North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3

[Weather-history]

Difficult to tell how this will pan out. I can think of late January 1995 breakdown, a couple of days after the Yorkshire snow event, we had an all snow event and the snow actually stuck and we had a temprorary covering. It never turned to rain, it just stopped and then there was a slow thaw. Then there was the New Year's Eve 2000 breakdown which looked like it could produce a temporrary snow event but was a non event on the whole.

Then going back to early January 1986 when it was epxected to be a snow turning to rain event but it stayed as snow and there was no thaw. I think we can only sit back and wait with this but i feel the sooner the fronts occlude the better for snow prospects here.

lets be honest that was always the likely outcome....the very fact that we keep citing 1996, while being evidence that theses situations can bring snow tor NW coasts, its stronger evidence that it usually doesnt....it was 16 years ago...and when was the time before that......

How did coastal areas do with the March 2006 snow event?

[I Cumbria Marra I]

GFS looks worse already

Edited February 3, 2012 by I Cumbria Marra I

[chris78]

Difficult to tell how this will pan out. I can think of late January 1995 breakdown, a couple of days after the Yorkshire snow event, we had an all snow event and the snow actually stuck and we had a temprorary covering. It never turned to rain, it just stopped and then there was a slow thaw. Then there was the New Year's Eve 2000 breakdown which looked like it could produce a temporrary snow event but was a non event on the whole.

Then going back to early January 1986 when it was epxected to be a snow turning to rain event but it stayed as snow and there was no thaw. I think we can only sit back and wait with this but i feel the sooner the fronts occlude the better for snow prospects here.

How did coastal areas do with the March 2006 snow event?

must admit dont remember that one...just looked up, I saw Liverpool got a fair bit...I was in my first year as self employed gardener..so significant snow here in March should stick in the memory......so im guessing we (Preston and Fylde Coast) didn't see much but I stand to be corrected by someone with a more reliable memory....

[Liam J]

lets be honest that was always the likely outcome....the very fact that we keep citing 1996, while being evidence that theses situations can bring snow tor NW coasts, its stronger evidence that it usually doesnt....it was 16 years ago...and when was the time before that......

someone will call this negative, they always do....but I never hear them saying they were deluded when the drip drip starts....

Hence my post stating why we would need to see the front aligned in that way in order to get a decent event which wasn't snow to rain. 12th March 2006 was another very good set-up here and other parts of NW England with very heavy drifting snow, Some areas had 20cm+ of snow down to sea level during the east meets west battle.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Liam J

[I Cumbria Marra I]

can see the whole NW getting rain/sleet now

[Snow free zone]

must admit dont remember that one...just looked up, I saw Liverpool got a fair bit...I was in my first year as self employed gardener..so significant snow here in March should stick in the memory......so im guessing we (Preston and Fylde Coast) didn't see much but I stand to be corrected by someone with a more reliable memory....

We got a bit of snow out of it, but nothing like the amounts other parts of the NW got.

Best set up for us here for snow is either cold NW with showers/front off the Irish Sea (2009) or the stalling front 1996.

[Weather-history]

Time to look at airport TAFs

Manchester airport goes for light snow

long-TAF: EGCC 030958Z 0309/0412 VRB04KT 6000 SCT040 BECMG 0309/0312 9999 BECMG 0409/0412 17012KT PROB30 TEMPO 0410/0412 7000 -SN

[Backtrack]

Such a shame that the BBC forecasters and professionals I have on twitter keep posting snow charts that show all of the region under 7-10cm of snow. Keep in mind that these have x10 the amount of data we have.

I will await today's FAX before making my judgement.

[Lancashire Lass]

Difficult to tell how this will pan out. I can think of late January 1995 breakdown, a couple of days after the Yorkshire snow event, we had an all snow event and the snow actually stuck and we had a temprorary covering. It never turned to rain, it just stopped and then there was a slow thaw. Then there was the New Year's Eve 2000 breakdown which looked like it could produce a temporrary snow event but was a non event on the whole.

Then going back to early January 1986 when it was epxected to be a snow turning to rain event but it stayed as snow and there was no thaw. I think we can only sit back and wait with this but i feel the sooner the fronts occlude the better for snow prospects here.

How did coastal areas do with the March 2006 snow event?

They did quiet well from what I remember.

'The M6 south of Lancaster, Lancashire was badly affected by snow and the A588 near Fleetwood, Lancashire, became impassable'

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/snow_info.php

Edited February 3, 2012 by Lancashire Lass

[I Cumbria Marra I]

I can remember the 2006 march event because i got about 15cm and huge drifts from it! since then we havent had more than 3 inches

Such a shame that the BBC forecasters and professionals I have on twitter keep posting snow charts that show all of the region under 7-10cm of snow. Keep in mind that these have x10 the amount of data we have.

I will await today's FAX before making my judgement.

why is that a shame? would you mind posting the charts up please?

[Backtrack]

I can remember the 2006 march event because i got about 15cm and huge drifts from it! since then we havent had more than 3 inches

why is that a shame? would you mind posting the charts up please?

I was being sarcastic. Yes I'll post them, one sec.

[kold weather]

NAE still going for snow-rain in the NW, probably a good couple of cms from it before the change arrives. The models are becoming more marginal with time across the whole country as a small low forms, which in marginal set-up serves to strengthen the precip but makes it even more marginal.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

ah right

[Backtrack]

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81

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NW Eng: Away from the Fylde coast/other low lying areas of W regions of NW Eng, expect approx 4cm to 8cm of snow through Saturday...

https://twitter.com/#!/MattHugo81/status/165375527115440128/photo/1

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81

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@fergieweather - Similar totals look likely across N/NW Eng with 5cm to 10cm likely from what i've seen.

NAE still going for snow-rain in the NW, probably a good couple of cms from it before the change arrives. The models are becoming more marginal with time across the whole country as a small low forms, which in marginal set-up serves to strengthen the precip but makes it even more marginal.

I'm starting to think it'll only be a brief change to rain.

There are colder uppers again behind the front. Could turn the back edge to rain should they undercut.

[swainclubber]

ah well not to worry. at least a bit of snow will be seen before it melts.

[Backtrack]

Low of -4.5C last night. That should be beaten tonight. I reckon by about 1am.

[Lancashire Lass]

-6C it got down to here last night. What are people's current dewpoints out of interest? Mine has been fluctuating quiet a bit this morning.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Lancashire Lass

[I Cumbria Marra I]

BT that shows snow across the whole of the uk near enough, cant see that happening.

[Backtrack]

BT that shows snow across the whole of the uk near enough, cant see that happening.

Well you go and question the Met Office's data...if you dare. :lol:

[Liam J]

The GFS snow depth charts are shockingly incorrect, They show accumulated snow where the PPN is kept as all rain by this model. Crazy.

[The Northern Ramper]

If we are to see an upgrade due to the block being underestimated by the models we will see it within the next 12 hours as this is when it is starting to be pushed out.

[gareth73]

-7c when i arrived at work in wilmslow at 5.45am

[chiffer]

I'm still convinced the high pressure will slap back to the west a bit! Maybe a little less convinced later.

[Backtrack]

Just wait for the ECM.

That's been in our favour the last few days, hopefully it'll do it again.

Still -1.1C here, ice day now looking unlikely though.

[Stephen_Mcr]

I think any lying snow could survive into next week looking at the temps but only if it stops before the temps rise for any PPN will fall as rain.

Hopefully we'll get a dumping and then it'll stop... but thats probably best case for here now (with a bit of hope-casting thrown in too)