South Central England Regional Discussion Thread

[PompeyFC]

One question though and I haven't looked yet, but does that correlate with the passing of the front, or even stalling of the front? This of course, would be a CRUCIAL factor and furthermore the more SNOW forms and settles, the above would most likely become irrelevant. Guys n gals, please don't look for specifics as this will be misleading for others. Thanks gottolovethisweather

quoting what the model shows fella. At the point the precipitation is heaviest according to M-Europa on 06z Uppers -2/-3 Dew Point 0/1 2m Max 1/2 However its impossible to say with any accuracy until Saturday morning I reckon how far west /East that front will be and even then its not a given as to how it will react with the cold dense air when it does arrive as you said. What would be nice is a stalling front right over hants / dorset Edited February 2, 2012 by PompeyFC

[Slippery When White]

Hi Hoops.

Yes I know Weymouth relatively well and it does have its own microclimate as do a lot of these south coast locations. Knowing your local patch is also very valuable and this is precisely where brave predictions for specific locations in the MOD thread can go awry.

No point in guessing whom will miss and whom will get serious snow at this stage.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

I should add that this is only my 3rd winter model watching (I have had a life long interest in the weather) so I am learning loads by reading different peoples ideas and theories, whether it be for mild, gales, cold or anything else our weather throws at us....any pointers anyone can give me for things I may not have considered or missed are always welcome. :-)

[SLEETY]

Well latest forecast seemed to have the snow stalling in the se with rain further west.Looks where I live is right on the boundary between snow and rain,how frustrating ,if your further west than say Worthing it looks like rain.Crazy situation,I'm sure it will change anyway.

How do you find the dew points on wetterzentrale?

Edited February 2, 2012 by SLEETY

[Purplepixii]

although I hope I don't get chased by a goose again like yesterday...

[Becoming More Irritating]

Dont worry it will be snow for all southerners for sure!

[PompeyFC]

is that THE Michael Fish ? I hope so - my hopes will be raised massively !

[Tim Bland]

Lol will their be a hurricane with this snow as well? Of course it isn't Michael Fish!

[Wilks]

Our area can take a shift of this front west or east at the moment (someone else mentioned this earlier - sorry can't remember who now typing this!) as it stands so no need to be panicking about details yet. -3 uppers in this situation is ok, remember by Saturday night we've got a very decent thick cold airmass embedded so dewpoints that look marginal under normal circumstances (i.e arrivign with the cold air) in effect shouldn't be as we already have the cold. Obviously any higher than -3 then yes it starts to look less uncertain. The models will play around with this over the next 2 days shifting things west and east back and forwards on each run. Ultimately I think a last minute push west is on the cards but I also think the ppn area will be very large and effect 75% of the UK. I fully expect to see wide spread snowfall and snow reports over night Saturday. That's not a ramp either, I do like a bit of snow but I'm a summer person and I'll take heat and strong sunshine over any other weather all day long, I would quite happily move to the southern hemisphere at the end of September each year and return to the UK in April! If I want snow, I get on a plane and go skiing in it each year and that's enough of a snow fix for me each season but experience and 25 years of chart viewing and living through the 80's tells me this one is going to be good for those that love snow - I'll even go out on a limb here and say those of you on the coasts wont have an issue either.

[Becoming More Irritating]

cant say :winky:

[PompeyFC]

Lol will their be a hurricane with this snow as well? Of course it isn't Michael Fish!

I know - I know - he does work with Netweather though giving forecasts as far as I remember - haven't seen one of late but I did see him giving a forecast on tele recently - is he back on our screens ?

[Tim Bland]

I know - I know - he does work with Netweather though giving forecasts as far as I remember - haven't seen one of late but I did see him giving a forecast on tele recently - is he back on our screens ?

This poster has recently changed their name from "Snow Nipple" Go on the profile link and see previous post. If it was Michael Fish and he wanted to be "secret quirell" WOuld he call himself michael fish and put a picture up?

