South Central England Regional Discussion Thread

[gottolovethisweather]

I really think that it will be game on for us.

We have very cold DENSE air pushing West at the same time saturated mild air pushing East. There is only really one way that this will go, The Atlantic push is going to go up over the top of the cold, this will happen overnight. The result of this will be a snowfest for all, including coastal districts.

Hi Greybird,

I admire your instincts, but let us please keep things in perspective as the model outputs are currently suggesting snow accumulation in the region of 2 to 4 inches.

Having said this, I do feel the POTENTIAL is being understated and should it STALL then you can possibly add many more inches in the affected areas.

Further potential for deep cold and snow is likely as we head into February, more especially for folk in the Southeastern and Eastern regions of the UK.

Game on as you say.

gottolovethisweather

So what depths will we see potentially in

Newbury

Reading

Guildford

Poole

Portsmouth

Any thoughts?

See my post above re: current expectations from the forecasts so far.

Edited February 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Purplepixii]

Update from me: temp -2.5c (windchill -6.6c), dewpoint -8.7, pressure 1080.3

[Slippery When White]

After 2 nights of hitting exactly 0C I finally recorded my first negative temperature of this winter last night of -2!

Current temp -1.2

DP -5.4

[Andrew snow hope]

Anyone watching winter road rescue on channel 5. It's making me think be carefully for what you wish for!!

[Barometer Obama]

Out of interest, what was the setup prior to the huge snowfall in the hampshire area last December? I didn't follow that on here, so haven't got a clue what the models were saying then.

I can't see anyone answered this and I'm gradually catching up with todays events and trawling this forum...

There were 2 snow events for S Hants in Dec 2010, the first was the best. The block was secure with a Greenland & Scandi high.

LP was centred over europe and a short wave was spawned. It was my favourite night on this website (what a saddo) as we couldn't see it coming, ie there was no precip that came across the channel. The instability just pepped up in Kent and then gradually spread west giving us very fine but persisitent snow...6 inches in fact.

Anyway, back to Feb 2012, very different.

BO

[Barometer Obama]

Hi sclarke,

Please don't overdo this experienced member bit as I'm no different to most folk, who are keen to listen and learn. :blush: As for last year I can't remember the exact synoptics but I'm sure other folk will. Bringing up experience of past events can be a useful guide as local effects can determine who gets what, when it comes to all kinds of weather. Speaking from experience from member's memories of epic snowfalls I would say the following.

Scenario 1 - A slowmoving channel low would produce copious amounts of snow on its northern edge with my locality being the northern limit. My area wouldn't get much at all but the downs to my southwest would do ok. This would favour most folk in here who are located south of the M4, say from Dorset eastwards.

Scenario 2 - A stalling front stuck over Reading, i.e. slightly to my east would be best for my location. Places such as North Hampshire, WIltshire,West Berkshire, Oxfordshire etc would also do well out of this scenario.

Scenario 3 - If the front stalls out west of my locality, e.g. Salisbury way. Only places such as South and West WiItshire, Somerset and Dorset would be suited by this.

All the above summises, that the conditions are suitable for a snow only event in our region. The reality will be somewhat different nearer to the time and let's await more outputs and the all important MetO Fax charts. The important thing I take from all this is that the frontal precipitation remains heavy (least not forget, its hitting a 1060hpa block) and that it does NOT steamroller through and STALLS over all our heads.

As an aside, I like the idea of settled snow ahead of me in the southeast come Saturday, which should make for some perfect ingredients. It should be noted that the MetO appeared to be downplaying the precipitation amounts, which is rather strange!

As a matter of fact, I would personally choose Scenario 2, what would anybody else choose?

No doubt, there will other possibilities but I am choosing to ignore them for now.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Slow moving channel low for me please!

BO

[Katiewombat]

Hi all,

Minus 5 but no frost on car. Puzzled.com

[Dorsetbred]

So what depths will we see potentially in

Newbury

Reading

Guildford

Poole = 0mm

Portsmouth

Any thoughts?

As mentioned by divadee, I'm going for rain, I still think we are too far west and that precip will be Southampton eastwards.oh and northwards of course.

[sclarke]

Hi all,

Minus 5 but no frost on car. Puzzled.com

Check out the dew points, that's why. There's no moisture in the air, but I can promise you if you kick the ground it'll be rock solid (don't though, as it will probably hurt!)

