currently indicating a brief cold snap at the end of next week followed by a continuation of the weather pattern which has dominated this winter so far. The ecm has caused a lot of excitement, including for me but the reality is likely to be somewhere inbetween, being realistic.

I agree. important next few runs. I am pretty sure we will get a bit more agreement. 12z is a bit more jet biased. so not expecting GFS to change much in favour of cold but possibly more milder interludes and the occ pm air. ECM VS GFS Friday the 13th special. A pub run SCARE maybe later...

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM ens can often be wrong 'en masse' if the trend of the op is also wrong. what is odd here is that the op is now on its 4th, maybe 5th consec run with consistency and each run drags some more members with it. the last two have been rock solid on a norwester T168 and yet gfs suites dont really want to know pre T200. there are a few ens members which fit into the ecm solution but not as many as you would expect. now we are able to see all the ecm postage stamps for each run to day 7, we can make better judgements than used to be the case. this may not be the largest divergence between ncep and ecmwf but it may well be the most significant for our part of nw europe since model watching began. if ukmo 12z at T144 doesnt tip the jet nw/se in an area denmark or west of denmark, i will be very surprised. (and a solution whereby ecm is right with the pattern but a few days too progressive will seem more likely - also, at a later juncture, the overall evolution is likely to be less marked for cold than the ones we have seen past day or two on ecm)

Its really on a knife edge BA,the GFS ensembles are relly not at all kenn on anything like ECM with a much flatter pattern upstream and although ukmo only goes to 144h it doesnt to my eyes looklike offering the kind of progression ECM offers.So,with the METO outlook updated i think we can say they are discounting the ECM because there would be little or no rain for starters.

I mentioned the other day when ECM first brought this NW block into the output it didn't fit with me and i stand by that.Its been a long arduous winter for cold fans for my money the waiting is going to go on.

[TEITS]

That's a very bold statement given that the GFS has many times led the way - that is of course not to say that it is always right - of course it is not.

But you have to say that its modelling around Greenland/Svalbard is often the most accurate, and we will see where the METO are going with their update. If it is indicative of the GFS, then we can be pretty certain that this one is sunk.

Sorry but I have to reply to your post because in my opinion you are being very misleading especially to any newcomers.

At the moment im sitting on the fence and may I suggest so are the Met O. However as the model output can change so can the Met O updates and only recently they were predicting a settled, dry end for the end of Jan, which at the time I disagreed with. If I was going to write a forecast based on the models I would probably write the same forecast as the Met O.

The point im making is at the moment nobody can really say which model is correct. However as ever you seem to support the less cold models and as usual ruling out any cold spell. You know when I first joined this forum I must of been incredibly frustrating because I was always predicting cold weather but these days I tend to be less biased. May I suggest you do the same because if the UKMO,GFS, Met O were predicting a cold spell but the ECM disagreed you would be now saying something like "You can't dismiss the ECM and I feel its correct".

[Frosty.]

Sorry but I have to reply to your post because in my opinion you are being very misleading especially to any newcomers.

I think that's unfair TEITS, the expert opinion today is with a blend of the ecm and gfs output for the expected outcome later next week, still not enough weight to make the ecm outcome a realistic proposition yet.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well the 12z runs will be crucial, and quite possibly crucial as far as the rest of the winter goes.

.

Will they really though? What if 12z runs show exactly or close to what we have from yesterday's 12z's? Then we are in no better position model wise are we?

I think though that where we are heading will become much more apparent over next couple of days because something will have to give by Monday IMO when we get the 144 -168 into 72-96 range....won't it?

BFTP

Edited January 13, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Brum Watcher]

im not very good with understanding the FAX charts. is the t120 in favour of ECM OR GFS. lookong at it looks like support for the ECM to where that HP is, but the fax does show a LP west of ireland, which ECM or GFS dont show. can a knowledgeable one help in explaining the FAX?

[TEITS]

I think that's unfair TEITS, the expert opinion today is with a blend of the ecm and gfs output for the expected outcome later next week, still not enough weight to make the ecm outcome a realistic proposition yet.

Did I say the ECM is correct in my post?

Now isn't the time to really make any predictions which model is correct whether your biased towards cold or mild. In all my time of following the models I have never seen all 50 ECM ensembles disagree with the GFS Ops.

