South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[khodds]

One last question before I go to bed, (I haven't been paying proper attention to the charts) when is it actually due to come in - Saturday or Sunday? I know times are subject to change...

[Nights King]

One last question before I go to bed, (I haven't been paying proper attention to the charts) when is it actually due to come in - Saturday or Sunday? I know times are subject to change...

saturday afternoon i think roughly.

[khodds]

saturday afternoon i think roughly.

Thank you

Has anyone else noticed that the weather forecasters have gone incredibly quiet on twitter since the 18z rolled out? Or is it just me?

[jethro]

-2c with a breeze does alot more damage that a -8 without one! penetrates ground far more! This is kind of weather that does damage to tougher plants especially evergreen ones.

More damage the better I say as I can replace them all in the spring....at a price.

Whitehalls in Whitchurch perchance? Trade accounts????? Able to order in sizable Buxus balls?

[Snowfan50]

So how far east will the location have to be to see snow, Im guessing Devon at near sea level will see rain right?

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

-2c with a breeze does alot more damage that a -8 without one! penetrates ground far more! This is kind of weather that does damage to tougher plants especially evergreen ones.

More damage the better I say as I can replace them all in the spring....at a price.

How does a cold breeze damage plants? I thought wind chill was something that only affected animals as it takes away the heat radiating from our bodies? I'm not doubting you, just asking a genuine question. Does a breeze with sub zero temps equate to more hoar frost than if the air was still?

[David-kig]

ukmo has us in the (warm sector) reallty could do with a push west like the ecm last night. iffy. gfs is not far off!! so the chances of snow throughout is in doubt

Edited February 2, 2012 by David-kig

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

So with only a few days to go, is there any chance at all that this could come further west or are we running out of time?

[David-kig]

So with only a few days to go, is there any chance at all that this could come further west or are we running out of time?

if the ECM sticks to its gun then yes. there will be snow over east somerset eastwards, the worse case it will turn back to rain. the issue is i think last time it reached oxford on sunday but due to the high being eroded alittle bit it sounds correct the ukmo. Mendips higher ground of course a slight temp difference they might be fine

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Thanks DK, not sounding too good for Dartmoor then, rain again!!!

[David-kig]

Thanks DK, not sounding too good for Dartmoor then, rain again!!!

we will see but im sure it will be ok with faith Edited February 2, 2012 by David-kig

[Iceberg]

Quick update on saturday nights model setups.

Meto : pushes through a bigger system and pretty much removes chances of snow for nearly all in the sw, except possibly the forst of dean.

GFS : has snow from southampton to warminster to bath to bristol and eastwards, further west is rain.

GEM : keeps everybody from east somerset eastwards with snow.

BOM : like the Meto but even worse as it takes the front out in europe very quickly, this looks like the models yesterday morning.

ECM : similar to gfs maybe ever so slightly eastwards, but around 30miles further east than yesterdays 12z ecm.

overall still an incredible amount of uncertainty, however it has to be said that no model is predicting snow or those in the west of region, sorry.

for those in wiltshire, and the east of the region is probably looks 50/50 to be honest, gfs ensembles indicate that the 00z was bang on the ens mean.

it also doesn't look like much of a snow to rain set up, you will likely either get snow and it will stay or not, with only a small band of marginal.

regardless of what falls depths are looking around the 10cm 10mm mark.

we still need to nae's etc for a really detailed look.

[dancing daisy]

Points west weatherlady just said snow Saturday, but she said it really quickly, you could see it in her eyes that she was thinking that the quicker she said it the less likely people would notice. The graphic also showed snow in a blink and you would miss it stylee.

I guess we just need to talk about it endlessly, go through the highs and lows of the charts and wait for Saturday then.

Oooh just realised that it is Groundhog/Candlemas day and it's sunny. 6 more weeks of winter to go then.

