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London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread.

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JamesC Rookie

JamesC

Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
Posted

Latest 12z run looks like a downgrade compared to the 06z in the early stages. HP is further to the east meaning the cold uppers take that little bit longer to reach us and I'm guessing that upstream we will see them leave sooner IF the Atlantic pushes in. Incredible the amount of difference 100 miles makes.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Quick question. Where do you find out the dewpoint for your area?

Your going to have to trawl around for some local online weather stations to get a precise and up to the minute figure:

http://www.weatherst....uk/aws_map.htm

This one is close:

http://www.chessingt...co.uk/index.asp

But looks wrong at -8.6°C !!!

NW's is also up the shoot!

http://www.netweathe...type=mind;sess=

Here is a general one:

UKdewpoint.jpg

http://www.ballogiew...kmeteotemp.html

or here:

uk_dewpoints_i1_points_metric.png

http://www.eldoradoc...-dew-point.html

or here for our corner:

Rdtlmetd.gif

Reurmetd.gif

http://www.skystef.b...emperatures.htm

Forecasts are here:

http://www.skystef.be/forecast22.html

Rmgfs038.gif

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damp patch Newbie

damp patch

Posted
  • Location: near Charing ( Mid Kent between Ashford & Maidstone )
  • Location: near Charing ( Mid Kent between Ashford & Maidstone )
Posted

just had sharp burst of graupel - now just v light. temp falling slowly now +2.0c

Hopefully the start of things in what will hopefully turn out to be a great spell of winter weather - finally !!!!

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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

Yeah I don't think my local one is accurate either: 11C???

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Marie Aficionado

Marie

Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: snow cold,storms and heat
  • Location: Brighton
Posted
Thanks coast
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Thanks for that coast. The closest one I saw said -3.3c but that cant be right either could it? :blink:

I think it might actually be close, there are a couple of -4°C around you and I expect these will become the norm later this week!

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Amanzi Explorer

Amanzi

Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Surrey
  • Location: Bramley, Surrey
Posted

I think it might actually be close, there is a couple of -4°C around you and I expect these will become the norm later this week!

Thanks so much for that!

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Jayces Enthusiast

Jayces

Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London
Posted

It's all very exciting and it would be great if we get 100 foot of snow but maybe we should take things one step at a time because of all the perciptation types I believe snow is the hardest to forecast and the most unpredictable.

Looks like some light showers bubbling up to the NE of London heading SW so the capital might get lucky today.

Meto forecast tomorrow has been updated since this morning suggesting more chance of light snow showers in the area so that's a start.

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

" one or two snow showers "

" the odd wintry shower "

" Mainly dry but cold "

Why the hell are these jokers payed out of our tax money?

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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted

Yeah there seems to be some ppn building up and moving in a SW direction.

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Kentish Kiwi Rookie

Kentish Kiwi

Posted
  • Location: Otford/Sevenoaks, NW Kent (Approx. 100m asl); Hometown - Auckland, New Zealand
  • Location: Otford/Sevenoaks, NW Kent (Approx. 100m asl); Hometown - Auckland, New Zealand
Posted

" one or two snow showers "

" the odd wintry shower "

" Mainly dry but cold "

Why the hell are these jokers payed out of our tax money?

To be fair, there really isn't THAT much snow on offer for our region from the models. We expect for the convective potential to upgraded nearer the time but the models are hardly showing a snowfest.

It's perfectly plausible that we do just end up with a few snow flurries. Unlikely, but plausible.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

" one or two snow showers "

" the odd wintry shower "

" Mainly dry but cold "

Why the hell are these jokers payed out of our tax money?

Because they have the responsibility of the lives and property of 62.5 Million people to consider, not just 900 online members who don't depend on every post........

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Pixel Community Regular

Pixel

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Surprises
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
Posted

Looks like a big downgrade from the 12z, mild southwesterlies crashing in by Friday, the block sunk.

Winter's over!

so there it is in black and white folks.. LOL

I think however it may be a more accurate comment to say summer's over

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Buzzit Contributor

Buzzit

Posted
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3
Posted

Looks like a big downgrade from the 12z, mild southwesterlies crashing in by Friday, the block sunk.

Winter's over!

Not a chance ! The important thing is that the HP is further west on every NAE run and further west in comparison to the GFS, this is not going to change... The HP is so massive none of the models can deal with it and do not know how to process energy from the atlantic in relation to the HP. Almost like - "This HP is really strange and should not be here - I will fix this by smashing out of the way with the Atlantic because I do not know what else to do" There is no way that we understand enough or are able to program the models to cover the current synoptics so looking past +48 I find pointless, and +96 only for possible trends

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abruzzi spur Experienced

abruzzi spur

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
Posted

Looks like a big downgrade from the 12z, mild southwesterlies crashing in by Friday, the block sunk.

Winter's over!

I'm sure you're teasing with the WO comment but there are people on here who will be traumatised!

Remember the MO update today - based on that it is not unexpected to see a SW direction come in this weekend, but they were calling considerable uncertainty after that with slight favouring of cold air pushing back from the East resulting in some battleground scenarios.

AS

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Upgrade Rookie

Upgrade

Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
Posted (edited)

Not a chance ! The important thing is that the HP is further west on every NAE run and further west in comparison to the GFS, this is not going to change... The HP is so massive none of the models can deal with it and do not know how to process energy from the atlantic in relation to the HP. Almost like - "This HP is really strange and should not be here - I will fix this by smashing out of the way with the Atlantic because I do not know what else to do" There is no way that we understand enough or are able to program the models to cover the current synoptics so looking past +48 I find pointless, and +96 only for possible trends

i like your rationale. i just hope you're right! But surely models are programmed to deal with this kind of synoptic, it's not that infrequent in winter is it?

Edited by Upgrade
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GoonerGregg77 Newbie

GoonerGregg77

Posted
  • Location: Dagenham East
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Drifting Snow in easterly winds, biting wind chill!
  • Location: Dagenham East
Posted

Oh dear 12z has killed it! Faint chances dwindling away, the Atlantic is a power house this winter and too beat the biggest and most massive Russian high like it is now, well it speaks volumes. We were looking at a fantastic chance of a true 'Beast', but it's nothing but a damp suib!

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Shunter Enthusiast

Shunter

Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
Posted

Shower activity sparking off all over across the South East in the last 30 minutes. Very light and showing as 100% snow on NW radar. Probably light flurries but maybe with a heavir burst. Seems to be tied in with an old occluded front that is pasing over shortly.

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Snow grains falling in Leigh On Sea :acute:

Btw some incredible bad posts in here today.

The cold spell is only just starting and T72 Is FI - Will some of you never ever learn!

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Upgrade Rookie

Upgrade

Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
Posted

Oh dear 12z has killed it! Faint chances dwindling away, the Atlantic is a power house this winter and too beat the biggest and most massive Russian high like it is now, well it speaks volumes. We were looking at a fantastic chance of a true 'Beast', but it's nothing but a damp suib!

that's my fear too. the chance of a lifetime blown !

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