I will add that although the ECM is obviously much better it still isn't perfect. Ideally we need to see greater heights towards Greenland.

im not very good with understanding the FAX charts. is the t120 in favour of ECM OR GFS. lookong at it looks like support for the ECM to where that HP is, but the fax does show a LP west of ireland, which ECM or GFS dont show. can a knowledgeable one help in explaining the FAX?

Just let you know the +96/+120 fax charts are based on last nights 12Z runs. These are normally updated around 10-11pm.

[Frosty.]

Did I say the ECM is correct in my post?

Now isn't the time to really make any predictions which model is correct whether your biased towards cold or mild. In all my time of following the models I have never seen all 50 ECM ensembles disagree with the GFS Ops.

I will add that although the ECM is obviously much better it still isn't perfect. Ideally we need to see greater heights towards Greenland.

Just let you know the +96/+120 fax charts are based on last nights 12Z runs. These are normally updated around 10-11pm.

No but I think you are siding with the ecm but the meto are not, so IB is correct as things stand.

[ICETAB]

I'm not sure if this has been brought up already, but the AO forecast is very poor again. It started forecast neutral/slightly positive over the past couple of days. This does not bode well for ECM to be closer to the mark. I suspect it will back away from northern blocking in the output tonight.

I hope I'm wrong...

[mulzy]

I'm not sure if this has been brought up already, but the AO forecast is very poor again. It started forecast neutral/slightly positive over the past couple of days. This does not bode well for ECM to be closer to the mark. I suspect it will back away from northern blocking in the output tonight.

I hope I'm wrong...

But are most AO forecasts based on the GFS and GEFS?

[Thundery wintry showers]

The GFS's main advantage over the UKMO/ECMWF isn't the handling of pressure over Greenland and Svalbard- rather it tends to handle shortaves better at close range (e.g. various examples of frontal systems in northerly or north-westerly regimes where UKMO/ECMWF underestimated the extent of pools of warmer air, and GFS got them spot on).

My main reason for being sceptical of tthe ECMWF output is that it doesn't appear to have much support from the UKMO either, which at most might evolve into something similar a couple of days later but this would give the next area of low pressure more time to charge across the Atlantic before our cold snap gets underway. It's true, though, that the ECM ensemble support has increased relative to yesterday's.

[TEITS]

No but I think you are siding with the ecm but the meto are not, so IB is correct as things stand.

I despair at times.

If you read my posts I would side with the ECM if it wasn't for the UKMO output. So rather than making predictions im happy enough just to watch this unfold. The Met O outlook doesn't agree with either those members predicting cold or mild. The forecast is really a mixture of both and so are the model outputs.

[danm]

No but I think you are siding with the ecm but the meto are not, so IB is correct as things stand.

So are you suggesting the meto are siding with the GFS? They're on the fence in my opinion.

[snowking]

But are most AO forecasts based on the GFS and GEFS?

The ones most people refer to are indeed GFS based. If you google ERSL PSD map room of teleconnetion indicies this should bring up an alternative NAO forecast - sorry I would post the link but I'm at work on phone

SK

[warrenb]

Yes I noticed that and that would support the low heights around Svalbard shown on the GFS. I'm becoming more convinced that the ECM will backdown tonight with a wide scatter on it's ensembles.

I suspect Ian you know that the AO forecasts are just based on the GFS runs for a certain region.

[ICETAB]

But are most AO forecasts based on the GFS and GEFS?

You might be right. Does anyone know if ECM publish a AO forecast?

[Frosty.]

I despair at times.

If you read my posts I would side with the ECM if it wasn't for the UKMO output. So rather than making predictions im happy enough just to watch this unfold. The Met O outlook doesn't agree with either those members predicting cold or mild. The forecast is really a mixture of both and so are the model outputs.

I read all your posts, infact I read everyones post and I agree it's looking more like a blend of the ecm and gfs rather than all or nothing but we are rapidly approaching the moment of truth, there is still a bit of time left for the outcome to flip to extremely wintry or just for the pattern of the winter so far to carry on.

[nick sussex]

Looking at the upstream pattern across the USA the update to this mornings NOAA discussions directly impact on Europe regarding the progression of energy into the Atlantic:

IN THIS PATTERN...PREFER A LESS PROGRESSIVE LOW/FRONTAL PUSH

ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN US EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK THAN THE GFS/GEFS

MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES THAT ARE NOT QUITE AS SLOW

AS THE 00 UTC ECMWF.

