South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[Iceberg]

Not at all surprised by the Ian twitter

Wilts gloss and parts of Dorset look to be in the 5-10cm region after tonights output

(null)

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

How does a cold breeze damage plants? I thought wind chill was something that only affected animals as it takes away the heat radiating from our bodies? I'm not doubting you, just asking a genuine question. Does a breeze with sub zero temps equate to more hoar frost than if the air was still?

[AWD]

Yep, another 25 mile shift westwards and we could include Bath and Bristol in that!

ECM not as good for us, bit better than GFS but that's about it! Another days output tomorrow to go still!

Edited February 2, 2012 by Active Weather Dude

[chapmanslade]

Latest runs suggesting a small closed circulation on Saturday night which has the effect of dragging colder uppers back around from the north and maintaining the snow. I think there would be a realistic chance of an all snow event in Wilts with that, especially with any elevation. Close call, but frontal snow always is in this country.

[AWD]

Latest runs suggesting a small closed circulation on Saturday night which has the effect of dragging colder uppers back around from the north and maintaining the snow. I think there would be a realistic chance of an all snow event in Wilts with that, especially with any elevation. Close call, but frontal snow always is in this country.

Wiltshire has a good chance based on tonights output mate

[Nights King]

How does a cold breeze damage plants? I thought wind chill was something that only affected animals as it takes away the heat radiating from our bodies? I'm not doubting you, just asking a genuine question. Does a breeze with sub zero temps equate to more hoar frost than if the air was still?

Let me explain... Say you have an evergreen plant (most susceptible even if very hardy like a lorrel hedge) If you have a sub zero wind it basicly freezes to the core of the plant deeper and the roots depending on lengh of freeze and then it also drys out the foiliage of the plant now what this does is it means the plant is losing moisture through the day in its leaves and growth points but cannot replenish water to vital areas because it is still frozen causing alot more cell damage. If you just get a still radiation frost then the plant freezes but does not lose the fluids so fast allowing it to recover when the thaw comes. Another damaging thing for plants is when you get subzero days with core of plant frozen and sun thaws out the edges causing same thing.

Its a rushed response but hope it makes sense.

Back on the subject of snow it would be nice if even if we get transient snow event if the snow could lay around long enough for colder air to move back in and preserve id be happy. Id hate to go to bed with 3 inches of snow to wake up with puddles!

Edited February 2, 2012 by mullender83

[Bristawl Si]

A report on what Ian says on Points West in 10 mins would be good please - other half is watching ITV!!

[Iceberg]

ecm is in and.........moves everything westwards again !!!!!

the snow line looks to be dorchester, bridgewater and weston-super, with bristol, bath eastwards getting a real dump of snow.

[lfcdude]

dont worry ladies and gents... If wilts get a all snow event.. Im sure to take some pics and upload

[AWD]

ecm is in and.........moves everything westwards again !!!!!

the snow line looks to be dorchester, bridgewater and weston-super, with bristol, bath eastwards getting a real dump of snow.

Do you know where I can get ECM PPN charts from as there isn't any on metociel and it would appear I need to look at them?

[Iceberg]

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

you need to do some playing with the variables though...

[AWD]

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

you need to do some playing with the variables though...

Cheers

[snowmadchrisuk]

Some positive developments today regarding our region . Lots can still change but this is how things stand as of the 12Z Today .

Of Note Bristol has come into the equation in most models as possibly being in the Snow Zone .

We will start off with the worst Model in terms of what it is showing for our region the GFS .

As you can see this Model see's the area where Rain will turn to Snow around Bristol .This is slightly further West than it was showing yesterday ..

Next we have the ECM , This is still projecting Snow for our region and extending West perhaps towards Taunton , see the Snowfall projection below .

We then have the UKMO and IMO this is probably one of the biggest upgrades for our region as you can see in the charts below precipitation and 850's would indicate Snow for a good part of our region .

The 850's stay below 0 and as I also posted on the Model thread earlier look what is coming back behind it .

To avoid making this post to long , I won't post anymore charts but jsut too add the GME and the GEM Model keep us in the Cold uppers throughout . So overall I think you can make your own Judgement on your own areas but for the East of our area things are looking a little more positive tonight and would advise anybody East of Taunton to keep an eye on future updates and the Met Office.

Cheers

Chris

[Bristawl Si]

ecm is in and.........moves everything westwards again !!!!!

the snow line looks to be dorchester, bridgewater and weston-super, with bristol, bath eastwards getting a real dump of snow.

[AWD]

Can anyone elaborate at what the T72 FAX chart shows for our region?

To me it's an improvement for Eastern Counties, but I was wondering if someone could elaborate in more detail?

[alex131297]

Snow over the moor and snow turning to rain on saturday in somerset & Dorest

[Lynxus]

GIGGITY!

Ive been nagging about this moving more westwards in our favour and oh look. Its still happening!

Tbh, At this rate. Im not even sure it will make it into wales

Just made this:

[snowmadchrisuk]

Can anyone elaborate at what the T72 FAX chart shows for our region?

To me it's an improvement for Eastern Counties, but I was wondering if someone could elaborate in more detail?

It corrects the setup around 50-60 Miles further West and keeps a lot of the precipitation as Snow for most of England ...

[AWD]

It corrects the setup around 50-60 Miles further West and keeps a lot of the precipitation as Snow for most of England ...

So for our region, pretty similar to the ECM then?

[Bristawl Si]

Did manage to catch Ian's forecast just now - looked pants for us - in fact a noticeable shift north and east - well that's my take on it anyway

[AWD]

Did manage to catch Ian's forecast just now - looked pants for us - in fact a noticeable shift north and east - well that's my take on it anyway

Very odd considering Ians tweet you posted earlier! Also, I don't think his forecast would of been prepared in time for the 12z data input!

[Nights King]

Did manage to catch Ian's forecast just now - looked pants for us - in fact a noticeable shift north and east - well that's my take on it anyway

Lets hope he did that forecast without seeing the upgrades or thought he wouldn't ramp up the upgrades for us yet?

[snowmadchrisuk]

Did manage to catch Ian's forecast just now - looked pants for us - in fact a noticeable shift north and east - well that's my take on it anyway

The BBC are working on earlier Model runs and they keep stressing they have no Idea where the SNow is likely to be and how much is likely to fall . Scotland is the 1 area they want to rule out at the moment .

[Bristawl Si]

Very odd considering Ians tweet you posted earlier! Also, I don't think his forecast would of been prepared in time for the 12z data input!

Yes you're right - it does seem contradictory - the strange thing is his forecast is live - but then again i guess he wouldn't have seen the output from the last hour.

Would i be correct in saying that the NAE data comes into play in next 24 hours? Is it higher resolution?

[snowmadchrisuk]

So for our region, pretty similar to the ECM then?

Pretty much , but the positive tonight is more Models have joined the ECM in correcting this whole thing further West .. I can't say Cornwall but this could end up backing as far West as Devon but will look forwards to see what the over night Models think ...