South Central England Regional Discussion Thread

[Purplepixii]

Well if that was our snowfall it was pretty pathetic - it's stopped and really was a case of blink & you miss it - you're welcome to it Coast lol

[sclarke]

Well if that was our snowfall it was pretty pathetic - it's stopped and really was a case of blink & you miss it - you're welcome to it Coast lol

Better than nothing! All we've had this year is double figure temperatures, damaging winds.....

Snow for however long in is a bonus based on this winter so far! Probably snowed for about 1 hour continuous in Southampton, ground was wet so nothing laid.

[flyer]

Just stopped snowing now. Had to shovel my .01mm from the back door That's my lot for this year then.

But then again.............. :winky:

[divadee]

Just stopped snowing now. Had to shovel my .01mm from the back door That's my lot for this year then.

But then again.............. :winky:

Wow you had a positive downpour with the 0.01mm!! Lol

[flyer]

Divadee yes still recovering from that one but, on a positive note RJS just posted an interesting comment or 2 in the model thread.

Looking at the various model runs there remains alot of uncertainty with regards short term outlook. Potential flow disruption springing up all over the shop.

Hampshire seems to be the meeting point with possible South/southwest fronts, channel lows. Easterly outbreak and Northeast showers if wind is really strong and as per the GFS potential for that France setup to edge slightly further north.

End of the week looks more interesting with regards the above.

[gottolovethisweather]

Very light snow atm cold east wind to.

And that was for a non-believer too.

Ok, so you weren't buried in it but be grateful for what you had and btw, well done.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 30, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Divadee yes still recovering from that one but, on a positive note RJS just posted an interesting comment or 2 in the model thread.

Looking at the various model runs there remains alot of uncertainty with regards short term outlook. Potential flow disruption springing up all over the shop.

Hampshire seems to be the meeting point with possible South/southwest fronts, channel lows. Easterly outbreak and Northeast showers if wind is really strong and as per the GFS potential for that France setup to edge slightly further north.

End of the week looks more interesting with regards the above.

Exactly Flyer, this is where the Fax Charts will provide our best guidance and once the Easterly flow starts, let's hope it picks up in intensity as I first it does look rather weak.

Also, despite my fellow Newburian PB, indicating that it didn't snow in Newbury, well it did, actually. Again, nothing astonishing but its a start.

Look East guys.

gottolovethisweather

[PompeyFC]

I am really hoping with those cold uppers near us at the end of the week that the easterly is strong enough for the convective showers to reach us here in hampshire

[gottolovethisweather]

Exactly Flyer, this is where the Fax Charts will provide our best guidance and once the Easterly flow starts, let's hope it picks up in intensity as I first it does look rather weak.

Also, despite my fellow Newburian PB, indicating that it didn't snow in Newbury, well it did, actually. Again, nothing astonishing but its a start.

Look East guys.

gottolovethisweather

I know replying to my own comment is a bit of a no-no but I was not aware of the following and it seems that I need not panic re: the above.

See here for a response from Steve Murr in the MOD thread http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2231392 with regards to the rather flat fow.

It seems it is all coming along very nicely indeed.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 30, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi.

Here is an important link to be watching over the coming hours and days.

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

If you let the current animation run to the end, you can see how the flow is developing very nicely from the cold continent.

There is a huge amount of POTENTIAL to be had, once this airflow becomes entrenched.

Obviously, as always elevation will help in terms of lying snow and I would favour the locations further EAST/SOUTHEAST for a chance of a dumping over the coming days.

Game on.

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 30, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Nick L]

Every evening for this upcoming cold spell I'll do a forecast for our region for the following day. Although nothing exciting is showing yet, things can pop up on the high-res models from seemingly nowhere!

[gottolovethisweather]

Every evening for this upcoming cold spell I'll do a forecast for our region for the following day. Although nothing exciting is showing yet, things can pop up on the high-res models from seemingly nowhere!

Please do Nick, Thanks.

I am expecting surprises along the way too.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

And here's another good link that I've nicked from the London & SouthEast thread.

http://wolken.buienradar.nl/gzoom.aspx?ir=false&region=nl&x=230&y=176

Regards

gottolovethisweather

[Polar Bear]

Exactly Flyer, this is where the Fax Charts will provide our best guidance and once the Easterly flow starts, let's hope it picks up in intensity as I first it does look rather weak.

Also, despite my fellow Newburian PB, indicating that it didn't snow in Newbury, well it did, actually. Again, nothing astonishing but its a start.

Look East guys.

gottolovethisweather

"didn't snow in Newbury" yes you are right GTLTW it did - there was something on the car...so all I was wrong. It may have been about the size of a bag of spilt sugar. A start yes - and you know what they saw large oaks from small acorns grow .... :winky:

Every evening for this upcoming cold spell I'll do a forecast for our region for the following day. Although nothing exciting is showing yet, things can pop up on the high-res models from seemingly nowhere!

yes please yes please and thank you NickL - shall look forward to your one tonight...

[Nick L]

yes please yes please and thank you NickL - shall look forward to your one tonight...

No pressure then haha. I doubt it will be too exciting but you never know.

[Bobafet]

Fingers crossed and almost everything else that we get a decent bit of the white stuff, although after the winter we have had cant say that I am particularly optimistic. BBC weather on South today said dry and sunny for the remainder of the week - lets hope this changes. We need the models to be on side and the way they have been changing we cant really rely on them at the moment. Looks like good old fashion LampPost watching.

