North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3

[The Northern Ramper]

Rochdale five-day forecast

Date Time Weather Temp Wind Visibility Dir Speed Gust Fri

3

Feb 1200 -2 °C SW 3 mph Moderate 1500 0 °C WSW 4 mph Moderate 1800 -1 °C WNW 2 mph Good 2100 -2 °C E 2 mph Moderate Sat

4

Feb 0000 -3 °C NW 2 mph Moderate 0300 -4 °C SE 3 mph Moderate 0600 -4 °C SW 6 mph Moderate 0900 -3 °C SSW 9 mph Moderate 1200 0 °C S 13 mph 26 mph Good 1500 -1 °C S 15 mph 33 mph Moderate 1800 0 °C S 16 mph 34 mph Moderate Night -2 °C SE 4 mph Moderate Sun

5

Feb Day 3 °C SSW 5 mph Very Poor Night 0 °C SE 3 mph Very Poor

Looking decent on the forecast

[Liam J]

Temp up to 0.9c here, a less cold day than yesterday likely. 2.2c to beat, should topple that before midday.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Liam J

[Lancashire Lass]

Try not to be too downbeat eh. Meto warnings are still in place for the NW. I'm not trying to give false hope but lets just see how it all pans out. If nothing comes of it then we can have a quick moan and then onwards and upwards. Lots of potential to look forward to for the rest of Feb.

[swainclubber]

Just wait for the ECM.

That's been in our favour the last few days, hopefully it'll do it again.

Still -1.1C here, ice day now looking unlikely though.

when does that next output mate? it's not one I ever check to be honest

[cheshire snow]

why am i getting that usual sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach???

looking like a snow to rain event with a quick thaw there after

C.S

[Backtrack]

Judging by the Met Office:

6 hours of heavy snow with temperatures at or below 0C from 1500 - 2100 followed by a period of freezing rain, as the temperatures dip below freezing but the uppers are mixed out.

Temperatures & dewpoints aren't the problem - the upper air is.

when does that next output mate? it's not one I ever check to be honest

6pm.

This ECM update will nail it for sure. Pay no attention to the NMM too. It's pretty much useless for precipitation despite it's high res.

Stick to the NAE & HIRLAM.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Backtrack

[I Cumbria Marra I]

6pm.

This ECM update will nail it for sure. Pay no attention to the NMM too. It's pretty much useless for precipitation despite it's high res.

Stick to the NAE & HIRLAM.

wtf you confuse me sometimes

[swainclubber]

Judging by the Met Office:

6 hours of heavy snow with temperatures at or below 0C from 1500 - 2100 followed by a period of freezing rain, as the temperatures dip below freezing but the uppers are mixed out.

Temperatures & dewpoints aren't the problem - the upper air is.

6pm.

This ECM update will nail it for sure. Pay no attention to the NMM too. It's pretty much useless for precipitation despite it's high res.

Stick to the NAE & HIRLAM.

OK cheers. is it a once daily output? or 6 am also?

[gearbox1002]

Seems everyone is now off the fence with a snow to rain event.

[chris78]

Judging by the Met Office:

6 hours of heavy snow with temperatures at or below 0C from 1500 - 2100 followed by a period of freezing rain, as the temperatures dip below freezing but the uppers are mixed out.

Temperatures & dewpoints aren't the problem - the upper air is.

6pm.

This ECM update will nail it for sure. Pay no attention to the NMM too. It's pretty much useless for precipitation despite it's high res.

Stick to the NAE & HIRLAM.

BT if im reading it right...does that mean even if we do get a full snow event (when I say we I dont mean me this close to the coast but others in the nw) that the chance of sticking around through sunday is slim to none (meto currently predict as high as 6 for our region on sunday)

...if so seems like were all getting over interested in an event that at very best will see snow lie through the night and then melt the next day?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Lets wait and see what tomorrow brings.

Like i said yesterday its a nono for west of the region and imo its starting to look very much like a snow to rain scenario even to the east of the region now.

The MMM model is shocking and brings freezing rain in very quickly.

The NAE model now suggests snow to rain even in the east of the region.

national forecast im watching right now has it turning to rain across the WHOLE region saturday night.

Oh dear.

[cfallon]

Having looked at all the different forecasts today i would say meto forecast is the best of the bunch! Really can't call it at the moment will have to wait for the ECM

[Liam J]

Pay no attention to the NMM too. It's pretty much useless for precipitation despite it's high res.

Stick to the NAE & HIRLAM.

You contradict yourself many times BT, last night you said the NAE was rubbish but now you are singing it's praises? Stop confusing people mate.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

BBC NEWS 24 have just updated there graphics and its alot better than before especially for people south in the region but then they show it turning to rain

[Backtrack]

You contradict yourself many times BT, last night you said the NAE was rubbish but now you are singing it's praises? Stop confusing people mate.

TBF - I don't like the NAE, but I find the precipitation charts to be more accurate than the NMM.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

national forecast im watching right now has it turning to rain across the WHOLE region saturday night.

