London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread.

[Shunter]

Oh dear 12z has killed it! Faint chances dwindling away, the Atlantic is a power house this winter and too beat the biggest and most massive Russian high like it is now, well it speaks volumes. We were looking at a fantastic chance of a true 'Beast', but it's nothing but a damp suib!

It aint the first time, I've been here 8 years and seen it regularly. Themodels overhype cold and heat, peoples hopes get over inflated and boom.... reality kicks in.

One thing missing from todays Computer models..........reality !

[Snow Queen one]

I think we in the se e of the country will hold onto the cold for longer than the rest of the country and there are a lot of IMBY post when you look at the model thread. The models are not what is going to happen but what may happen so all to play for IMHO.

[Coast]

that's my fear too. the chance of a lifetime blown !

It aint the first time, I've been here 8 years and seen it regularly. Themodels overhype cold and heat, peoples hopes get over inflated and boom.... reality kicks in.

One thing missing from todays Computer models..........reality !

Have a word with yourselves will you??? Not even begun and you are chucking in the towel!!!!!!!

[Snow Queen one]

This always happens on here though Coast. People need to realise that in the model thread they are talking about things that are going to POSS happen in the future not what is happening now. Cold is hard to budge and I am going to enjoy my radar watch from now till Sat and if I don't see any snow then there is always the next time. One run showing a bad outcome depending on your outlook and it is taken as gospel. Madness. Let us see what comes first then moan later man up people.

[lewis028]

this is only the beginning, calm down, im sure it will change come the 0z,

And just has a small snow grain shower, chance of some light snow come the morning..

Edited January 30, 2012 by lewis028

[Coast]

This always happens on here though Coast.

I know, when it's 2 feet deep I'll dig some of these posts out and highlight them again!!!!!

[Buzzit]

i like your rationale. i just hope you're right! But surely models are programmed to deal with this kind of synoptic, it's not that infrequent in winter is it?

Have you seen the model output ? Just joking... My theory is that the models have inherent unintended bias due to not being 'pure' systems. Knowing what our knowledge level is (that we cannot generally forecast with certainty post +48) can you really build a model that will not reflect what happens 8/10 times in any situation ? I personally do not think so.

[Shutterbug Netty]

With all the ups and downs in the model thread today I feel like the guy from 'Airplane'.......... "I sure picked the wrong week to give up smoking" ;o)

Either way it's lovely and chilly out now and I, for one, am looking forward to see what pans out over the next few days! Whatever happens we can't change it, so I'm just going to enjoy whatever comes next

[95 Degrees]

Somehow I remain positive, look how cold it is over France later on this week, any upgrade would put us in the freezer especially being so close to France/Europe. This isn't over until we get the high not make it past Germany.

[GoonerGregg77]

This Met Office & BBC 'Sitting on the fence' and the sheer mentioning of real uncertainty explains the 12z collapsing too me. I am not here to doom monger, it's how it is seeing as the model discussion do exactly what I am doing, go on each run as they come about.

This roller coaster ride is about as bad as the new one they built at Thorpe Park that made the arms and legs come off of all those dummies!

I might be 34 years of age, but this is a crushing blow to our chances.

Sorry to be so downbeat. How can the models recover from this??? I will be gob smacked if they turn around to become 'EPIC' again!

Edited January 30, 2012 by GoonerGregg77

[A Wintry Mix]

Just for the doomers and gloomers

UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 28 Feb 2012:

Some cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average at times. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times here. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average

Updated: 1136 on Mon 30 Jan 2012

As others have said FI is 72hrs just sit back and watch

I guess the ignore button will come in handy.

Edited January 30, 2012 by hopeitsnows

[winter watcher]

john @06kayeya

• · Open
  

@fergieweather Is exeter going to bin the latest UKMO as it is showing the block just evaporating which looks wrong to me

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather

@06kayeya no, they were keen on their GM solution for Fri-Sat & snow potential but we await their new 12z analysis... Interesting times.

[Snow Queen one]

Well GoonerGregg they have done so before and will do so again. I have seen it all before and so have many on this forum. Run to run is not a good way to view the models and I trust what the more experienced posters say. You live in an area which does do very well from streamers unlike me so when you say all is over I wonder why you would you have a better chance than others to see some of the whte stuff when streamers set up and they are not forcast in the models so you might just be in for a surprise before the weekend is out.

[lewis028]

looking at the netweather extra radar, showers are popping up around the region and this is showing as snow..

[teddy]

This Met Office & BBC 'Sitting on the fence' and the sheer mentioning of real uncertainty explains the 12z collapsing too me. I am not here to doom monger, it's how it is seeing as the model discussion do exactly what I am doing, go on each run as they come about.

This roller coaster ride is about as bad as the new one they built at Thorpe Park that made the arms and legs come off of all those dummies!

I might be 34 years of age, but this is a crushing blow to our chances.

Sorry to be so downbeat. How can the models recover from this??? I will be gob smacked if they turn around to become 'EPIC' again!

what's your age got to do with anything?

some people need to chill out a bit.

Edited January 30, 2012 by teddy

[lottiekent]

This was taken at 5pm! Got all excited as it is the first time my weather station has forecast snow in over a year!

Since then the temperature has dropped to 1.2c

[Coast]

I might be 34 years of age, but this is a crushing blow to our chances.

No, it's a temporary blow to your current expectations.....

[Jo S]

Im still very optimistic one minute every body is "Oh yer great winters here" the next its the end of the world,its been the same every day, with our good old Britsh weather,we get what we get,and it changes from day to day,hour by hour,but theres always a surprise in store ,somewhere,tomorrow will prob be a different story again up and down like a yo yo.

[leemondo]

I have to laugh at all the negativity this afternoon, even more so after reading last nights posts first!

the "breakdown" has been forecast for a few days now and if it does happen it will be a brief affair with potential for battleground snow events, the block is not "sunk" as some people like to say, (mainly to get a rise out of others) it too had been forecast to be pushed back before powering back in, again with the chance of more battleground snow, this scandi high is immense and will take alot more shifting from the ever weaker Atlantic, i am all for atlantic incursions, because the snow potential is very good

the models have no idea what is going on after T+48/T+72 so i think a little calm is needed and dont take each run at face value, the met have binned some of there output already in the last couple of weeks due to it being way way off the mark, this could be another wobble.

fingers crossed guys

Edited January 30, 2012 by leemondo

[95 Degrees]

Im still very optimistic one minute every body is "Oh yer great winters here" the next its the end of the world,its been the same every day, with our good old Britsh weather,we get what we get,and it changes from day to day,hour by hour,but theres always a surprise in store ,somewhere,tomorrow will prob be a different story again up and down like a yo yo.

In all honesty, the British Weather has bored me for months, but I agree that we shouldn't give up hope on this Easterly.

[Discombobulation Man]

FWIW, my gut feeling is that the following chart is most representative of tonight's initial foray (or should that be flurry!)

Ha, I see TEITS has snuck in and added a choice blob of snow risk

[Jayces]

I will eat my chocolate hat if we aren't buried in cm's of snow at some point over the next few weeks!

[john pike]

http://www.buienradar.nl/

maybe something later?

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

just looked at the 06 ensembles

the so called warmer air was predicted for the 6th

now showing the 8th

[snow raven]

Those who are disheartened by the latest model out put, please don't be. It's just one run!

No more Winter is over posts please

[Amanzi]

It's bloomin frigid out there. brrr 0.6c already (according to metO the low for 6am is 0c) So I do think this cold is already being underestimated. We just need more of those showers to pop up and a stronger flow... and Coast will be posting the snowcolypse photos we all love!