[Dorsetbred]

Hi all,

Minus 5 but no frost on car. Puzzled.com

Wind & humidity (dewpoints) spring to mind

Edited February 2, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[Barometer Obama]

Mmmmm. Looked at the models that I have access to, and the ones posted by GTLTW and others.

Not such a question now of "will it won't it" but more where?

My emotions are torn as I'm hoping to do the Ryde 10 road race on IW on sunday morning, however......?

Still my head is saying that the coast won't get snow, I think the wind direction for us could be crucial.

While we're all posting on here saturday evening like a load of men/women possessed, it would be good to mention current wind directions along with temps and pressures. It could be a mixture of heartbreak for some and elation for others on this forum come 1am sunday

No doubt things will look different in 24 hours time...??

BO

[Becoming More Irritating]

I cant see how any region in the southern spine wont get snow, its too cold brrrrrr!!!!!!!

[Katiewombat]

Thank you guys, i must get a weather station this summer. Oh and learn to read the models

Katie

[cobbettp]

The air feels very dry, maybe bad for snow?

[john w]

The 18z shows warmer air mixing out the cooler and it being a snow to rain event from my interpretation...so further west you are liklihood is it may and I emphasis may, change to rain towards Sunday.

Still models not doing well on exact strength ot atlantic. But, it is the 18z and seems to be slightly off the marker.

Ha, and the 10:35 bbc making it even more confusing by suggesting its going to be more an event which doesnt quite make the extreme SE.

Edited February 2, 2012 by john w

[Barometer Obama]

Yes John, the confusion continues. GFS push everything east and then Deakin pushes it back west again...

[gottolovethisweather]

I cant see how any region in the southern spine wont get snow, its too cold brrrrrr!!!!!!!

Not the only bit in the equation though is it Mr Fish?

What is your professional take on things as they stand.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[john w]

Aye the NAE goes slightly west too, comments off the cusp do annoy me though. Just read one. NAE...much further west. Yeah...at one time stamp and how do you define much 50 miles...is pittance at 48 hours...people should think before they speak sometimes.

I remember an event...im sure it was the Jan 10 one...when everyone thought the most east a channel low would get was sort of southampton..it made it right across hants, the home counties and onwards in to kent and W london. I am confident this will do the same, amounts of course will vary, but if you take an anomoly as something between the 18z and the NAE, the mean is smack where we are anyway...id be surprised (unless pending a major blow) if any of what id consider central south england didnt see snow.

[Nick L]

After coming back from the pub quiz completely sober* I can tell you it's bloody freezing out there.

*Facts in this post may be slightly wrong

[Purplepixii]

After coming back from the pub quiz completely sober* I can tell you it's bloody freezing out there.

*Facts in this post may be slightly wrong

For a minute there I thought you'd left your beer overcoat at the bar Nick!

Last weather check for me as it's past my bedtime temp -3.1c (windchill -5.2c), humidity 66%, dewpoint -8.5

[cobbettp]

wow -3.5c here now I am all wrapped up with blankets lol

[Nick L]

For a minute there I thought you'd left your beer overcoat at the bar Nick!

Last weather check for me as it's past my bedtime temp -3.1c (windchill -5.2c), humidity 66%, dewpoint -8.5

I had to make a hasty exit as some drunken idiot (not me...) started singing Oasis horrendously badly at karaoke.

Annyyyyway, back the weather!

The 18z is a car crash for practically the entire country bar the far east, showing a complete snow-to-rain event. However, this is very much subject to change and time and again we have seen events like this end up much further west than expected. Millions of £s worth of computer power can't cope with events like this, it will come down to being glued to both the radar and your nearest lamp post!

[Dean E]

GFS 18z is one for the bin guys, its gone off on one of its mad phases!

Temp: -4.2c (Wind chill -7.2c), Humidity 54!%, dewpoint -11.5c...

SM

[Nick L]

GFS 18z is one for the bin guys, its gone off on one of its mad phases!

Temp: -4.2c (Wind chill -7.2c), Humidity 54!%, dewpoint -11.5c...

SM

Certainly seems crazily progressive in piling the Atlantic through. I'll reserve judgment until the morning runs (sounds slightly dodgy that) make an appearance.

[katemart]

-3.3C (Wind Chill -4.5C). DP -11.8C (and falling again!), Humidity 52% and rising.