Oh dear.

its alot better than the one which was on an hour ago

[Backtrack]

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

^^^ *main focus of snow in the East Midlands & The SE - Wales & NW England CERTAINLY not going to miss out either*

OK cheers. is it a once daily output? or 6 am also?

Twice a day. 6am-7am 6pm-7pm

BT if im reading it right...does that mean even if we do get a full snow event (when I say we I dont mean me this close to the coast but others in the nw) that the chance of sticking around through sunday is slim to none (meto currently predict as high as 6 for our region on sunday)

...if so seems like were all getting over interested in an event that at very best will see snow lie through the night and then melt the next day?

Even if it stayed as snow throughout, it's probably going to be gone by Monday.

Similar to the December 16th snow event - albeit with more snow.

[swainclubber]

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

^^^ *main focus of snow in the East Midlands & The SE - Wales & NW England CERTAINLY not going to miss out either*

Twice a day. 6am-7am 6pm-7pm

Even if it stayed as snow throughout, it's probably going to be gone by Monday.

Similar to the December 16th snow event - albeit with more snow.

cheers I take it this mornings was pants

[Backtrack]

cheers I take it this mornings was pants

It wasn't bad

Little something to leave you with before I take the dog:

Brief mild blip before colder conditions.

[cheshire snow]

I suppose we should not conplain a few hours of heavy snow before slightly milder air turns it back to

rain

my only positive is we just dont know how long the snow will last meto might have under estimated the whole lot

after all a forecast i saw this morning they still use the word uncertainty...on the other hand they might be bang on

as for next week more chances of snow for the NW but dont look a the GFS6z file that in the bin lol

still intresting times ahead me thinks after tomorrow we have not seen the last of the snow

C.S

[chris78]

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

^^^ *main focus of snow in the East Midlands & The SE - Wales & NW England CERTAINLY not going to miss out either*

Twice a day. 6am-7am 6pm-7pm

Even if it stayed as snow throughout, it's probably going to be gone by Monday.

Similar to the December 16th snow event - albeit with more snow.

I think that CERTAINLY in caps is the sort of thing that confuses people. I think you joined here a while before me..its been impressive how enthusiastic you are and how much you have picked up, while I just read posts you have learned to read the charts! However as soon as snow is forecast everything you have picked up seems to disappear, to be replaced with blind optimism....

.

....as you have become a knowledgeable poster people look to and respect your opinion.....

there are two perfectly reasonable ways to respond to that

1) im not anybodies personal weather man...its the internet for god sake its not serious

2) people are looking to your opinion, so you you feel that responsibility and try to give balanced unbiased forecasts....

Like I said either response is as valid as the other...

[cfallon]

I think that CERTAINLY in caps is the sort of thing that confuses people. I think you joined here a while before me..its been impressive how enthusiastic you are and how much you have picked up, while I just read posts you have learned to read the charts! However as soon as snow is forecast everything you have picked up seems to disappear, to be replaced with blind optimism....

.

....as you have become a knowledgeable poster people look to and respect your opinion.....

there are two perfectly reasonable ways to respond to that

1) im not anybodies personal weather man...its the internet for god sake its not serious

2) people are looking to your opinion, so you you feel that responsibility and try to give balanced unbiased forecasts....

Like I said either response is as valid as the other...

Give him a break!

[cheshire snow]

Chill pill required for some,me included

BT...carry on the way you do mate no harm at all in what you think and post

its just the weather guys WE CANNOT CHANGE IT.....

C.S

[chris78]

Give him a break!

Your probably right...sorry BT like I said you dont have to feel any responsibly (its only the internet)......

I really do respect your knowledge....but sometimes have to take it with a pinch of salt when snows involved.....but your not my personal weatherman, so I shouldn't have had a go!

[Backtrack]

I think that CERTAINLY in caps is the sort of thing that confuses people. I think you joined here a while before me..its been impressive how enthusiastic you are and how much you have picked up, while I just read posts you have learned to read the charts! However as soon as snow is forecast everything you have picked up seems to disappear, to be replaced with blind optimism....

.

....as you have become a knowledgeable poster people look to and respect your opinion.....

there are two perfectly reasonable ways to respond to that

1) im not anybodies personal weather man...its the internet for god sake its not serious

2) people are looking to your opinion, so you you feel that responsibility and try to give balanced unbiased forecasts....

Like I said either response is as valid as the other...

I think if you watch the video, you'll understand why I put 'certainly' in caps. It was representing emphasis on that word.

I'm a cold ramper - you should know that by now

And yes, I'm not anyone's personal weather man. I come here to post, inform people & have fun, just as anyone else. I just choose to post in a way that get's my point across in a good way. I could be more like Ian Brown if you like? Okay challenge accepted. For the rest of the day, I will be Ian Brown.

Uppers too warm, thickness too high, temperatures & dewpoints will rise as frontal cloud hits causing a drastic rise in temperature. Rain all the way for the NW, SE to get pasted.