North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3

[NickyB]

SNOW_JOKE - thanks for the re-post

Liam J - us North Westeners are optimists to the core :-)

[The Northern Ramper]

yeah it will get deep and that may well require amber mate but it ain't likely to last I wouldn't have thought.

i think we will get enough and only the tail end may turn to rain, if indeed it does.

[swainclubber]

i think we will get enough and only the tail end may turn to rain, if indeed it does.

fingers crossed.

[Liam J]

According to the Meto tomorrow I should have drizzle by 12am, hail showers at 3pm then heavy rain by 6pm. The front seems to be coming in later by this forecast?

Temp 3.3c here.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Liam J

[UV-RAY]

I wouldn't be building any hopes of snow lying for long at lower elevations, once the front as cleared. I feel that this is going to turn out, as one giant damp squib for most of the UK. The more I look at the angle of attack, the more unfavourable it looks for more than an hour or so of snow.

[HotCuppa]

am not convinced about this snow to rain event as it stands.something is not right about it.

I think a lot of mild ramping in the forecast. For me the GFS is being to extreme, and im not convinced one bit by it in the slightest.

It always over plays the mild westerly whenever it gets the chance to, and I think its doing exactly the same stunt here...lol it cannot even get 24 hours right..so for me, its watch tomorrow from early hours..best anyone can do is guess the timing of the front..who knows, maybe the people who made the forecast will end up with egg on their faces yet again with an inaccurate forecast haha

[Snow free zone]

Looking at the town forecasts on the met office website you can see what effect they are expecting the milder air to have.

Blackpool/Liverpool sleet/sleet-rain

Preston/Warrington snow/sleet-drizzle

Blackburn/Crewe snow/snow/sleet

Haslingden/Manchester snow/snow/snow light snow

Forecasts from 12 noon tomorrow. Going by that expected to be an all snow event for those further East.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Snow free zone

[HotCuppa]

Looking at the town forecasts on the met office website you can see what effect they are expecting the milder air to have.

Blackpool/Liverpool sleet/sleet-rain

Preston/Warrington snow/sleet-drizzle

Blackburn/Crewe snow/snow/sleet

Haslingden snow/snow/snow light snow

Forecasts from 12 noon tomorrow.

this is the same company who have yet to even get a forecast right for Liverpool and immediate surrounding areas..only time they are right is when its summer time lol

Liverpool airport is going for snow from 10am

Edited February 3, 2012 by HotCuppa

[Backtrack]

am not convinced about this snow to rain event as it stands.something is not right about it.

I think a lot of mild ramping in the forecast. For me the GFS is being to extreme, and im not convinced one bit by it in the slightest.

It always over plays the mild westerly whenever it gets the chance to, and I think its doing exactly the same stunt here...lol it cannot even get 24 hours right..so for me, its watch tomorrow from early hours..best anyone can do is guess the timing of the front..who knows, maybe the people who made the forecast will end up with egg on their faces yet again with an inaccurate forecast haha

Hey HC - What does your mate at the airport think?

[Liam J]

High res HIRLAM model is probably the worse outcome for much of the UK, as it proggs a fast moving frontal band which clears the SE and fizzles out over France with temps of 4-6c by Sunday.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Liam J

[davacr123]

Just had a look on metcheck and this is what it was showing for tomorrow

[Osamasbinsledgin]

Distance between Liverpool -Manchester is 26 miles completely insignificant in weather terms, don't believe these town forecasts, from that data you would assume the front is only about 5 miles wide ? Once the front hits the NW of the region

tomorrow, we will know a lot more

[martinj2]

am not convinced about this snow to rain event as it stands.something is not right about it.

I think a lot of mild ramping in the forecast. For me the GFS is being to extreme, and im not convinced one bit by it in the slightest.

It always over plays the mild westerly whenever it gets the chance to, and I think its doing exactly the same stunt here...lol it cannot even get 24 hours right..so for me, its watch tomorrow from early hours..best anyone can do is guess the timing of the front..who knows, maybe the people who made the forecast will end up with egg on their faces yet again with an inaccurate forecast haha

I dunno, I never trust anything from the East delivering anything here, even though the moisture is coming from the West,. As someone said earlier, the last Eastern dominated snow event was 1986-so how rare is that! I reckon that Eastern block would have to push 50-100 miles further West for us on Western Coasts to have a decent dumping, it seems there's no chance of that now.

I see the word Easterly, and think forget snow here (on coast).

Hope I'm wrong, but just from experience I can see Western coasts just seeing sleet/rain. Its annoying, we put up with bitterly cold sunny days and sub zero nights, and when the ppn does come-it turns up as rain.

