South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[divadee]

I feel like im waiting for my lottery numbers to come up! Shouldn't wish my life away but roll on Saturday/Sunday!!

[AWD]

Pretty much , but the positive tonight is more Models have joined the ECM in correcting this whole thing further West .. I can't say Cornwall but this could end up backing as far West as Devon but will look forwards to see what the over night Models think ...

Yep, hopefully another small westward shift on the 0z output! Your updates are always clear and easy to understand, keep them coming!

[Nights King]

better get my prozac out for fridays model runs then! Could it be game on or game over....

[alex131297]

BBC points west said snow for moors, and dorest & somerset before turning to rain. then quickly went :L

[AWD]

better get my prozac out for fridays model runs then! Could it be game on or game over....

Prozac in one hand, champagne in the other!

[Frosty_wsm]

Interestingly the met office warning talks about a band of snow moving slowly across and fizzling out during Sunday and they make no mention at all of snow turning to rain.

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Let me explain... Say you have an evergreen plant (most susceptible even if very hardy like a lorrel hedge) If you have a sub zero wind it basicly freezes to the core of the plant deeper and the roots depending on lengh of freeze and then it also drys out the foiliage of the plant now what this does is it means the plant is losing moisture through the day in its leaves and growth points but cannot replenish water to vital areas because it is still frozen causing alot more cell damage. If you just get a still radiation frost then the plant freezes but does not lose the fluids so fast allowing it to recover when the thaw comes. Another damaging thing for plants is when you get subzero days with core of plant frozen and sun thaws out the edges causing same thing.

Its a rushed response but hope it makes sense.

Back on the subject of snow it would be nice if even if we get transient snow event if the snow could lay around long enough for colder air to move back in and preserve id be happy. Id hate to go to bed with 3 inches of snow to wake up with puddles!

OK Thanks for the explanation

[AWD]

Interestingly the met office warning talks about a band of snow moving slowly across and fizzling out during Sunday and they make no mention at all of snow turning to rain.

Thats on the Saturday warning

[AWD]

Mmmmm, thickness doesnt look that good Saturday night!

[lfcdude]

Reading ians twitter looks like gloc and wilts,but even bristol could see some snow

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http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

you need to do some playing with the variables though...

Check out 141 hours on the ECMWF snowfall!

[Paul T]

Yes you're right - it does seem contradictory - the strange thing is his forecast is live - but then again i guess he wouldn't have seen the output from the last hour.

Would i be correct in saying that the NAE data comes into play in next 24 hours? Is it higher resolution?

NAE will start coming into the fray from todays 18z (+48hrs) that will be a big BIG chart....its always very accurate due to the short term and high res...

[Frosty_wsm]

Mmmmm, thickness doesnt look that good Saturday night!

Wonder if that chart used data from the gfs, which was bad for our region, euros were much better.

[chapmanslade]

Mmmmm, thickness doesnt look that good Saturday night!

That is probably the worst point as certainly according to ECM the small circulation pulls those colder uppers back from the NE. maybe snow - rain - snow for some

[Paul T]

case study as example:

Jan 13th 2010.

375FT Above Sea Level

Plymouth (yes, The mildest winter city in britain)

Temps prior to front coming up from SW = 1.5 - 2oC

Basically a front pushed up from the SW after a spell of cold weather, similar to what we have now:

850 HPAS Were -2oC....and these ROSE slightly as the system pushed across.

This resulted in 3 inches of snow in north Plymouth, and snow in many other areas with lower elavation (i.e Tavistock had 4 inches at 100 ft asl)

Basically, what im trying to say is dont worry to much about the 850's, i think the forecast conditions on Saturday evening are totally fine for snow in Bristol (for example)... i've closely watched so many of these set-ups with absdolute interest since i was a kid, and i can read between the lines fairly accurately now (i would like to think!!)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/jan/13/snow-chaos-uk

[David-kig]

knife edge stuff for this area... tomomrow morning i hopefullly see a BIG upgrade west!!!

[Will Farkin]

The dam line has moved westwards which is much better for us folk in Wiltshire. I still think there will be lots of changes on the next 48 hours.

[Bristawl Si]

NAE will start coming into the fray from todays 18z (+48hrs) that will be a big BIG chart....its always very accurate due to the short term and high res...

Thanks - what time is the NAE 18Z published - i usually view the NAE, only on occasions, via Weatheronline

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

Thanks - what time is the NAE 18Z published - i usually view the NAE, only on occasions, via Weatheronline

9.15

[Bristawl Si]

9.15

Cheers.

At the mo latest forecasts does seem to push worst of snow and more prolonged to the north - Leeds down to B'ham identified as sweet spot, according to series of tweets between Fergie, Liam Dutton and Matt Hugo (seen on mod disc thread and in one of the other regional threads)

[AWD]

Cheers.

At the mo latest forecasts does seem to push worst of snow and more prolonged to the north - Leeds down to B'ham identified as sweet spot, according to series of tweets between Fergie, Liam Dutton and Matt Hugo (seen on mod disc thread and in one of the other regional threads)

We wont be getting the worst, thats for sure!

At the moment we need to concentrate on getting something! Lol! :smilz38:

[weathe20]

Seems with every push west, the main PPN goes NE.

[Bristawl Si]

Seems with every push west, the main PPN goes NE.

seems that way, but the +72hr fax for Sunday midday does show the front stalled down the middle of the UK - a 100mile West adjustment would place it smack bang on top of us!

Just 'took' this from Mod disc thread - OldMetMan (good, reasoned poster IMO)

"The jet is also showing some interesting changes. The is a complex split flow over US/ Canada with one arm heading NW towards us, and a more southerly branch which looks as if it will start to propagate on a much lower latitude. This raises the possibility of the UK being attacked on 2 fronts, with the development of an arctic front with LP heading down from the NW, together with the polar front displaced well south bringing systems in from the SW. If the cold air largely persists over the UK in the coming days with a light E or SE flow, this could provide some entertaining situations, especially if the HP over mid Atlantic extends W towards Canada – that’s the sort of pattern associated with prolonged cold spells." End quote

See the bit i bolded - Now if this scenario played out in a week/2 weeks time it would be really interesting for our part of the world.

[AWD]

seems that way, but the +72hr fax for Sunday midday does show the front stalled down the middle of the UK - a 100mile West adjustment would place it smack bang on top of us!

Just 'took' this from Mod disc thread - OldMetMan (good, reasoned poster IMO)

"The jet is also showing some interesting changes. The is a complex split flow over US/ Canada with one arm heading NW towards us, and a more southerly branch which looks as if it will start to propagate on a much lower latitude. This raises the possibility of the UK being attacked on 2 fronts, with the development of an arctic front with LP heading down from the NW, together with the polar front displaced well south bringing systems in from the SW. If the cold air largely persists over the UK in the coming days with a light E or SE flow, this could provide some entertaining situations, especially if the HP over mid Atlantic extends W towards Canada – that’s the sort of pattern associated with prolonged cold spells." End quote

See the bit i bolded - Now if this scenario played out in a week/2 weeks time it would be really interesting for our part of the world.

Yep, ECM even gives us some more interesting scenarios involving snowfall next week! This isnt over by a long shot, regardless of what happens this weekend

[David-kig]

Yep, ECM even gives us some more interesting scenarios involving snowfall next week! This isnt over by a long shot, regardless of what happens this weekend

il be rubbing for the gem tonight mate with my lucky coin