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South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Spring Weather Discussion

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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

Save that ecm precip chart as I bet its further west come the day, which would benefit my location but I also reckon it'll struggle to get that far east come the day due to that block. Remember the weather front this weekend just gone was originally pegged to reach much further east across the country, as it was the eastern extent of the precipitation only just reached the Bristol area!

It does come through us as it builds lol

post-2826-0-78646400-1328123617_thumb.jp

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Brilliant ECM run throughout, never expected that much of an upgrade at all!

-4 850's never leave the South West at all

Cold for the next ten days

Threat of snowfall for Eastern Counties of our region this weekend

Many frosts

So much to play for still it seems, just hope its not an outlier!

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

more close up of the sw from the excellent maps from chris.

not snow for everyone, but 5-10cms widely for people in the right area and if ecm is right it won't melt the next day as the cold comes back in again !

post-6326-0-14322200-1328124287_thumb.pn

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

Brilliant ECM run throughout, never expected that much of an upgrade at all!

Ah but if you had taken a look at the ecm ensembles you would have seen that a number of them have been showing this scenario for the last few days :-)

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted (edited)

more close up of the sw from the excellent maps from chris.

not snow for everyone, but 5-10cms widely for people in the right area and if ecm is right it won't melt the next day as the cold comes back in again !

Kept away from looking at the model runs this afternoon and eve until now and find we're in upgrade country - kinda wind the clock back 2 days model-wise - seems a similar line of snow to what the models showed for the coming weekend a couple of days ago.

I'm pretty sure this will change again tom for the weekend! :rolleyes:

Edited by Bristle boy
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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted (edited)

more close up of the sw from the excellent maps from chris.

not snow for everyone, but 5-10cms widely for people in the right area and if ecm is right it won't melt the next day as the cold comes back in again !

Yep, from North Somerset/Mendips Northwards and Eastwards it looke good!

Unfortunately rain further South and West

Ah but if you had taken a look at the ecm ensembles you would have seen that a number of them have been showing this scenario for the last few days :-)

Just waiting for it too be an outlier on tonights ensembles now! Lol! :rofl:GFS definetly out on its own though!

Edited by Active Weather Dude
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David-kig Newbie

David-kig

Posted
  • Location: Castle Cary somerset
  • Location: Castle Cary somerset
Posted

more close up of the sw from the excellent maps from chris.

not snow for everyone, but 5-10cms widely for people in the right area and if ecm is right it won't melt the next day as the cold comes back in again !

how much truth is in there i think under -4 with surface cold that chart is abit bullish
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alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted

Yep, from North Somerset/Mendips Northwards and Eastwards it looke good!

Unfortunately rain further South and West

Just waiting for it too be an outlier on tonights ensembles now! Lol! :rofl:GFS definetly out on its own though!

is the purple rain and blue snow? or both snow. and can it shift further south im on the very edge

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Charts don't really do bullish the conditions are progged to either be right for snow or not

Forgot to add the caveat that this is still 75hrs out and subject to massive change

(null)

All colours are snow the blue is heavier snow purple light

(null)

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David-kig Newbie

David-kig

Posted
  • Location: Castle Cary somerset
  • Location: Castle Cary somerset
Posted

means for most on here further west the better esp for me as im right on the edge ;) i think the chart is following the -5 upper level rule? anyway the trend is west

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Hi david models have an ouput variable of precip type now so they factor in loads of stuff such as the thickness values from cloud base to ground theta values dps temps etc

Cheers

(null)

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted (edited)

Just hang on a second!

I came on and read the model thread on monday to find that everythings awesome!!

Then i cam eon yesterday and found that everythings gone down the tube and that is that. No arguing , Thats it, over. Spring is here?

Now you telling me that we have no model agreement again and possible upgrades?

:80:

Oh and is this no longer the case?

gfs-2012020112-2-72.png?12?12

Edited by Lynxus
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Jonesywilliteversnow Newbie

Jonesywilliteversnow

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)

Just hang on a second!

I came on and read the model thread on monday to find that everythings awesome!!

Then i cam eon yesterday and found that everythings gone down the tube and that is that. No arguing , Thats it, over. Spring is here?

Now you telling me that we have no model agreement again and possible upgrades?