Give me Northerlies or North Westerlies anytime!

Edited February 3, 2012 by martinj2

[NickyB]

Distance between Liverpool -Manchester is 26 miles completely insignificant in weather terms, don't believe these town forecasts, from that data you would assume the front is only about 5 miles wide ? Once the front hits the NW of the region

tomorrow, we will know a lot more

You couldn't be mor wrong - The distance and Liverpool being on the Mersey/Irish Sea is massively significant. Our weather is very different !

[chris78]

I dunno, I never trust anything from the East delivering anything here, even though the moisture is coming from the West,. As someone said earlier, the last Eastern dominated snow event was 1986-so how rare is that! I reckon that Eastern block would have to push 50-100 miles further West for us on Western Coasts to have a decent dumping, it seems there's no chance of that now.

I see the word Easterly, and think forget snow here (on coast).

Hope I'm wrong, but just from experience I can see Western coasts just seeing sleet/rain. Its annoying, we put up with bitterly cold sunny days and sub zero nights, and when the ppn does come-it turns up as rain.

Give me Northerlies or North Westerlies anytime!

I think more and more people are starting to agree...its getting slower in the north west thread by the hour....as the picture clear a bit..

[Lancashire Lass]

Last post for a while. I'm taking a break. I'm obviously ramping this too much.

Temps down to about -6C tonight, coastal areas could be a little warmer as a brief westerly tint to the wind is picked up.

Other than that, enjoy.

Bye.

Thought I was in the Backtrack thread earlier

Come on Backtrack you say this every year. Stop being daft, take a breather, go walk the dog, enjoy the crisp sunshine and blue skies.

[Liam J]

Temp fallen back down to 1.9c now, more cloud around blocking the suns warmth. very cold wind.

[Snow free zone]

I dunno, I never trust anything from the East delivering anything here, even though the moisture is coming from the West,. As someone said earlier, the last Eastern dominated snow event was 1986-so how rare is that! I reckon that Eastern block would have to push 50-100 miles further West for us on Western Coasts to have a decent dumping, it seems there's no chance of that now.

I see the word Easterly, and think forget snow here (on coast).

Hope I'm wrong, but just from experience I can see Western coasts just seeing sleet/rain. Its annoying, we put up with bitterly cold sunny days and sub zero nights, and when the ppn does come-it turns up as rain.

Give me Northerlies or North Westerlies anytime!

Totally agree Martin. It never has or will be any different. Easterlies very rarely deliver anything other than cold dry days and very frosty nights for us.

The thing is as a region we could probably be split into two sub regions, those of us say within 20/25 miles of the coast and the rest. Its a bit different for instance, me saying for snow Easterlies are poor, but if you go to Manchester or some of the more Eastery Lancashire towns Burnley, Accrington etc you can quite easily get snow. On the flip side out of a cold NWerly then the areas nearer the coast do better. Its swings and roundabouts. I keep mentioning it but how far inland did the christmas day snow get in 2004 ?

It is fairly pointless getting wound up about it though, what will be will be. I remember my dad saying to me when I was younger when I used to get a bit upset at the lack of snow, there was a reason they built the cotton mills in West Lancashire ..........

Now I do sound like an old fart

[Cheshire Freeze]

LOL that amber warning line bisects Crewe

0.3C here btw...top temp of 0.5C for the day

Edited February 3, 2012 by CreweCold

[Backtrack]

Thought I was in the Backtrack thread earlier

Come on Backtrack you say this every year. Stop being daft, take a breather, go walk the dog, enjoy the crisp sunshine and blue skies.

Will do thanks LL.

Will go take the dog up the hills till sunset, and come back and watch my temperature go down.

0C here btw -7C expected tonight, -10C a possibility.

[Liam J]

Plenty of cloud heading our way on the satellite, no where near as cold tonight as the last few nights have been, especially towards the west of the region.

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

Edited February 3, 2012 by Liam J

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just had a nosey at the GEM and as yesterday, it's bullish about this front arriving later and keeping the precipitation as snow for the majority of the UK

[Backtrack]

Interestingly the models still cannot pin point the front.

Matt Hugo just tweeted me back on Twitter. I asked him for his thoughts for Cheshire and he replied saying "yes, snow tomorrow"

GAME ON.

[UV-RAY]

Interestingly the models still cannot pin point the front.

Matt Hugo just tweeted me back on Twitter. I asked him for his thoughts for Cheshire and he replied saying "yes, snow tomorrow"

GAME ON.

Turning to rain later!

[Liam J]

12z's will be rolling out within the hour hmmmm.... What will they serve us?