North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3

[cfallon]

Edited February 3, 2012 by cfallon

[swainclubber]

I think looking today pal we could still be okay with been as far east for snow! Think we will know more tonight!

cheers matey

[Weather-history]

Got down to -8.6C

Some places may have already recorded more frosts this February than they did last February!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Got down to -8.6C

Some places may have already recorded more frosts this February than they did last February!

that wouldnt be hard. We had no frosts at all last year!!

[snowjoking]

Still -7c here at the moment bring on the Snow tomorrow.

[kold weather]

Models still suggesting a decent snow spell is likely, the front looks very active so coyuld be some decent amounts...however it does seem increasingly likely that it'll br a snow-rain event for you guys. NMM also does show the chance of freezing rain tomorrow morning as the first front comes in, worth watching!

[HotCuppa]

Don't want to give anyone nightmares but......

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Night all (run rainfall progression through)

one day the clowns will hire professionals...not fortune tellers...i never listen to a thing the bbc say coz its all clap trap lol

[HotCuppa]

Models still suggesting a decent snow spell is likely, the front looks very active so coyuld be some decent amounts...however it does seem increasingly likely that it'll br a snow-rain event for you guys. NMM also does show the chance of freezing rain tomorrow morning as the first front comes in, worth watching!

This was the case the other day, nothing changed apart from people using mystic forecast charts like the gfs always wrong 06z and the pub run 18z

I never saw anything over the past couple of days to suggest any other outcome..although it wasnt nailed on it still looked extremely good.

frontal snow is a very real distinct possibility even at low levels..i can see it stalling right over manchester way at the pennines.

if it rains after...then i wish it on everyone else outside the nw..haha

Edited February 3, 2012 by HotCuppa

[UV-RAY]

Lets hope the short term models have got this wrong, otherwise we are in for a pointless snow to rain event. As for next week, fingers crossed and hopefully we won't be too far East, West. North, or South.

[Thunder Snow]

Carols forecast on BBC 1 showed mostly rain for my area

[kold weather]

Does look increasingly likely it is a snow-rain event, but to be honest thats all it was ever really going to be for the NW. The more uncertainty with that lies further SE. If it makes you feel better the models do slightly seem to be trending to narrow the snow zone and give a snow-rain event for some central areas now as well.

[UV-RAY]

Does look increasingly likely it is a snow-rain event, but to be honest thats all it was ever really going to be for the NW. The more uncertainty with that lies further SE. If it makes you feel better the models do slightly seem to be trending to narrow the snow zone and give a snow-rain event for some central areas now as well.

There's nothing worse than a snow to rain event, it's akin to ordering your desert first, and then finishing off with a starter.

[MKN]

As long as you guys get a good hour of heavy snow should at least settle temporarily should also be quite fun as it will be fairly heavy, for my area due to it not arriving till after dark im hoping it remains as snow, if its been washed away in the morning id rather be where you are tbh, heavy snow during daylight hours is far better than at night if its all washed away before its morning

[Snow free zone]

Time to admit defeat for this weekend. Had thought after the mid day runs yesterday we could have been for a treat, but looking at the overnight output, and the regional forecasts this morning, it seems like we are looking at a 2hr spell of snow before turning slowly to rain.

The further East and higher you are the better your chances of it hanging around.

Looks fairly cold again next week though, what we need now is a good spell of cold NW winds bringing snow showers in off the Irish Sea.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

This was the case the other day, nothing changed apart from people using mystic forecast charts like the gfs always wrong 06z and the pub run 18z

I never saw anything over the past couple of days to suggest any other outcome..although it wasnt nailed on it still looked extremely good.

frontal snow is a very real distinct possibility even at low levels..i can see it stalling right over manchester way at the pennines.

if it rains after...then i wish it on everyone else outside the nw..haha

what do you think HC in all your years experience do we stand a good chance for snow that lasts or is it likely to turn to rain?

[MKN]

Morning Liam, NMM has the snow starting at 07.00 tomorrow.

And i still coming down 5 hours later at noon. but for some it shows as freezing rain

Could you post the 06z 1s later on, the extra 6 hours following on from these will be quite interesting, although personally want to wait til the 12z roll in before being to sure of what will fall where with much confidence

[kold weather]

Time to admit defeat for this weekend. Had thought after the mid day runs yesterday we could have been for a treat, but looking at the overnight output, and the regional forecasts this morning, it seems like we are looking at a 2hr spell of snow before turning slowly to rain.

The further East and higher you are the better your chances of it hanging around.

Looks fairly cold again next week though, what we need now is a good spell of cold NW winds bringing snow showers in off the Irish Sea.

I still wouldn't 100% rule it out yet mate, sometimes even at short range these frontal systems can pull big surprises. Its unlikely I'll admit but it wouldn't take a huge shift to at the very least keep it as mainly snow with maybe just back end wintry stuff.

[Thunder Snow]

I for one hoPe the front fizzles before getting to the south east, does that make me meean lol

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Typical tbh

[kold weather]

Ha just a little mate!

Anyway the NMM 48hrs 00z run isn't 'that' bad for E.parts of the NW. A delay of a couple of hours really would do the world of goods to eastern parts. For W.parts the only hope is really if your above say 200-300M.

[Snow free zone]

I still wouldn't 100% rule it out yet mate, sometimes even at short range these frontal systems can pull big surprises. Its unlikely I'll admit but it wouldn't take a huge shift to at the very least keep it as mainly snow with maybe just back end wintry stuff.

Kold, it was always looking marginal for the coastal strip and say 20 miles inland - that was of course until yesterday. You could say we are in the same position we were in on Tues/Wed. It still remains very difficult to get lying snow from one of these set ups here a la 1996, the circumstances have to be perfect.

Looking forward though to perhaps some more chances next week.

[Liam J]

Looks like it will turn to rain west of the Pennines and even quicker further west with low & coastal areas not even seeing snowfall.

The front would need to be aligned N to S or even better NW to SE with SE'ly winds keeping the cold flow undercutting ahead of the front as per Feb 1996.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Liam J

[Thunder Snow]

As things stand this is my take on things this weekend, a front will begin to move in from the Atlantic during the early hours bringing rain to western Scotland and northern Ireland. This could fall as a wintry mix to low levels at first, and more eapically for higher routes. As we move through the morning I expect the front to deliver some snow to parts of central and eastern Scotland for a time before turning back to rain. As for northern England, nw England and Wales away from the coast I think we could see 1-3 hours of heavy snow before it turn back to rain. For eastern and central areas of the uk at the moment I think it's game on with 5-15cm of snow likely.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Doesnt even look like i'll see a snowflake! arhhhh sometimes i hate living here!

[chris78]

Looks like it will turn to rain west of the Pennines and even quicker further west with low & coastal areas not even seeing snowfall.

The front would need to be aligned N to S or even better NW to SE with SE'ly winds keeping the cold flow undercutting ahead of the front as per Feb 1996.

lets be honest that was always the likely outcome....the very fact that we keep citing 1996, while being evidence that theses situations can bring snow tor NW coasts, its stronger evidence that it usually doesnt....it was 16 years ago...and when was the time before that......

someone will call this negative, they always do....but I never hear them saying they were deluded when the drip drip starts....