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South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

It is true that since I have been living in the SW I notice it is one of the Wettest places in the UK , Even in my part of the SW the Mist and drizzle you get off the Bristol Channel is never ending . In Cornwall you even get the weather fronts that are not even destined for the Uk but just clip you ... South East will probably be my next move in a few years . :)

Did you know the south west can be the best place to be in these cold vs mild battles, at least it used to be in the 80s lol, there were numerous blizzards in this part of the world caused by these battle ground scenarios back then, it'll happen again i'm sure, just hope i'm still young enough to enjoy the cold and snow :-P

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

Are you in the warning? :)

For Saturday yep, mind you the current bbc forecasts don't match those warnings with all our region shown as having rain all the way so it will be interesting if later forecasts change and show snow for us on sat.

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

still forecasted to turn back to rain/drizzle for my area with temps up to 6-7c by sunday.....really? :(

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alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted

For Saturday yep, mind you the current bbc forecasts don't match those warnings with all our region shown as having rain all the way so it will be interesting if later forecasts change and show snow for us on sat.

see what Ian has to say later :)

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lfcdude Accomplished

lfcdude

Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
Posted (edited)

whoes this elizibeth austin .. We can all expect 5cm.. Nice lass getting the hopes up on points west there lol.

Ian tweets our intresting transitional for bristol.. Snow for wilts :-D

Edited by lfcdude
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Dartmoor_Matt Apprentice

Dartmoor_Matt

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
Posted

Brrr. Freezing again today, two ice days now. Snow a bit further up which has lasted since Sunday/Monday.

Anyone have a clue whats happening this weekend?

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quantock girl Newbie

quantock girl

Posted
  • Location: West Somerset
  • Location: West Somerset
Posted

still forecasted to turn back to rain/drizzle for my area with temps up to 6-7c by sunday.....really? :(

At least you haven't been given rain from the word go. LIKE ME :80:

I can just imagine it this weekend - pictures everywhere of snow laden countryside while we fix wheels to our sledges and have fun in the mud. Oh well, I hope the thief of our salt bags (last night) starts to cry when he/she sees the weather.

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jethro Accomplished

jethro

Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
Posted

I know nowt about forecasting or model reading but I find it difficult to believe that this cold is going to shunted out of the way so easily. Straw clutching perhaps but I reckon there'll be a few nice surprises around this weekend.

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

I know nowt about forecasting or model reading but I find it difficult to believe that this cold is going to shunted out of the way so easily. Straw clutching perhaps but I reckon there'll be a few nice surprises around this weekend.

Someone was mentioning a couple of days ago in the MOD thread that it's more easily shunted eastwards at our end because we are on its south-western edge of the high pressure. I also didn't see how it can just be pushed away so easily, but by the looks of things the cold is going to cling on for the SE corner of England anyway, longer than it will for us in the west. So not exactly pushed away, just pushed back enough for most of us to see 'less cold' temps. I suppose there could still be slight shifts west for the front but can't see it being anything substantial now the time is getting closer.

However as others have said, I guess we won't know until the day!

It will be interesting to see how the month progresses pattern-wise.

Edited by Bugganuts
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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted

The temperature deicided to sneak above freezing for an hour with the maximum being 0.3c, however it's now back below freezing

at -0.1c and will probably keep dropping (how low who knows!) for the next 16 hours until the sun rises tomorrow!

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Bobd29 Enthusiast

Bobd29

Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
Posted

A reasonable chance Wilts, Glos, East Somerset and high north Dorset could see substantial snow from this if as some of the charts show the front stalls across the middle of the country and slides more south than s/e. Surface temps will be very cold and winds not too high to mix, so it may well not just be the east that catches this;. Also think the front could edge west as it reaches its eastern extent and slips south..thoughts anyone?

Better than Jan anyway!

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

12z output soon! Let's see if we can get a late push westwards from it here! There isn't much evidence our region will be affected to much by snow this weekend now! Gloucs & Wiltshire may get a bit, otherwise it's going to be a quick snow to rain event for most of us! If we do get something a little more it's a bonus!

