South Central England Regional Discussion Thread

[Purplepixii]

Yay thanks Nick! You've become our sensible voice of reason who explains complicated model-guessing in plain English - hurrah!

[Andrew snow hope]

Had a few grains I think it could have been a huge storm lasting all of 10 seconds. Must have blown over in the wind.

[Andrew snow hope]

So what's next then, is there some snow on sat any one know?

[Mark Neal.]

Right, as promised, here's my forecast for tomorrow. I'll be taking most of my info from the NMM and NAE models.

Tonight will see cloud spreading from the east into the region thanks to a decaying cold front over eastern areas. This will help prevent a frost developing in most areas although we will see temperatures dipping down to around freezing in most places after initially dipping a few degrees below.

Into tomorrow morning it will be a mainly cloudy start, unlike the clear skies of this morning but it will still be cold, with the cloud preventing temperatures from getting above 2 or 3c. We might see some sunny intervals, especially later in the afternoon and along the south coast but it will stay cloudy for the most part. We're unlikely to see any wintry weather tomorrow although where the thickest cloud persists we may see the odd very light flurry.

Nice analysis will be good to hear your output each evening, giving people on here who are unsure a better look at whats actually going on.

Regards,Mark

[gottolovethisweather]

Right, as promised, here's my forecast for tomorrow. I'll be taking most of my info from the NMM and NAE models.

Tonight will see cloud spreading from the east into the region thanks to a decaying cold front over eastern areas. This will help prevent a frost developing in most areas although we will see temperatures dipping down to around freezing in most places after initially dipping a few degrees below.

Into tomorrow morning it will be a mainly cloudy start, unlike the clear skies of this morning but it will still be cold, with the cloud preventing temperatures from getting above 2 or 3c. We might see some sunny intervals, especially later in the afternoon and along the south coast but it will stay cloudy for the most part. We're unlikely to see any wintry weather tomorrow although where the thickest cloud persists we may see the odd very light flurry.

Thnaks Nick for putting in the effort to do this forecast.

I'm personally hoping something might come of the decaying front which you mention.

The latest radar image suggests the far southeast may get something but as usual it will flirt with our area.

Certainly a cold night initially, with some impressive low dewpoint readings. Currently -2.1c AT, -3.3c DP and a steady barometer reading of 1024.3hpa

Chilly Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

So what's next then, is there some snow on sat any one know?

Take each day as it comes Andrew, too far out to know what the potential is at this stage. Follow the MetO Fax charts as they are updated is the best advice I can give for now.

Anything can and probably will happen then.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

[Nick L]

Thanks folks Now off to the union for a pint or 10

[gottolovethisweather]

So what's next then, is there some snow on sat any one know?

Andrew, you could also read this post with some excellent analysis from Isolated Frost.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72397-model-output-discussion-30th-jan/page__view__findpost__p__2232404

To my mind, this seems to be a bit overegged but then again, the "people in the know" are responding well to his thoughts and I also have a lot of respect for this guy.

Game on, as I said earlier and this COULD well be a long old trawl through February if you're looking for something springlike.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

[Dean E]

Evening!

Had some light flurries again this morning, but didn't amount to much!

From what I can see, the next few days will be growing ever colder with daytime maxima no higher than 0-1c on Saturday along the South Coast and a few degrees below for inland spots.

There is still some chance of a few showers developing because of the occluded front, currently lying just out into the North Sea/ EA. Now there is some indication that these are being underdone by the models and there might be some quite beefy showers developing due to the contrasting upper temps (-8 to -14c by Friday) and the relatively warm North Sea and English channel. This still needs to be firmed up, but its an increasing indication.

The Weekend is where things are looking tricky and rather interesting in my mind, with the Atlantic trying to make inroads again. At the moment from what I can see from the outputs, its looking likely that we may see a battleground scenario again, with the warmer Atlantic air really pushing in... but its looking like the cold air mass just proves too strong for the Atlantic and we are back into a more colder prospect.

Another outcome would be a complete collapse of the High over Russia, but even that situation produces a stronger Colder E'ly air mass 48 hours later...

