North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3

[gearbox1002]

I am new here and love BT optimism its refreshing and as I am probably much much older than most on here I carry no chart knowledge just experience.

I know that every major event I've experienced has not been Forcast and been a suprise and every forcasted event usually fails completely or is downgraded so much its a non event.

That's just how the weather guessing game is when it comes to snow.

I appreciate BT optimism and yesterday was really entertaining. Keep up the good work.

[Liam J]

Come on guys, handbags down please. If you wish to carry on and resolve any issues between each other do so via PM.

Cheers.

[chris78]

I think if you watch the video, you'll understand why I put 'certainly' in caps. It was representing emphasis on that word.

I'm a cold ramper - you should know that by now

And yes, I'm not anyone's personal weather man. I come here to post, inform people & have fun, just as anyone else. I just choose to post in a way that get's my point across in a good way. I could be more like Ian Brown if you like? Okay challenge accepted. For the rest of the day, I will be Ian Brown.

Uppers too warm, thickness too high, temperatures & dewpoints will rise as frontal cloud hits causing a drastic rise in temperature. Rain all the way for the NW, SE to get pasted.

no please dont do that! come back Baktrack all is forgiven!

Edited February 3, 2012 by chris78

[Snow free zone]

I think there is a bit of hopecasting going on here. West of the M6 (again) will be very lucky to see more than a copuple of hours of snow. Higher ground and areas from say 30 miles inland may get a covering, but the latest forecasts even suggest this may turn to rain sooner rather than later.

I have seen this so many times and this part of the region suffers, no matter what you'd like to happen past experience suggests otherwise.

Trying not to sound like an old fart - honestly. I don't possess alot of knowledge re the charts, a little maybe but no where near as much as others. I am hoping to try and to be realistic even though it is not what i may want to see.

And Backtrack - the kids will be round Monday morning

Edited February 3, 2012 by Snow free zone

[cheshire snow]

another excellent post from GP on the MOD Thread well worth a resd guys......

C.S

[cfallon]

I think if you watch the video, you'll understand why I put 'certainly' in caps. It was representing emphasis on that word.

I'm a cold ramper - you should know that by now

And yes, I'm not anyone's personal weather man. I come here to post, inform people & have fun, just as anyone else. I just choose to post in a way that get's my point across in a good way. I could be more like Ian Brown if you like? Okay challenge accepted. For the rest of the day, I will be Ian Brown.

Uppers too warm, thickness too high, temperatures & dewpoints will rise as frontal cloud hits causing a drastic rise in temperature. Rain all the way for the NW, SE to get pasted.

Noooooooooo bring back the cold ramper!

[Osamasbinsledgin]

Can often be surprised by marginal events, December 16th 2011, a snow event predicted to hit West Mids ( Wolverhampton Dudley) actually hit my area and further south around Beeston quite badly.There was still no indication of this change, until the event actually happened , and i was caught out ( as i was travelling on the A41)No matter what the models forecasts say, slight changes to the front/ block as it moves through, can change precipitation amounts/types in an instant.

[Liam J]

2.3c here now and rising! More cloud cover than of late along with a freshening SE'ly wind making it feel raw.

Isle of Man still managing to maintain an air temp of 3c and dew point below 0c even with a strong southerly breeze.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Liam J

[weatherobsuk]

Buxton eventually went down to a minima of -7.0'c exactly overnight. Temps still below -1.3'c but steadily rising with more of a ground frost evident across the hillsides and rooftops this morning as DPs are now higher. BBC Forecast still going for a snow/rain clearance but what caught my eye was the steadily progression of the front out of the NW Region, if we had rain the MetO are progging it to only be a hour (half an hour) at best before moving out, this would barely have time to transition back to sleet across the Pennines depending on the uppers. not to mention the cold front behind it lowering temps once again in clearing skies.

Almost as it people have forgotten about the cold front behind this and are solely concentrating on the 'battleground.' Depending on speed that cold front behind could advect more sub 850hpa temps through forcing alone, obviously there's no signs its going to be a LEWP type of front but convective cooling will obviously play it's play.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I think there is a bit of hopecasting going on here. West of the M6 (again) will be very lucky to see more than a copuple of hours of snow. Higher ground and areas from say 30 miles inland may get a covering, but the latest forecasts even suggest this may turn to rain sooner rather than later.

I have seen this so many times and this part of the region suffers, no matter what you'd like to happen past experience suggests otherwise.

Trying not to sound like an old fart - honestly. I don't possess alot of knowledge re the charts, a little maybe but no where near as much as others. I am hoping to try and to be realistic even though it is not what i may want to see.

