South Central England Regional Discussion Thread

[SunnySouthCoast]

It is 2C (36F) here currently and BBC have 9C (48F) forecast for Sunday.

[Polar Bear]

Morning all

I have yet to go out this morning however looking outside I see no ice on the cars and there is a good breeze. So maybe temps above freezing last night. Doesn't match the weather updates on BBC news of freezing temps and watch out for ice. We are supposed to have a bright sunny day today so there is a bonus. Shall look forward to that. Right best get up and go for that swim. Have a good day all and will check back in again tonight. Oh and as for NickL foresast last night. Tut tut. Alcohol or no alcohol that is no excuse you must struggle through on all occasions .

[Polar Bear]

Hey what is our Michael fish doing the BBC south weather this morning!! Good one Michael although you were cut short by the newsreader. Have a word!

[Purplepixii]

I just saw Mr Fish too - had to do a double take but was good to see him on the screen!

Oh & LOL @ Nick L!

[divadee]

Another harsh frost in Christchurch. And it is bitterly cold here. Clear skies all round

[Frank Trough]

more of a "penetrating" frost here this morning (and less ice on the car in Bournemouth this morning than there was at 10pm last night!). Bit of a breeze blowing.

using the METO surface pressure charts there does seem to be a a bit of potential of friday morning - a little trough showing in the south east. might not affect more western parts too much though.

Using the same charts it isn't looking so good for the weekend breakdown now. Hard to see too much snow from this chart (especially along the coastal strip!)

And then who knows after that? certainly a spell of milder Atlantic weather (and if today's output is taken at face value maybe a slightly more extended period of atlantic weather) looks very likely. While the METO longer term outlook remains positive then i'll be positive. I don't expect it to change too much today despite the 00z operational output.

[Joneseye]

My local weatherstation had the min temps of -1.5C at 20:00 yesterday evening after which a gradual increase occured as the winds picked up. The temps then dropped again to -0.9C at 08:00 from a high of 0.4C at 00:14.

The wind and cloud cover certainly prevented a more severe frost. Also note the dry and cold upper air and lower dew points preventing the frost buildup on the cars.

Tonight should be colder, but I doubt it will be as cold as the temps predicted by the GFS.

[gottolovethisweather]

My local weatherstation had the min temps of -1.5C at 20:00 yesterday evening after which a gradual increase occured as the winds picked up. The temps then dropped again to -0.9C at 08:00 from a high of 0.4C at 00:14.

The wind and cloud cover certainly prevented a more severe frost. Also note the dry and cold upper air and lower dew points preventing the frost buildup on the cars.

Tonight should be colder, but I doubt it will be as cold as the temps predicted by the GFS.

That's the key point with the lack of visible ICE and this is of course what can lead to unfortunate accidents, time and time again.

Like the horse man says, the short-term i.e. Friday, could provide a surprise before the envitable breakdown.

I'm expecting a cold day today at my locality as it's -1.4c as I type this, clear blue skies and yet COLDER air coming in from the EAST over the next 36-48 hours. As ever, keep an eye on the satellite images for likely developments heading our way from the continent. I provided a link or two in yesterdays's posts which should come in useful.

As for Nick L's extravagant behaviour, was this at the tax payers expense?

Frosty Regards

gottolovethisweather

[SunnySouthCoast]

Low of just 1C (34F) last night & 4C (39F) at the moment.

[Nick L]

Again, numerous apologies for the...ahem...rearranging of priorities last night. I'm a student, what do you expect?

But anyway, it looks like we will remain in the cold and dry regime until Saturday - and that's where the real headache begins (and I don't just mean this hangover). I really do not envy the Met Office right now, we could get nothing but rain or we could get a good frontal snow event. We probably won't know until it's on top of us. But Saturday night could certainly be one of those all-nighters!

I will definitely be staying in this evening so if once again I fail to provide a forecast, please demand that I am stripped of my forum team role...

Edited February 1, 2012 by Nick L

[Nick L]

Right then, time to do my promised forecast before going off to my Atmospheric Physics assignment...later on I'll go into the backtracking and upgrades shown overall by the models tonight. Saturday/Sunday could be very interesting indeed.

Anyway, tonight will be another freezing cold night with a widespread frost, temperatures widely getting down below -4c. But again it will be a dry one with no snow in the forecast for the immediate future. Into tomorrow and it's a repeat performance of today really, bitterly cold start with glorious sunshine. We may see a bit of cloud rolling in off the channel along the south coast but on the whole we will have clear skies. Thankfully it won't be as windy today so the windchill won't be anywhere near as horrific. Nevertheless it will be bitterly cold, temperatures barely getting above freezing, some areas might not even manage that.

Looking a little further ahead and Friday is looking much the same with another frosty start followed by a very cold but sunny day.

The weekend is where things are getting very messy indeed. The Atlantic will try and make inroads, but the cold doesn't look like giving up without a fight. At the moment it looks likely we could have a significant snowfall event on our hands, especially for those in the east of our region. The cold air seems like it will linger in the SE of the UK and then start spilling back westwards. But I must stress this is all subject to change, just a few miles difference in the positioning of the block to our east and its strength could mean the difference between just a load of cold rain and several inches of snowfall.