Back on topic - East of Isle of White Looks OK west is snow to rain ATM but this could change. Sweet spot is East Oxon up to MK etc

[Becoming More Irritating]

blast my cover is blown! apologies for getting that storm forecast wrong back in the 80's!

[PompeyFC]

latest metoffice weather forecast for Hampshire and right down to Brighton is heavy rain Saturday night - Updated: 1058 on Thu 2 Feb 2012

plenty of time for change I hope

[Frank Trough]

blast my cover is blown! apologies for getting that storm forecast wrong back in the 80's!

but you didn't get it wrong - technically it wasn't a hurricane.

Anyway, back to the weekend.......i can't believe i chose this weekend to go to the Isle of Wight! i guess as a worst case scenario the higher ground along the downs might have a better chance IF the rest sees rain or snow to rain.

all just speculation at this point of course - first thing to do is actually get the precip in our area and then we'll see what happens.

this chart is interesting (i think) for us:

wouldn't that tripple point in the west of our area mean that the angle of attack for here is slightly better? i.e. negatively tilted? still just maintaining a south east flow?

of course, that might all be nonsense.

[Dean E]

but you didn't get it wrong - technically it wasn't a hurricane.

Anyway, back to the weekend.......i can't believe i chose this weekend to go to the Isle of Wight! i guess as a worst case scenario the higher ground along the downs might have a better chance IF the rest sees rain or snow to rain.

all just speculation at this point of course - first thing to do is actually get the precip in our area and then we'll see what happens.

this chart is interesting (i think) for us:

wouldn't that tripple point in the west of our area mean that the angle of attack for here is slightly better? i.e. negatively tilted? still just maintaining a south east flow?

of course, that might all be nonsense.

This reminds me of January 2010... Low developed over the SW transferred into the Channel later that day and the rain we had, quickly changed of to very heavy snow. Seems this could be a repeat but this time, it looks much more organised!

Edited February 2, 2012 by SnowMania

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

blast my cover is blown! apologies for getting that storm forecast wrong back in the 80's!

Mr Fish you look like a 80's porn star

Best chance of seeing snow will be the further North and East you are in the region.

Edited February 2, 2012 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Frank Trough]

This reminds me of January 2010... Low developed over the SW transferred into the Channel later that day and the rain we had, quickly changed of to very heavy snow. Seems this could be a repeat but this time, it looks much more organised!

i hope you're right! i was in Eastleigh that evening and it started as rain. By the time i got to junction 7 on the M27 it was very definitely snow! i didn't really get beyond junction 8...

[SunnySouthCoast]

Historically in these set ups (with milder air pushing in from the west hitting colder air) Portsmouth has got sleet/rain. The winds will switch round to a southerly feed (SW,S,SE) making it extremely marginal for the coast itself. I don't even recall many times where it has started as snow then turned to rain here, usually it's just rain in these situations.

Portsmouth, like Weymouth, also has major disadvantages when it comes to snow. Portsmouth (most of the city) is situated on an island, so is completely surrounded by the sea. It is also completely flat and again protected by a hill to the north (Portsdown Hill).

A couple of miles inland things can be different though, it is just Portsmouth itself that often gets rain while just inland can have a snowfest.

I hope I am wrong and that we get lots of snow, but I don't want to view the weekend with rose (or snow) tinted spectacles!

[SLEETY]

latest metoffice weather forecast for Hampshire and right down to Brighton is heavy rain Saturday night - Updated: 1058 on Thu 2 Feb 2012

plenty of time for change I hope

Think they are computer generated,so not entirely accurate

[Dean E]

Morning everyone!

I've just spent the last hour trawling through all the models to see the current predictions and come a to a close comparison. Its now looking likely we are in a very good spot for this event, the current output would support very cold uppers (around -5c West of Dorest and -7 to -9c East of Hampshire/Dorset border aprrox) which is a very encouraging sign!

There is still a problem though, using the lastest MetO Faxs' you can see that the Southern Coast will have a warm front followed by a cold front, while Northern parts of this region will have an occluded front. This maybe the difference between rain and snow for the coasts as we tend to have frontal snow from warm fronts rather than all snow. But if the cold front catches up, which is predicted by some models, then it maybe a whole different outcome!

