South Central England Regional Discussion Thread

[*Stormforce~beka*]

is that THE Michael Fish ? I hope so - my hopes will be raised massively !

Imposter lol. The man himself is here ... http://forum.netweather.tv/user/8211-michael-fish/

[flyer]

Meto have now put their cards on the table. Well some of them anyway. Still subject to change though. But a bit of insurance as they say to low levels so presume we are looking at uniform temp level throughout.

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

So at present time it is looking like 5cm to the left and northwards anf 5-2cm to the right.

Edit : OK plus the slow moving bit from SE section 5-10cm. So looking at the overlap region around a line north centred I.O.W you/we/me could get a sizable dump.

Here's lookin at you kid. B)

Edited February 2, 2012 by flyer

[Andrew snow hope]

METO Warnings up

[Joneseye]

I must say it's good to read the cautiously optimistic posts in this thread. Nothing wrong with adding extra caution in based on local knowledge for coastal areas IMO.

Somewhere on the frontal boundary is gonna get a right dumping especially if we get a stalled or decaying front. My only fear is that the embedded cold is so hard to shift that the front doesn't make inroads as far as is currently expected, but this only increases our chances of an all snow event and may lead to a better longer term evolution with further bites of the cherry.

If I am being really greedy I would like a massive dumping from about 2300 on Sat evening through to about 0800 on Sunday morning followed by sunshine and snow flurries. That's not too much to ask is it?

[SunnySouthCoast]

I see, when zoomed in on 'BETA', that the Met Office warning areas for snow Saturday and Sunday do seem to 'skirt' the extreme coast & leave out the Isle of Wight altogether. Looking at the updated forecast for Portsmouth it does indeed show winds from a southerly direction throughout the weekend, which would mean rain/sleet for those right on the coast itself.

[Adamjas]

Two Hampshire County council vehicles have just delivered and filled a salt bin opposite my house - and this has never happened in the 6 years I've lived here - I'm hoping this is a sign of something exciting to come....

[EML Network]

I'm having a hard time figuring all of this out, being from Brighton... the GFS Precipitation charts show that the further south and East you are, the better the chances of having an all snow event, and the BBC ''Map'' agrees, anything West of here looks like rain, and anything East snow.

The main BBC Forecast today didn't go any further than Saturday evening, and at that point, it had the Midlands seeing snow, rain from Southampton West, but the snow line creeping ever southwards almost reaching the Coast at around about Bognor, which didn't help me, because presumably any precipitation I will see here, will be overnight on Saturday / Sunday .

The Main NW forum seems to think the Precipitation will be shunted West in any case, and might not reach this far East.

So my point is that whatever model I look at, whatever forecast I look at , I seem to be in the middle of it al, neither one thing nor the other, or a bit of both, none at all, or a total wipe out, has anyone got an idea of if Brighton is likely to see any snowfall, say about 1 1/2 miles inland, and 100 metres above sea level ?

[flyer]

Hope this helps

[Frank Trough]

I see, when zoomed in on 'BETA', that the Met Office warning areas for snow Saturday and Sunday do seem to 'skirt' the extreme coast & leave out the Isle of Wight altogether. Looking at the updated forecast for Portsmouth it does indeed show winds from a southerly direction throughout the weekend, which would mean rain/sleet for those right on the coast itself.

ha! yes i noticed that. I was hoping they'd just forgotten to draw round the Island but i don't think so....

i'm certainly not giving it up, though. There will be a few more twists and turns long before the front gets anywhere near us...and then maybe how heavy the precipitation is might make a difference?

[PompeyFC]

to be fair sunny - this far out there no way on this earth they can get it that accurate - a slight change in the positioning and it will change completely

[Becoming More Irritating]

Hi i think there has been a mistake! i think a well intentioned admin has changed my display name, i would be grateful if it was changed back. thankyou.

[SLEETY]

Still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast.Going to have to wait at least another 24 hours before we know where it will snow or not.This is going down to the wire.The slower the front moves the greater the chance of it being snow and staying as snow.Some where will get buried that's for sure

[Becoming More Irritating]

agreed i think for once us southern spiners are actually going to be in one of the best positions (not too warm but not too far from the precipitation) Michael Fish

[IanM]

agreed i think for once us southern spiners are actually going to be in one of the best positions (not too warm but not too far from the precipitation) Michael Fish

I think you might want to remember that Michael actually works with us Joshua... You aren't really being very convincing, or clever, or getting any nearer to having a better user name.