Edited February 2, 2012 by dancing daisy

[Evening thunder]

If anyone in the surrounding area want's to see some lying snow, it might not be a bad idea to take a trip up to the Blackdown Hills. I would recommend Staple Hill where I went: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72424-blackdown-hills-snow/page__pid__2237647#entry2237647

The only thing that might have changed it a bit is the sun melting it off branches slightly, or the wind blowing bits off. Maxima should have been at or below 0C since I went up there and It should stay there until at least Saturday anyway. Of course Exmoor is probably just as good too.

Also I notice Okehampton had the lowest max in the UK yesterday at a MetO site, at -1.5C.

[Lynxus]

Not sure I can cope today with this.. The model thread is just constant flip flop whines.. " Its the end of winter, we will all be flooded ", " Plenty of snow on the way! " etc etc

Good luck everyone.

Im still in firm belief that the whole lot is going to be further west than expected and will probably be less intense.. But thats just me.

[AWD]

Not sure I can cope today with this.. The model thread is just constant flip flop whines.. " Its the end of winter, we will all be flooded ", " Plenty of snow on the way! " etc etc

Good luck everyone.

Im still in firm belief that the whole lot is going to be further west than

expected and will probably be less intense.. But thats just me.

That will be the Irish and the Welsh doing the moaning and the Easterners and South Easterners doing the ramping! You get to know where people are from without looking at their location in this type of set up! Lol!

For us, no real change! We really could do with a 50/100 mile shift west to bring more of our region in with a chance and to have a chance of it staying as snow and not turning back to rain!

At the moment the front stalls just a little to far east for us, and so we are currently modelled a snow to rain event! However, I will wait until the 12z and see if they can shift west like last night again!

[Lynxus]

Interesting post:

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2237857

Confirms my thinking from the last few days.

( Is trying his best to stay unbiased without ramping or depressing )

Edited February 2, 2012 by Lynxus

[Chris K]

what is the bristol area likely to have if the positioning of the front stays roughly as it is shown on this mornings models? will it be a snow to rain job? eastern england looks like the place to be to see the most snow by looks of things. just hoping the 12z/ 18z pushes it that bit more west...

Edited February 2, 2012 by Bugganuts

[AWD]

what is the bristol area likely to have if the positioning of the front stays as it is shown on this mornings models? will it be a snow to rain job? eastern england looks like the place to be to see the most snow by looks of things. just hoping the 18z pushes it that bit more west...

At the moment a brief snow to rain event is the most likely option! However, a small shift westwards and that could change! Come back at 7pm tonight for the latest!

Your right in terms of Eastern England getting a pasting though!

[SilverWolf]

Could the east of our region be any more on the potential border of rain/snow on sat according the models! A bit further west and half of my county (glos) will be wet and the other white. Or all wet, or all white... I'm confused by people posting that it'll be nailed by the models tomorrow? Thought snow bit more tricky than that, maybe few hours before? The best snow events I remember have come very last minute, sometimes with just rain predicted. SW

[Snowkissed]

Yes SW I was quite relieved to see that the GFS is showing rain for us at the moment. Can't remember how many times snow has been forcasted for our area this far in advanced, only to be downgraded to rain at the final moment. This might be a great set up for us!

[AWD]

Same on the GFS 06z for our region! Brief snow to rain event!

[Nights King]

Same on the GFS 06z for our region! Brief snow to rain event!

We need it to trend further west really although its probably not going to really be decided til we get through to fridays 12z.

Another 50/100 miles west please!!!!

[weathe20]

06z more progressive, but if you listen to Mr Murr its not worth looking at!! Unless its good! lol

We need it to trend further west really although its probably not going to really be decided til we get through to fridays 12z.

Another 50/100 miles west please!!!!

With the cold air in place maybe, just maybe it will stall much futher west like last weekend. The front last weekend was so so slow to move east, and this time the cold is much stronger so we will see!

[khodds]

Snow kissed is right, we don't want it to say snow all the way really, as that'll probably end up in disappointment for us, if it shows rain now then all the better... Fingers crossed!