The other outcome that's becoming apparent is a Channel low developing, but at the moment this is very low confidence.

Winds for Coastal areas are slightly worrying for places like Weymouth and Bournemouth, as here the wind will likely by S or SE. But its a much better direction that was forecast earlier, which was SW!!!!! From Hampshire eastwards, the winds are likely to be E, which is very VERY promising.

Again I must stress that this is only what its looking at at the moment. As GTLTW and other members have said, its going to be a nowcasting event and I personally still believe that these fronts will stall somewhere over this region and really struggle to get into the far SE.

SM

[Dean E]

Historically in these set ups (with milder air pushing in from the west hitting colder air) Portsmouth has got sleet/rain. The winds will switch round to a southerly feed (SW,S,SE) making it extremely marginal for the coast itself. I don't even recall many times where it has started as snow then turned to rain here, usually it's just rain in these situations.

Portsmouth, like Weymouth, also has major disadvantages when it comes to snow. Portsmouth (most of the city) is situated on an island, so is completely surrounded by the sea. It is also completely flat and again protected by a hill to the north (Portsdown Hill).

A couple of miles inland things can be different though, it is just Portsmouth itself that often gets rain while just inland can have a snowfest.

I hope I am wrong and that we get lots of snow, but I don't want to view the weekend with rose (or snow) tinted spectacles!

I do know, Portsmouth has and can do very well from a SE wind... But an E'ly is the best for you down there!

[Frank Trough]

Historically in these set ups (with milder air pushing in from the west hitting colder air) Portsmouth has got sleet/rain. The winds will switch round to a southerly feed (SW,S,SE) making it extremely marginal for the coast itself. I don't even recall many times where it has started as snow then turned to rain here, usually it's just rain in these situations.

Portsmouth, like Weymouth, also has major disadvantages when it comes to snow. Portsmouth (most of the city) is situated on an island, so is completely surrounded by the sea. It is also completely flat and again protected by a hill to the north (Portsdown Hill).

A couple of miles inland things can be different though, it is just Portsmouth itself that often gets rain while just inland can have a snowfest.

I hope I am wrong and that we get lots of snow, but I don't want to view the weekend with rose (or snow) tinted spectacles!

i can't remember the year, but i remember as a child (that would make it sometime in the early/mid 80's) being in portsmouth shopping and it was snowing. Half way across the solent on the hovercraft going home it turned to rain and in Ryde it had just been rain all the way through.

like you say, in our neck of the woods little details can make massive differences. I would be feeling much more confident if i was visiting basingstoke at the weekend and not the Island!

[Mark Neal.]

I'll be doing a all nighter Saturday, hoping to see the snow to rain, futher west 35 miles...

[Kiwi]

i can't remember the year, but i remember as a child (that would make it sometime in the early/mid 80's) being in portsmouth shopping and it was snowing. Half way across the solent on the hovercraft going home it turned to rain and in Ryde it had just been rain all the way through.

like you say, in our neck of the woods little details can make massive differences. I would be feeling much more confident if i was visiting basingstoke at the weekend and not the Island!

Pompey does have the distinct disadvantage of being low lying, next to the sea, and sheltered by Portsdown Hill to the north.

But....big snow events can happen...for those that know Pompey back in the very late 70s I was at what was then Great Salterns school ...(now Portsmouth College?)...and I remember walking to school along Tangier Road ...on top of a 5ft hedge which was buried under a snowdrift!!

If that unlikely scenario doesn't come off this weekend ...you could probably rely on Butser Hill.

Meanwhile here in North Hampshire, looking at the last few model runs we look to be ideally placed for some significant snow on Saturday evening/Sunday morning. But I'm keeping everything crossed given how marginal the setup is...50km either way could make all the difference and we've still got more than 48hrs for things to change.

[PompeyFC]

the GEFS Ensembles for the 6z are not good for hampshire

Will be looking towards the ECM 12's / FAX / 12Z charts for some better news. It will change for better or worse that is almost guarenteed