Positive thinking and thoughts is what we need, come on if we all do this it will happen!! :-)

Edited January 30, 2012 by bobafet

[SunnySouthCoast]

Not a flake fell here in Southsea, just some light rain. Didn't get that cold either, only an overnight low of 3C (37F) <_<

[flyer]

Exactly Flyer, this is where the Fax Charts will provide our best guidance and once the Easterly flow starts, let's hope it picks up in intensity as I first it does look rather weak.

Also, despite my fellow Newburian PB, indicating that it didn't snow in Newbury, well it did, actually. Again, nothing astonishing but its a start.

Look East guys.

gottolovethisweather

GTLTW Glad you rivalled my .01mm then . With all this to and fro stuff I think if an easterly gets going then it may well reset the playing field with new as yet unseen possibilities.

But hey who knows. Think I might just dust off the runners to help things along.

Every evening for this upcoming cold spell I'll do a forecast for our region for the following day. Although nothing exciting is showing yet, things can pop up on the high-res models from seemingly nowhere!

So Nick with a "bit more pressure" will your synopsis be with your "professional" uni hat on ?

What happened to all the Reading gubbins on your sig ?

[gottolovethisweather]

Not a flake fell here in Southsea, just some light rain. Didn't get that cold either, only an overnight low of 3C (37F) <_<

I hope for your sake that you don't like SNOW as this nasty weather clearly likes to avoid the mediterranean climate, that is Southsea. I suppose the upside is that it must get nice and hot there each summer.

If you can guys n gals, please check your dewpoints as the trend is fascinating. It also seems the clouds are trying to convect just a little here in Newbury and well, you never know what might come of it.

As of 3pm, it is 3.7c AT, -0.7c DP which is persistently heading lower as is the Air Pressure at 1024.4hpa.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

ps! I'm really looking forward to Nick L's latest forecast.

Edited January 30, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[SunnySouthCoast]

Yes, wasn't actually expecting any snow here, but it would have been a nice surprise For us to get snow here would normally mean inland areas getting a good old dumping!

As of 3pm here it was 6C

[Dorset_Weather]

Had a nice dusting here this morning when I woke up at 6am and continued to snow lightly untill 11am but only pitched on the grass and cars but better than nothing

current temp is 2.8c with a DP of 0.2c

Edited January 30, 2012 by hazard

[gottolovethisweather]

Yes, wasn't actually expecting any snow here, but it would have been a nice surprise For us to get snow here would normally mean inland areas getting a good old dumping!

As of 3pm here it was 6C

Yes SSC, it is most likely that your analysis is correct. And to that end, there is a small covering over the nearby local downs, which I may be able to visit should I miss out.

Here is Newbury's updated forecast courtesy of the MetO for example, which we can compare to your location.

Newbury

Day Weather Temp (°C) Wind (mph) Link Max Min Mon Medium-level cloud 3 -2 6 Forecast summary for Mon 30 Jan Tue Medium-level cloud 3 -3 9 Forecast summary for Tue 31 Jan Wed Sunny 2 -2 14 Forecast summary for Wed 1 Feb Thu Sunny 1 -4 9 Forecast summary for Thu 2 Feb Fri Sunny intervals 2 -1 8 Forecast summary for Fri 3 Feb

Updated: 1400 on Mon 30 Jan 2012

Get five day forecast for Newbury

So, let's see what the MetO currently predict for Portsmouth.

Portsmouth

Day Weather Temp (°C) Wind (mph) Link Max Min Mon Medium-level cloud 5 -1 10 Forecast summary for Mon 30 Jan Tue Sunny intervals 4 -2 10 Forecast summary for Tue 31 Jan Wed Sunny 3 -2 16 Forecast summary for Wed 1 Feb Thu Sunny 2 -2 11 Forecast summary for Thu 2 Feb Fri Sunny 3 0 10 Forecast summary for Fri 3 Feb

Updated: 1400 on Mon 30 Jan 2012

Get five day forecast for Portsmouth

*stupid formatting, please note the temperatures are highlighted in red*

So it does seem at least SSC that you are highly likely to at least get some FROSTS. You should also note that neither of us differ much in terms of what is currently expected. This WILL change and as I have suggested previously, keep looking due EAST.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

The GFS 12z is now rolling out

Edited January 30, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Mark Neal.]

Evening folks a lovely day with large amounts of sunshine, few fluffy clouds developed nothing showery though! Temperature peaked at 3.4c at 1:30pm. Its now -1.7c at 6:30pm, dewpoint at a chilly -5.9c.

Something worth pointing out on BBC SOUTH TODAY Twitter- it said chance of showers for Tuesday Night and into Wednesday, this after they were saying upto then, that this week would be dry for all in the region, as they say slow upgrades become big upgrades, who knows. Could be some welcome surprises before the end of the week.

Regards,Mark

[coxxy22]

Not a flake fell here in Southsea, just some light rain. Didn't get that cold either, only an overnight low of 3C (37F) <_<

it was snowing very very lightly this morning as i walked to work (4:45 am)

[Nick L]

Right, as promised, here's my forecast for tomorrow. I'll be taking most of my info from the NMM and NAE models.

Tonight will see cloud spreading from the east into the region thanks to a decaying cold front over eastern areas. This will help prevent a frost developing in most areas although we will see temperatures dipping down to around freezing in most places after initially dipping a few degrees below.

Into tomorrow morning it will be a mainly cloudy start, unlike the clear skies of this morning but it will still be cold, with the cloud preventing temperatures from getting above 2 or 3c. We might see some sunny intervals, especially later in the afternoon and along the south coast but it will stay cloudy for the most part. We're unlikely to see any wintry weather tomorrow although where the thickest cloud persists we may see the odd very light flurry.

Edited January 30, 2012 by Nick L