South Central England Regional Discussion Thread

[Polar Bear]

I'm once again lurking between the chat room and this thread tonight and I'm been posted this link from LL, please do take a look.

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/ding-ding-mild-air-cold-air/482

To reiterate Liam's most important point to remember is this.

The difficulty with weather computer models is that they are often too eager to push cold air out of the way. Cold air is dense and digs in at the surface, making it reluctant to move very quickly.

Wherein their forecasting problem lies. Having said this many times before as have others, where the front STALLS (currently a 60% plus chance IMO) and IF it does (currently a 40% chance of clearing the UK), there is a chance for massive disruption.

Still game on and I'm personally looking forward to a long drawnout February.

Chilly Wishes

gottolovethisweather

Thanks GTLTW

that is interesting observation there. and actually significant because of what you say the effect would be is..

Whilst I remember in this cold spell can I ask all to remember the older folk in this weather and maybe keep an eye on them i.e you have neighours. They are most vulnerable. Age Concern has advise for them too things like. Heat at least one room i.e the bedroom, and eat one hot meal at least one a day. Try not to rely on gas fires for too long. Also there are grants from governments to help on bills. Wrap up. Reduce going outside. etc etc

[slb97]

Hello everyone hope you're all well! Im having a bit of a pants week so hoping for at least a sleet shower over the weekend to cheer me up!

[Polar Bear]

Hello everyone hope you're all well! Im having a bit of a pants week so hoping for at least a sleet shower over the weekend to cheer me up!

Hello SLB97 sorry to that you having a rubbish week. Sending you happy snowy thoughts and hope it improves by the week is out. I think your wish may come true according what is out there or the potential. x

[divadee]

Im wondering how many twists and turns are left in this weeks weather! We have gone from the beast and snow-maggedon to cold bit will be mild by the weekend. To mild by sat and that's it for winter. To cold staying and possible snow.

I'm exhausted!! I still pray to the snow gods every night. So keeping the hope we get at least a light sprinkling in christchurch.

[Polar Bear]

ana props or what ever they are called or some little light flurries?

[Purplepixii]

Whilst I remember in this cold spell can I ask all to remember the older folk in this weather and maybe keep an eye on them i.e you have neighours. They are most vulnerable. Age Concern has advise for them too things like. Heat at least one room i.e the bedroom, and eat one hot meal at least one a day. Try not to rely on gas fires for too long. Also there are grants from governments to help on bills. Wrap up. Reduce going outside. etc etc

Good point PB and probably worth posting elsewhere on other bits of the forums maybe? I have elderly neighbours near me and when we had the snow last year hubby & I gritted their paths and I did some shopping for them because I dared to go out. This year I have a 4x4 plus lots of grit so will be keeping an eye on them and offering help too

[Nick L]

ana props or what ever they are called or some little light flurries?

Anaprop I'm afraid!

[Beasterly]

The last time I saw it showing Heavy Snow was in 2010

http://screensnapr.com/v/ZMHlAO.png

Edited February 1, 2012 by feb2012freeze

[Nick L]

I'll be getting a train up to the Midlunds on Saturday morning and getting a lift in the car back in the evening...I'm hoping it's an interesting journey!

[Polar Bear]

Ah purplepixiee that is good of you. As for posting elsewhere yes I could but can't think where best. I'll investigate.

NickL you have fun now but watch em roads. Take lots of tasty food n drink with you.

But to all before I go to bed have a look at the London n south easy thread ... Although don't stay there you are needed here..., and see what is lurking out in the north sea. ( source gtltw). Nite nite sleep warm and tight now. Pb. X

[Nick L]

Ah purplepixiee that is good of you. As for posting elsewhere yes I could but can't think where best. I'll investigate.

NickL you have fun now but watch em roads. Take lots of tasty food n drink with you.

But to all before I go to bed have a look at the London n south easy thread ... Although don't stay there you are needed here..., and see what is lurking out in the north sea. ( source gtltw). Nite nite sleep warm and tight now. Pb. X

I'll be bringing a food parcel from home so I can always dib into that

Goodnight PB

[slb97]

Night pb x thanks for your snowy thoughts x x

[divadee]

Im off to pray to the snow gods and hopefully get some sleep! I'm sure we will miss out here as always! I remember a satellite picture from January 2010 and the whole country was white...... Except a tiny green spot which yep you guessed it was Bournemouth lol.

[Bobafet]

Some interesting developments, also have a look at the precip charts in the chart section. Looking promising, lets cross everything night,night peeps!!

[Andrew snow hope]

Bbc saying heavy snow and holding cold into next week! Yippee

[cobbettp]

Cold and frosty here now -2c brrrrrrrrrrrrr

[divadee]

People on mod thread saying about feb 1996 and maybe a repeat. I lived up in Bromley then and dont remember anything significant! What did I miss lol

Edited February 1, 2012 by divadee

[sclarke]

People on mod thread saying about feb 1996 and maybe a repeat. I lived up in Bromley then an font remember anything significant! What did I miss lol

I think that's the point!

If I'm thinking of the right event, everything was setup like this time, but the front went too far west so there was no PPN.

[Katiewombat]

Can you tell me is high wycombe, bucks considered south central or south east. After 3 winters lurking, still not figured where I beling.

Many thanks

Katie

[gottolovethisweather]

Can you tell me is high wycombe, bucks considered south central or south east. After 3 winters lurking, still not figured where I beling.

Many thanks

Katie

Don't worry stay here we need you.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[PompeyFC]

what do the latest ecm and gfs outputds mean for the south coast regarding sunday and snow pro's in this thread ?

[sclarke]

what do the latest ecm and gfs outputds mean for the south coast regarding sunday and snow pro's in this thread ?

If it stays at it is, we're in the sweet spot for sure. Central Southern Britain is where it will be based on the output....but the front may still move slightly further west.

[divadee]

I think that's the point!

If I'm thinking of the right event, everything was setup like this time, but the front went too far west so there was no PPN.

With my luck Bromley got nothing and Bournemouth got it all! Now I live in Bournemouth, Bromley gets it all!! I moved down here in 1999 and Bromley have had snow every year bar one since I moved. When I lived in bromley we had snow twice in 12 years!

[divadee]

If it stays at it is, we're in the sweet spot for sure. Central Southern Britain is where it will be based on the output....but the front may still move slightly further west.

How about a bit further west in Bournemouth? Will it get this far?

[sclarke]

How about a bit further west in Bournemouth? Will it get this far?

All subject to alot of change, but IMO the further west you are the better chances we will have - as I think the models are pushing the front too far east at the mo, and we'll see this sort it's self out in the next couple of days.

Saying that though, the entire situation is still extremely volitile, and I'm still confident that this will be a nowcasting event as it will chop and change before then.