And Backtrack - the kids will be round Monday morning

excellent post i agree,unfortunately.

As i said there is a chance things could change favourabley at the last min but i dont hold out much hope for that

[Darren Bown]

Looking like this, well, whatever it will be, will hit Manchester around 4pm just when in leaving work! Getting to work at 6am on Sunday morning may be interesting!

[Thunder Snow]

Cloudy with a temp of 0c going by my car. What time is the front expected to hit our area Liam/anyone what should I expect rain ?

[Backtrack]

0.0C and falling.

[frostbitten]

I'm just going to enjoy tomorrows snow however much we get. Will take the kids and the dog for a nice walk and cherish any snow we get after all time is running down on this winter tomorrows event may be the last chance of snowfall.

Edited February 3, 2012 by frostbitten

[Backtrack]

Last post for a while. I'm taking a break. I'm obviously ramping this too much.

Temps down to about -6C tonight, coastal areas could be a little warmer as a brief westerly tint to the wind is picked up.

Other than that, enjoy.

Bye.

[gareth73]

So the mild air will sweep in late afternoon on Saturday, how long do we expect the mild air stay before the really cold pushes back in as next week looks cold to very cold I think?

[shadowfax]

Meto forecast for Haslingden still showing heavy snow tomorrow and no turning to rain to be seen, I am higher than that so I am hoping that it will continue to apply and I will get my snow!!

[feb1991blizzard]

another excellent post from GP on the MOD Thread well worth a resd guys......

C.S

Yes and a post he did not so long ago suggested a little cooling of the stratosphere would not be terrible. Ive been pessimistic lately as in particular our region seems to get false dawns for them never to materialise but this chart underneath shows a similar pattern to one of the 500mb aomaly charts GP posted, i know its a long way off but not without support from teleconnections, the PV is non existant and i could not see it reforming anytime soon after so IF it were to come close to verifying, i would be blowing the trumpet for a cold March as well.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120203/00/336/h500slp.png

[gearbox1002]

Met office are confusing, they bang on about snow to rain and then upgrade the warnings to cover everywhere for Saturday and Sunday. They need to make their minds up instead of playing the we will be right if we say every senario. Ha

[weatherobsuk]

Snow-Forecast keeping things for the majority of the UK, the new 4-6 day charts has 10-25cm of snowfall across northern parts of Wales most likely in association with the cold front behind this, much talked about, warm front.

I guess I should throw a link in there aswell for that http://www.snow-fore...maps/dynamic/uk

reposted on requested.

[chris78]

Met office are confusing, they bang on about snow to rain and then upgrade the warnings to cover everywhere for Saturday and Sunday. They need to make their minds up instead of playing the we will be right if we say every senario. Ha

would you rather they just took a punt and hoped for the best, they are not sure and that is what they are saying....they really cant win in situations like this

I suppose the meto can and will get stick when warnings are issued to early or too late...but when we criticize for them not knowing exactly whats going to happen...then that's more about human understanding of the weather rather than the meto.

[The Northern Ramper]

Met office are confusing, they bang on about snow to rain and then upgrade the warnings to cover everywhere for Saturday and Sunday. They need to make their minds up instead of playing the we will be right if we say every senario. Ha

The met-office have an all snow event on my regional forecast and have upgraded the warning to amber.

[weatherobsuk]

A band of wet weather over Northern Ireland and western Scotland early Saturday will move slowly east and southeastwards across the United Kingdom during the day. As it does so it will readily turn to sleet and snow away from western and southwestern coastal areas giving accumulations of 2-5cm in places and 5-10cm widely in the amber warning area. The snow is expected to turn to rain over some northwestern areas later. As skies then clear in this area after dark, icy patches will develop. The public are advised that this is likely to lead to some travel disruption, and it is recommended to keep up to date with forecasts as the event approaches.

As I was mentioning before the key is to watch how slow the system moves in beforehand, then as it pivots across the Occluded edge (where the temperature gradient is less evident) is where to watch how quickly the system moves out of our region for those in Cheshire still within the milder influence. If wind vectors are fast and the MetO prog it to be a quickly moving system out of our region then any snowfall will remain on the ground.

If it lingers however any low-lying areas will see the milder temps swarm the snow fields, while higher ground still within this amber warning will get some quite tasty accumulations.

[Liam J]

A few hours of snowfall before quickly turning to rain from the west, remaining as snow from roughly the Pennines eastwards before clearing.

I think these charts are a little optimistic for some towards the west.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Liam J

[swainclubber]

The met-office have an all snow event on my regional forecast and have upgraded the warning to amber.

yeah it will get deep and that may well require amber mate but it ain't likely to last I wouldn't have thought.