:80:

Oh and is this no longer the case?

http://modeles.meteo...-2-72.png?12?12

Pretty much

Who knows what tomorrow will bring!?!?!? On a side note tomorrow is when the High Resolution NAE comes into play and with this we will finally be able to set some things into stone..... maybe ;)

P.S I have applied for a job at the Met Office fingers crossed :)

Edited by Jonesywilliteversnow
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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

Oh and is this no longer the case?

gfs-2012020112-2-72.png?12?12

That chart is old news, as it stands now your location is on for alot of snow according to the ecm & ukmo, gfs is rubbish and way off the mark, the euro models handle blocking situations much better than the usa model.

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted (edited)

That chart is old news, as it stands now your location is on for alot of snow according to the ecm & ukmo, gfs is rubbish and way off the mark, the euro models handle blocking situations much better than the usa model.

I agree about the models.

I keep telling people that the GFS for one ALWAYS! overdoes the atlantic lows. Its programmed with them in mind! It always bows down closer to the time when its own progged progression doesnt happen.

Gah.. The next few days are gonn abe interesting,. I do however bet that we just end up with rain/sleet and at most 1inch ( MAX ) .. I do hope im wrong.

Edited by Lynxus
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Mark Parsons Aficionado

Mark Parsons

Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
Posted

Brilliant ECM run throughout, never expected that much of an upgrade at all!

-4 850's never leave the South West at all

Cold for the next ten days

Threat of snowfall for Eastern Counties of our region this weekend

Many frosts

So much to play for still it seems, just hope its not an outlier!

-4 uppers translate to +6 at the surface so not that cold but not that mild either.
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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted (edited)

Yep, from North Somerset/Mendips Northwards and Eastwards it looke good!

Unfortunately rain further South and West

Just waiting for it too be an outlier on tonights ensembles now! Lol! :rofl:GFS definetly out on its own though!

The ECM actually is showing Snow for all inc far SW , I think the issue with it is , is that the angle the PPN comes in it might miss the far SW ... Thanks for the Closeup Iceberg , looking good for the East of the SW region .

Edited by snowmadchrisuk
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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted (edited)

-4 uppers translate to +6 at the surface so not that cold but not that mild either.

Not entirely sure I agree with that.

Ive seen -4's with plenty of snow and 0c at the ground..

I dont think there is a "direct" relationship between 850's and ground level temps...

Just been looking at the ECM and its showing a great block from the east over the weekend with 850's barely moving. So thats promising. ( Currently )

NOGAPS also shows the PPN not moving too far east.. So yet another good sign.

Edited by Lynxus
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khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted

Not entirely sure I agree with that.

Ive seen -4's with plenty of snow and 0c at the ground..

I dont think there is a "direct" relationship between 850's and ground level temps...

Just been looking at the ECM and its showing a great block from the east over the weekend with 850's barely moving. So thats promising. ( Currently )

NOGAPS also shows the PPN not moving too far east.. So yet another good sign.

So is there a chance it could stall? What happens if the block stops it, would it eventually get shoved back towards the Atlantic?

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

So is there a chance it could stall? What happens if the block stops it, would it eventually get shoved back towards the Atlantic?

I think theres a chance that it may not make it all the way east, So yeah possibly.

HOWEVER. It does seem like the milder air may undercut the cooler air and mix out quickly.. So while it may stall and the east stay colder.. The west has a good chance of becoming milder with rain..

Friday will be a great day for models. ( I hope )

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caz100 Rookie

caz100

Posted
  • Location: camborne CORNWALL........... :)
  • Weather Preferences: snow snow snow ..
  • Location: camborne CORNWALL........... :)
Posted

Im near truro area, do you think we will be getting just rain ??

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Im near truro area, do you think we will be getting just rain ??

I couldnt possibly say.

Some models show snow. some show wind and rain.

Friday will be the day! Be interesting to see what teh metoffice do over the next 48 hrs.

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caz100 Rookie

caz100

Posted
  • Location: camborne CORNWALL........... :)
  • Weather Preferences: snow snow snow ..
  • Location: camborne CORNWALL........... :)
Posted

thanks for relying fingers crossed would love to see a little sprinkle of snowflakes falling down from the sky :)

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

At least if nothing else, its brought this thread back to life and gave us some hope to talk about! Lol!

ECM wasnt an outlier either, a definite shift towards a colder outlookt in those!

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