So from that we can take that some middle ground solution maybe found, the ECM 00hrs maybe a bit too slow with energy out of the USA and the GFS too quick which of course impacts on troughing near the UK.

At worst I can see a blended solution of the ECM/GFS, you can see that by looking at the 120hrs outputs across the board, even the UKMO is slower with that energy , indeed the GFS is very much alone with this.

We might be lucky and the ECM is right with its slow progression, at worst perhaps colder conditions and then we have to see how much forcing can be placed on that troughing to sink it.

At the moment I don't see the GFS operationals of recent days verifying.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

All this argueing about what models the latest METO update is sideing with is really quite ridiculous. Take a step back, take a deep breath and read it for what it is, which is basically anything can happen and we don't know for definate yet.

[Frosty.]

So are you suggesting the meto are siding with the GFS? They're on the fence in my opinion.

They are not siding with the gfs as much as they were yesterday, I sense more uncertainty creeping in but the timeframe of the change is now closing in on semi reliable so surely we will have more agreement after the 12z runs are completed this evening.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel...?mode=2&ech=204

i know i posted last night the gfs looked good giving possible wintry weather from jan 19- 27, now it seems to back tracked if we are lucky one day 24 jan

plus i found this on yarhoo a little while ago

A level 2 Cold Weather Alert was issued by the Met Office this morning for the whole country.

“There is a 80% probability of severe cold weather between 00:00 on Saturday and 09:00 on Monday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services.

“A marked temperature change into the weekend as high pressure brings settled but cold conditions. This looks set to persist into next week and the warning is expected to be extended over the coming days.â€

High pressure over Britain will bring very dry air leaving little risk of rain and snow despite plunging temperatures, Met Office forecaster Dan Williams told Yahoo! News on Friday.

By Sunday, the south west is expected to become milder again.

But Tuesday may not bring the end of the chilly spell. The Met Office monthly outlook currently predicts a “risk of colder conditions†returning at the beginning of February.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

They are not siding with the gfs as much as they were yesterday, I sense more uncertainty creeping in but the timeframe of the change is now closing in on semi reliable so surely we will have more agreement after the 12z runs are completed this evening.

LOL, i have heard these phrases like "as ever more runs needed" or "Will be decided by this evening" at least a dozen times on every model run since Monday, and yet there is still no more agreement. The weather will not be rushed and the models will all come into line in there own good time.

I'd be a millionaire by now if I had a pound for every phrase lol.

Edited January 13, 2012 by No balls like Snow Balls

[SnowObsessor90]

The ECM looks like a bit of a downgrade to me on the face of it, is it? and if so would revert to a flat zonal pattern soon after? or is there still potential for some firmer proper blocking to take place?

Sorry, I wouldn't normally ask but in these complex sort of set ups my knowledge is still pretty limited lol.

[SP1986]

There is far too much bickering in here today, if this is what happens when a model is evenly matched, god help us if the GFS starts gaining momentum! Cool down, it is only the model outputs...

Looking at the outputs it is evenly balanced at the moment, at least until one model gives in - it's not going to occur overnight perhaps. On one hand we saw the ECM maintaining its position this morning, and we saw the GFS attempt to move toward the ECM, but forged a different path in the end. I don't think the two models are that different, however the end outcome is, which shows it's not as clear cut as it may seem. I personally hope this model output thing doesn't get resolved because it's exciting, and whether we'd like to admit or not we love these rollercoaster type setups!

[Liam J]

For the love of God, there is a separate thread for as much chat about the models as you like. In the three hours it's taken me to go out for a coffee, I've come back to find 75% of the posts aren't anything to do with the output but a general chat loosely based on models. I'm sure they can all be traced back to a salient point somewhere, but is it really too much to ask that some of you simply use another thread and allow those of us who are trying to find out, even roughly, what's going on to do that without wading through waffle?

If I find it annoying god only knows what it must be like for those not blessed with my patience.

Please keep to Model Disc.Talk about the Met outlook should be for the correct thread.

Thanks folks.

Just a reminder for anyone who didn't have chance to read these earlier posts, you don't want to get on the wrong side of OON and I'm sure the forum team are getting tired of repeating themselves over and over again for the same reasons in the MOD.