I'll keep you all posted.

[Purplepixii]

Thanks Nick

I just braved the model discussion forum and was getting rather confused at the seemingly sudden elation & talk of significant snow - honestly I can't keep up with those models, they make my head hurt! Looks like the weekend could be interesting though!

[Nick L]

Thanks Nick

I just braved the model discussion forum and was getting rather confused at the seemingly sudden elation & talk of significant snow - honestly I can't keep up with those models, they make my head hurt! Looks like the weekend could be interesting though!

No worries

I don't envy the folks at the Met Office right now, it seems they have no idea either!

[Joneseye]

As ever the modelling of any breakdown in the British Isles is a headache for forecasters everywhere. Some really low dew points out there at the moment down to -10.6 at my local station under clear skies. Might have to leave the heating on tonight!

[Polar Bear]

Thanks NickL great summary n hope you are eating lots of carbs to get you through the hangover and this cold. You can see the dilemma METoffice faced with as two scenarios of the weekend are provided to us. You can always tell their maybe a problem when weather forefathers start explaining the set ups to us all and then sling in a keep tuned into your local forecasts... We are that's you NickL... Pressure!

GTLTW thanks too for the reminder about dry air and riskier roads. We must take heed!

Jonesye! Good to see you.

Right I am going to try n understand the model discussion thread. ( I won't though).

[Joneseye]

Gotta pick the nipper up from Marlow on Saturday, I had best pack the blankets, shovel, camp fire to go along with the kitchen sink that we need to go anywhere these days.

I mentioned it to my wife and she shrugged like she's either heard it all before and doesn't trust my amateur judgement or she thinks I am the over protective father.... women :-D

[Polar Bear]

Sorry chaps for some typos on my post by the way. Flipping iPhone autocorrect. And by two scenarios offered I meant to add those on BBC News .

[Nick L]

Thanks NickL great summary n hope you are eating lots of carbs to get you through the hangover and this cold. You can see the dilemma METoffice faced with as two scenarios of the weekend are provided to us. You can always tell their maybe a problem when weather forefathers start explaining the set ups to us all and then sling in a keep tuned into your local forecasts... We are that's you NickL... Pressure!

GTLTW thanks too for the reminder about dry air and riskier roads. We must take heed!

Jonesye! Good to see you.

Right I am going to try n understand the model discussion thread. ( I won't though).

After a curry and some sugary drinks I'm raring to go again :lol:

I've never seen the BBC talk about something in advance that is so uncertain, it certainly says that they believe it could be significant. The number of times the word "probably" appears in the short-mid range forecasts on the Met Office site tells you all you need to know!

Right then. Time for a cup of tea, pretending to do my assignment and watching the football

Edited February 1, 2012 by Nick L

[Joneseye]

Sorry chaps for some typos on my post by the way. Flipping iPhone autocorrect. And by two scenarios offered I meant to add those on BBC News .

the grammar police know where you live... I know the feeling on this iPad it drives me bonkers

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm once again lurking between the chat room and this thread tonight and I'm been posted this link from LL, please do take a look.

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/ding-ding-mild-air-cold-air/482

To reiterate Liam's most important point to remember is this.

The difficulty with weather computer models is that they are often too eager to push cold air out of the way. Cold air is dense and digs in at the surface, making it reluctant to move very quickly.

Wherein their forecasting problem lies. Having said this many times before as have others, where the front STALLS (currently a 60% plus chance IMO) and IF it does (currently a 40% chance of clearing the UK), there is a chance for massive disruption.

Still game on and I'm personally looking forward to a long drawnout February.

Chilly Wishes

gottolovethisweather

[Dorsetbred]

OK, I'm back from bonnie Scotland did I miss anything exciting, or has the up and coming flood or warm air doused all high spirits

[Stoxs]

taking infomation tonight from the ECM charts .

Some decent upgrades fro the cold to continue in our area.

From around 40% cold -60% mild , i would now say 60% cold- 40% mild to be over us by the end of the weekend.

This has also caused the warm front heading in from the west to not get as far east as first thought.

A couple of days ago this front was making it well into mainland europe, tonights charts are showing this front to make it maybe to the north sea.

This is a big shift and is backed up by our own forcast model the UKMO.

Be cautious for a few more days folks the weekend is still way off nailed but to keep the cold influence we need future runs to hold where they are or not make it as far east.

If the front dosn`t make it as far east we may stay in very dry air from the continent, dry but cold.

[Polar Bear]

Just peeked at Model discussion thread and I see OMM has made some comment. Most of you would be better at interpretating than I - I am I have to admit confused. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72418-model-discussion-1st-feb/page__st__120

[Polar Bear]

the grammar police know where you live... I know the feeling on this iPad it drives me bonkers

LOL...did you notice that according to i, we dont have weather forecasters, but weather forefathers...

[gottolovethisweather]

Relinking OMM's post here as it wasn't quite where Polar Bear suggested.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72418-model-discussion-chat-and-commentary-1st-feb/page__view__findpost__p__2236645

I'll have a read.

gottolovethisweather