London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread - II

[Tim Bland]

I think people need to realise that the kind of things Roger is talking about (correct me if I am wrong) are very localised affairs and he is not suggesting that the whole of the SE would get that sort of snow fall.

If streamers do occur they would only be forecast by the Met at extremely short notice, usually within hours of them starting so don't expect to see anything from the until tomorrow night for Wed / Thu.

He is also saying 10 to 20cm tommorow! Under such high pressure without even a pink pixel on the NAE I very much doubt that!

Edited January 31, 2012 by Tim Bland

[Jo S]

Bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We are ready for you :smiliz19:

[Paul Sherman]

So what Temps and Dp's we got around the region then.

1925pm

Temp : 0.1c

Dew : -3.1c

6/8 Clouds

Dry with Icy Wind

Leigh On Sea

[sarah7meme]

Ashford 5.30pm 0.5

Lyminge 6pm 0.5

Varying up to 2.5 on drive home

[Marie]

Temp 0.4 dewpoint -1.6 part cloudy and bloody cold lol

[95 Degrees]

People go on about the snow and rightly so but i'm looking foward to a genuine frost tommorrow hopefully and coldest night so far this winter maybe tonight.

[Bolton67]

On balance things continue to look promising for locally heavy snowfalls with east Kent obviously best placed, but other regions further west and north not entirely left out even before the main event which looks to be a mesoscale low Friday night into Saturday ahead of the slow-moving breakdown frontal system. While many will be describing this snow potential as "ahead of warm front" it is more related to an upper level low circulating around in the ENE flow of exceptionally cold air, and more of an independent player that will receive a boost in later stages from the warm front.

Would suggest that tomorrow is moderately good for streamer potential and could produce a few local amounts in the 10-20 cm range but wider amounts of 2-5 cms, these not limited to the southeast but also showing up in parts of the east Midlands and east Anglia.

Thursday then becomes a bit less favourable for wind speed but has some of the coldest air beginning to circulate around and any hint of troughing, however weak, could become a focus for locally intense snow bands that will tend to hover in one place (Canterbury?) for several hours due to weaker steering currents. Localized snowfalls of 10-30 cms are possible with this. It is going to be cold enough to keep daytime highs near or sub-freezing. By the way, a reverse way of thinking about this is as follows ... the upper dynamics support temperatures in the range of -10 to -5 C, but these seem intuitively too cold, so what prevents them? Snow streamers and cloud.

Friday then looks best for snow development on a wider scale, especially later in the day towards the Friday-Saturday overnight when I think the model consensus indicates good chance of mesoscale snowfall development widely over the Dover straits region. Extremely cold air aloft will be interacting with the North Sea to augment this development, and it is the lunar "northern max" which is always a boost for snowfall or severe weather intensification. As this mesoscale feature remains quasi-stationary into Saturday, the advancing warm frontal trough with Atlantic moisture will overrun and possibly set off even heavier snowfall amounts. There is potential for 20-40 cms of snow in all of this activity and a fairly widespread production of at least 10 cms. There are also risks of freezing rain and ice fog to be considered for road maintenance and other interests.

In general, I think the public forecasts are giving the impression of a rather cold period with a few snowflakes in the air and a slight frost, but I'm seeing this as a deep freeze situation with surprisingly cold temperatures and locally heavy snow. The 12z model runs are all slight upgrades on earlier trends model for model and the GEM actually brings the 510 dam ashore and into London which would be quite a shocker both ways.

Very nice of you to mention the East Midlands, I'll have some of that.

Edited January 31, 2012 by lancs_northants

[jgbgt]

right update here on the kent sussex border,

temp 0.7

DP -4C

wind speed 3.4mph (slightly sheltered but at good elevation) directly NE

windchill figure -1.0C

broken cloud moving fairly fast

in sum up, chilly......

jon

Edited January 31, 2012 by jgbgt

[wchris_uk]

Deal Kent

temp 2.7

dew point -2.6

[Helvellyn]

I wouldn't bother trying to predict ANY snow, even now.

As we've seen in the last few years - random, apparently unexpected snowfall can occur anywhere once you have the surface & upper cold in place. Differences in location/extent of streamers/boundaries of fronts can mean massive differences in amounts of snow across quite small areas

Radar watching 2-3 hours out is your best bet no matter which direction the precipitation is coming from.

[Jo S]

Temp -1.0C

Dew -3C

Freezing cold brrrrrrrr

[msx999]

Car thermo says 2.0... Feels sub zero...

[warrenb]

0.6C

Dew point -2.3C

[Froze were the Days]

Temp: -0.2C Dew point: -2.5c, Partly clear in downtown Burnham!

[Jayces]

I guess we will know soon enough how accurate young Rogers predictions are

[95 Degrees]

1.0C here.

[donna-m]

Heres our sunny Clactons data

Temp 2.1

Dew -0.2

Humidty 83%

Wind 10.1 E

Edited January 31, 2012 by donna-m

[PLANET THANET]

here is thanets results.......1,7c / -2dp and 83% humidity

[Paul Sherman]

Cheers Guys

Pretty much standard around the region of temps around 1c nearer the coasts and 0c to -1c Inland - Dewpoints averaging around -2c to -3c

[tinybill]

Very nice of you to mention the East Midlands, I'll have some of that.

pernaps jon hammond read what roger pu here!!!

[SMU]

pernaps jon hammond read what roger pu here!!!

Whys that I didnt see his forecast

S

[Froze were the Days]

Below freezing here Paul, quite surprising! with a slight easterly breeze.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec Looking even better for us..This keeps getting better and better Fingers crossed people

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=temp

Both at the same time Good 6-10 hours of snowfall for some of us if this was to come off.....

[A.J]

Lol Really ?

Feb 2009 = 52cm of LEVEL Snow (Not Drifted Snow)

Dec 2009 = 34cm of LEVEL Snow (Not Drifted Snow)

Dec 2010 = 37cm of LEVEL Snow (Leigh on Sea) with 2 foot drifts measured at Belfairs Woods.

I think we are quite lucky where we are placed in the South East personally

So then Mr Sherminator, you get heavy snow in winter, good plume thunderstorms in summer, american supercells & tornadoes in the spring......whilst in the west midlands I get drizzle, 'slizzle', trenchfoot from the permanent soggy ground and the makings of a horrible brummy accent......Fancy a life swap?? :lol:

[alan snow]

0.5 here in belvedere feels like -5 in the breeze partly cloudy im not sure if there are small flakes in the air or ash from my fag lol