I must stress anything passed Friday is very uncertain and as we can see, things can be thrown in at any point!

SM

[Polar Bear]

NickL smashing outlook summary there. And what with GTLW input too feel very informed and up to speed. Also Two new words I have learnt this season so far (over a couple of days!) is upgrade and surprises and I so love surprises. You don't get many surprises as an adult these days.

[gottolovethisweather]

I must stress anything passed Friday is very uncertain and as we can see, things can be thrown in at any point!

SM

Another good analysis from you there too. I am rather surprised (careful as it is PB's favourite word) that you are confident as far out as Friday.

I think I'm going to be radar and lamp-post watching for the rest of January and for the whole of February at this rate.

For example, could that precipitation over the London area cause a surprise or two overnight for some?

Loving it, loving it, loving it.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 30, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[katemart]

CUrrently -1C and DP -3.0C and falling in Southampton.

PS - peeps on your FB feed are saying its snowing lightly in London and Biggin Hill. Is that heading this way?

[Andrew snow hope]

Andrew, you could also read this post with some excellent analysis from Isolated Frost.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72397-model-output-discussion-30th-jan/page__view__findpost__p__2232404

To my mind, this seems to be a bit overegged but then again, the "people in the know" are responding well to his thoughts and I also have a lot of respect for this guy.

Looking possible then. Fingers crossed

Game on, as I said earlier and this COULD well be a long old trawl through February if you're looking for something springlike.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

[NO LONGER POSTING]

It does seem that precipitation is getting going a little bit..And look to the North east of London..New PPN arriving...

But like many have said..This is going to be street lamp and radar watching, let's hope there is a few surprises to come FINGERS CROSSED EVERYBODY!!

[Andrew snow hope]

Snow heading west very light though I think should be about an hour from now for light snow for me! I hope

[Polar Bear]

Hey GTLTW

And I am loving loving your posts. Now have seen katemarts post? London. Facebook. Snow? Hmm surprise one for the night. I want some more please as I love surprises. Incidentally am on iPhone so being lazy to check out current temps we still at -2 and dewpoint -3. Can't scroll back on iPhone .very irrating

Pb x

[Polar Bear]

Yes it seems from the london and south east discussion thread some good snow flurries developing. Anyway there was talk of the NMM developing more inland ppn throughout the night. Hmm interesting what is this forums view on that ?

[Andrew snow hope]

Is it possible heading a bit more south biased? Not sure if it going to get here actually :-(

[gottolovethisweather]

I think the NMM is netweather's own model but I may be wrong. :unsure: Anyway, I'm going to bed shortly so let's hope one or two of us wake up to a freak dusting come the morning.

Bye for now from Newbury, where it is -2.3c AT, -3.5c DP and steady barometer reading of 1023.9hpa

Chilly Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 30, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[katemart]

Wind chill is -2.8C and humidity has gone up from 86% to 92% in the past quarter of an hour. Not confident of any ppn making it over here, though.

[Wilks]

Is it possible heading a bit more south biased? Not sure if it going to get here actually :-(

I've just driven back from London, don't get too excited, very grainy nothingness. Hopefully just the start of things to come though towards the weekend which would be nice! Sadly I don't think we are in for much this week other than frosts. perhaps if the reload does happen post the weekend then it could be good!

[Andrew snow hope]

Fingers crossed. Thanks for the report

[Dean E]

Another good analysis from you there too. I am rather surprised (careful as it is PB's favourite word) that you are confident as far out as Friday.

I think I'm going to be radar and lamp-post watching for the rest of January and for the whole of February at this rate.

For example, could that precipitation over the London area cause a surprise or two overnight for some?

Loving it, loving it, loving it.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Well thats the Occluded front I mentioned earlier, its still got some life left. What is going to happen appears to be seen at the moment, but we shall see with time!

SM

[Nick L]

Had some very light snow walking back from the union! (And no, I'm not that drunk!)

[Dean E]

The GFS 18z run does support a rather weak band of PPN travelling westwards during the early hours... the problem is, is this going to be right with the intensity or way out with a generous coating?

SM