The Met Office often issue their first warning for a major weather event for a wider area than actually needed to cover their backs! At the moment, there still is a small amount of uncertainty, so they issue a warning for a wider area, but as this uncertainty clears up and the situation becomes clearer, the warning will reduce in size to only show the affected areas!

If the 12z output remains the same as the 0z output and doesn't shift it west I would expect this warning to clear our area, with the exception maybe of Wiltshire!

As for events after this weekend! Well, IF the front moves through as currently modelled, then temps will rise on Sunday as milder Atlantic air moves in! With the exception of Cornwall and Devon perhaps, temps are however only predicted to rise to around average at best, so I would call it less cold rather than mild, but that's just a personal opinion I guess! Next week temps are forecast to start at around average values, perhaps a bit above in the far South West, before slowing falling back again as the Atlantic air gets mixed out with cooler continental air! It looks likely to be a dry, uneventful, perhaps frosty week though!

Long term I think our chance will come this month, there is little evidence of an active Atlantic pattern, but there are tentitive signs of northern blocking, this time to our north west which can be far better for us in terms of snowfall! Long way to go yet but Feb looks likely for our best chance of snow so far!

This weekend then, don't expect anything, but keep a open mind as stranger things have happened!

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted (edited)

First of the blocks, the GME has it further west at T72!

Lol! ( Straw clutching at it's best )!

12z NAE isn't good for us at T48, has it has rain from the start for all the South West, bar Eastern most counties to which it hasn't reached yet!

GFS 12z provides us with a snow to rain event, much like it's previous runs!

Edited by Active Weather Dude
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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

reading model thread on my mob..who ever said that gme model was unrelible... All goin west

GME is brilliant for us, GFS not so good, although saying that maybe a slight improvement from it's previous run! UKMO has it further west, but nit far enough to make much difference for most of our region!

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NickSomerset Newbie

NickSomerset

Posted
  • Location: Ilminster Somerset
  • Location: Ilminster Somerset
Posted (edited)

hi

Is the cold front going to give up so easily????? Seems as though warm front gets and easy ride sweeping right across the country with no effort! Totall different to last atlantic hot v cold air battle.. whats different this time?

EDIT: Met Office keeping us waiting for the Server Weather Warning Update... who's broken it?

Edited by NickSomerset
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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

gfs is a slight improvement maybe 20 miles west.

meto is a massive movement west of 50-70 miles when you compare the thickness charts at midnight on saturday.

as nick mentioned on the model thread the triple point has moved sw this puts the higher temps further sw as well and the cold front before and after closer together.

the east of our region might do very very well with this, and it might not me too late for a further movement west to get somerset into the equation to !

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alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted

gfs is a slight improvement maybe 20 miles west.

meto is a massive movement west of 50-70 miles when you compare the thickness charts at midnight on saturday.

as nick mentioned on the model thread the triple point has moved sw this puts the higher temps further sw as well and the cold front before and after closer together.

the east of our region might do very very well with this, and it might not me too late for a further movement west to get somerset into the equation to !

Hope your right it would be nice for Somerset to get some :)

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alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted

gfs has the region to go through the marginality all over again tues/wed and then wed/thur next week. blimey i hope something comes off from the various chances.

do we still have a chance at weekend or is minimised to south eastern areas?

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

gfs is a slight improvement maybe 20 miles west.

meto is a massive movement west of 50-70 miles when you compare the thickness charts at midnight on saturday.

as nick mentioned on the model thread the triple point has moved sw this puts the higher temps further sw as well and the cold front before and after closer together.

the east of our region might do very very well with this, and it might not me too late for a further movement west to get somerset into the equation to !

Do you think higher areas of devon and somerset are in with a chance? Im at work so cannot really get to have a look at models at moment. All to stressful! People at work keep asking and I keep saying "naa mainly rain" and playing it down. :search:

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Wish the meto's website would work again :(

Cant read any warnings.. Is it because they are about to launch the warning of a lifetime?

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alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted

Wish the meto's website would work again :(

Cant read any warnings.. Is it because they are about to launch the warning of a lifetime?

A red warning with 10ft snow drifts! i wsh :D

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