[gottolovethisweather]

0c already here with -6.6c dewpoint which was briefly down to -7.8c at one stage.

Coldest night of the year incoming.

GFS 12z rolling out and is as you were up to the snow event, excepting the angle of the Jetstream which seems more favourabl to me.

Most outputs suggest we will be in milder air by Tuesday 7th February, but even if we are, there would be plenty of lying snow about in the prone areas to negate this effect.

I would confidently predict a cold February based on all the signals out there and the right folk are also hinting at the same thing.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Nick L]

12z very good for the east of our region, nudged further west and it remains as snow throughout

[sclarke]

Yep, latest models showing it being very good for eastern central southern areas (models showing the front shifted a little further west) - hampshire could get a pasting, but we'll have to wait and see....still alot of time for change!

Edited February 2, 2012 by sclarke

[gottolovethisweather]

12z very good for the east of our region, nudged further west and it remains as snow throughout

Hi,

A question for Nick L or anyone else?

As I'm watching the 12z unfold, my focus is on the Jetstream and upper air temperatures, would someone post a chart or analysis which suggests where the fronts are likely to be at a given time. For example, how long is this event likely to continue for. I'm imagining it will stall somewhere nearby but the duration of the precipitation would then be quite epic of some.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Nick L]

Hi,

A question for Nick L or anyone else?

As I'm watching the 12z unfold, my focus is on the Jetstream and upper air temperatures, would someone post a chart or analysis which suggests where the fronts are likely to be at a given time. For example, how long is this event likely to continue for. I'm imagining it will stall somewhere nearby but the duration of the precipitation would then be quite epic of some.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Unfortunately I'm just on my way out to play football, if I have enough time between getting back and going to the pub quiz I will

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I have a good feeling I will get a good dumping of snow where I live :-)

[gottolovethisweather]

This is the latest MetO video for the weekend, for those folk who haven't seen it yet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxTrOv129Bg&feature=uploademail

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[coxxy22]

looks like the met office has blown a fuse lol cant see any warnings says its unavalible lol

[gottolovethisweather]

And yet another analysis here.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

[sclarke]

Hi gottolovethisweather,

Really enjoy reading your posts on here....as an experienced member, what was the run up like to the events in the South last year, and the year before? I seem to remember last years significant fall in December was caused by a trough and channel low?

Just trying to see if there are any similarities with the current model output, and what proceeded the events last year.

cheers!

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi gottolovethisweather,

Really enjoy reading your posts on here....as an experienced member, what was the run up like to the events in the South last year, and the year before? I seem to remember last years significant fall in December was caused by a trough and channel low?

Just trying to see if there are any similarities with the current model output, and what proceeded the events last year.

cheers!

Hi sclarke,

Please don't overdo this experienced member bit as I'm no different to most folk, who are keen to listen and learn. :blush: As for last year I can't remember the exact synoptics but I'm sure other folk will. Bringing up experience of past events can be a useful guide as local effects can determine who gets what, when it comes to all kinds of weather. Speaking from experience from member's memories of epic snowfalls I would say the following.

Scenario 1 - A slowmoving channel low would produce copious amounts of snow on its northern edge with my locality being the northern limit. My area wouldn't get much at all but the downs to my southwest would do ok. This would favour most folk in here who are located south of the M4, say from Dorset eastwards.

Scenario 2 - A stalling front stuck over Reading, i.e. slightly to my east would be best for my location. Places such as North Hampshire, WIltshire,West Berkshire, Oxfordshire etc would also do well out of this scenario.

Scenario 3 - If the front stalls out west of my locality, e.g. Salisbury way. Only places such as South and West WiItshire, Somerset and Dorset would be suited by this.

All the above summises, that the conditions are suitable for a snow only event in our region. The reality will be somewhat different nearer to the time and let's await more outputs and the all important MetO Fax charts. The important thing I take from all this is that the frontal precipitation remains heavy (least not forget, its hitting a 1060hpa block) and that it does NOT steamroller through and STALLS over all our heads.

As an aside, I like the idea of settled snow ahead of me in the southeast come Saturday, which should make for some perfect ingredients. It should be noted that the MetO appeared to be downplaying the precipitation amounts, which is rather strange!

As a matter of fact, I would personally choose Scenario 2, what would anybody else choose?

No doubt, there will other possibilities but I am choosing to ignore them for now.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather