Scotland Regional Discussion - Cold Spell Part 2

[snowy owl]

It may be mild, but we've succumbed to the germs of winter, so spent the weekend dealing with sickness and .... yes the unmentionable!! after having had both children with hacking coughs and the cold through last week! Bring back the freeze all is forgiven.

However we adults are all still surviving, a beer with the rugby sounds excellent Lorenzo might just join you.

Weather charts - ho hum,will wait a little longer to see where things go.

[lorenzo]

Cheers LS, that's saved me some time !

UKMO from what I can see seems the more bullish with the flattening of the ridge at 144, GFS quicker bringing in the colder uppers 162 and ECM extending the cold shot out to 192 hours.

Certainly an interesting period coming up, if we can pick off a feature in that flow and it decides to fizzle out and stall moving SE across the country then could be some decent snowfall..

Looking much more positive for Scotland this morning.

UKMO / GFS / ECM

General pattern looks set, fingers crossed, will be good to see the fine tuning in the coming days..

[blitzen]

6.7c/.5.5c W. I am truly gutted with our winter this year, especially as you could practically reach out and touch the severity in Europe. It could have been so special and one for the archives! Have just watched the forecast for the week ahead and basically the south will see a slow thaw and rise in temperatures but not quite reaching our dizzy heights of 10/11c by Thursday/Friday would you believe? Forecast not committing fully yet to the behaviour of the front to our north on Saturday, but looks like NW areas could see some flakes. I am just going to take each day as it comes now, as I have lost interest and quite frankly can no longer care less. A bit disappointed in the teleconnections however as they have obviously succeeded in producing for Europe which is fair enough, but mysteriously ,continuous positive predictions by GP for height rises to to our NW have just failed to materialise.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Cheers LS, that's saved me some time !

UKMO from what I can see seems the more bullish with the flattening of the ridge at 144, GFS quicker bringing in the colder uppers 162 and ECM extending the cold shot out to 192 hours.

Certainly an interesting period coming up, if we can pick off a feature in that flow and it decides to fizzle out and stall moving SE across the country then could be some decent snowfall..

Looking much more positive for Scotland this morning.

UKMO / GFS / ECM

General pattern looks set, fingers crossed, will be good to see the fine tuning in the coming days..

UKMO doesn't actually look too bad, a bit more amplification than the others on the west side of the low with cold air digging in more quickly than the other two (sub 528hpa thicknesses).

GEM actually quite nice too:

Variations on a theme of northwesterly cold and with full cross model agreement on this we can hopefully keep this spell edging towards the mesoscale timerange and think about where the snow may fall.

[LomondSnowstorm]

6.7c/.5.5c W. I am truly gutted with our winter this year, especially as you could practically reach out and touch the severity in Europe. It could have been so special and one for the archives! Have just watched the forecast for the week ahead and basically the south will see a slow thaw and rise in temperatures but not quite reaching our dizzy heights of 10/11c by Thursday/Friday would you believe? Forecast not committing fully yet to the behaviour of the front to our north on Saturday, but looks like NW areas could see some flakes. I am just going to take each day as it comes now, as I have lost interest and quite frankly can no longer care less. A bit disappointed in the teleconnections however as they have obviously succeeded in producing for Europe which is fair enough, but mysteriously ,continuous positive predictions by GP for height rises to to our NW have just failed to materialise.

We were nearly there, just unfortunately a segment of the vortex shifted eastwards at exactly the wrong time leaving us without full retrogression. The overall northern hemispheric pattern is pretty much as predicted, we've simply been on the wrong side of the continental cold as well as now on the wrong side of the northerly cold. But it looks like this will finally change.

[Benvironment]

BEAUTIFUL day today! Just been over East Lomond and it's still, calm and warm in the sunshine. I've heard the first skylarks this year, seen a pair of short-eared owls, a flock of bullfinches......yep, very very nice

Plus I found what must surely be the only patch of snow in Fife. Depressingly, that's the deepest snow I've seen in these parts since January 2011.

Edited February 12, 2012 by Scotster

[A Winter's Tale]

Good news that we may all see a decent snow event this month to top off what has been a similar winter to 08/09 here and for others it will make the winter more than satisfactory - hopefully

Very sad news is the death of Whitney.

[A Winter's Tale]

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/306/entry-4343-the-best-of-the-highlands/

This what I've got so far in the Highland Blog.

Any suggestions of locations to find great pics of would be great!

[howham]

On the absence of any significant snow IMBY this winter... Reasons to be positive this winter!!

1. The guttering hasn't collapsed under the weight of snow (a la winters 2009/10 & 2010/11).

2. I haven't strained anything having to shovel snow on a daily basis.

3. Shrubs in garden haven't been wiped out.

4. December was still below average temp-wise!

5. February is still below average so far temp-wise!!

6. No 3 hour journeys home from work (as 24/11/10)

Any more?? (just trying to keep my spirits up!)

Edited February 12, 2012 by howham

[blitzen]

Well we haven't had the heating on at all overnight (low) this winter. Thermostat only been at half that of last year, so that can only be another positive!

[Hairy Celt]

Well we haven't had the heating on at all overnight (low) this winter. Thermostat only been at half that of last year, so that can only be another positive!

:huh: If it's colder outside, do you turn the thermostat up or down, why? Or just keep the heating on 'constant' and leave the thermostat alone? :huh:

[BleakMidwinter]

:huh: If it's colder outside, do you turn the thermostat up or down, why? Or just keep the heating on 'constant' and leave the thermostat alone? :huh:

We're in a big old house so for most of the time the thermostat's left at 17, but if the temperature outside drops to way below freezing, we need to turn up the thermostat - partly because it was put in by someone who didn't understand the way Victorian houses work, I think - standard advice is to install it in the hallway, but our hallway has the front door WITH an 8-foot vestibule and then an inner door, then some fifteen foot to the thermostat, past the radiator that cannot be turned down (because it's the one by the thermostat apparently), plus the thermostat is between the doors to the kitchen which is the warmest room in the house with cooking as well as a radiator, and the breakfast room/ dining room which has shutters as well as full-length lined curtains, so is pretty warm too.

The attic where my bedroom is, on the other hand, is two storeys above, with not a right angle in the place including the windows (one fewer window since Bawbag ripped the skylight out), with no roof insulation possible as it is plaster and lathe and then straight to the lead and zinc flat roof above, with the sloping walls being plaster directly onto the joists that the slates are nailed onto. I don't actually rely - ever - on the central heating, instead being an expert with stone pig hot water bottles, old-fashioned flannel pyjamas and woolly socks and an old-fashioned bed-making with tucked-in quilts and blankets, very heavy curtains that remain closed all winter, and even then on most nights the curtains sway in the draughts from the rattling window-frames despite being weighted in the hems with lead discs!

We do everything we can with energy-saving measures, but without some major building work, this house will always need the thermostat turned up in bitter weather!

It's stayed at 17 all winter thus far...

Edited February 12, 2012 by BleakMidwinter

[lorenzo]

Well that was a frustrating afternoon.. moments of madness and another classic Scottish sport spectacle..

GFS looking better though.. good swathe of cold uppers coming in at 168 on the edge of the reliable..

[LomondSnowstorm]

Almost identical really, though the UKMO looks better long term with some ridging of heights up the north Atlantic.

Very cold northerly follows on the GFS, with the shortwave further south than on the 6Z:

Game on.

[Cheggers]

Ours is up and down like a yoyo. Missus is the culprit for turning it up, she even has a blanket when we are in Spain, and it's 30c, so no mater how pleasant the house may feel, it is always cold in her view.

Better day today after a grey damp start. temp peaked at 7c, and can even see the Ochils again.

Are we still looking good for next weekend, or has the inevitable happened again? (Ignore, just seen the Oracle pair posts. )

Edited February 12, 2012 by Cheggers

[Hairy Celt]

Lovely sunset just finished here, one of those little fluffy multi-coloured clouds efforts a la Scottish post-Modernist with added noisy Welsh oyster catchers.

Only another 20 runs to go before we can.

[Cheggers]

We're in a big old house so for most of the time the thermostat's left at 17, but if the temperature outside drops to way below freezing, we need to turn up the thermostat - partly because it was put in by someone who didn't understand the way Victorian houses work, I think - standard advice is to install it in the hallway, but our hallway has the front door WITH an 8-foot vestibule and then an inner door, then some fifteen foot to the thermostat, past the radiator that cannot be turned down (because it's the one by the thermostat apparently), plus the thermostat is between the doors to the kitchen which is the warmest room in the house with cooking as well as a radiator, and the breakfast room/ dining room which has shutters as well as full-length lined curtains, so is pretty warm too.

The attic where my bedroom is, on the other hand, is two storeys above, with not a right angle in the place including the windows (one fewer window since Bawbag ripped the skylight out), with no roof insulation possible as it is plaster and lathe and then straight to the lead and zinc flat roof above, with the sloping walls being plaster directly onto the joists that the slates are nailed onto. I don't actually rely - ever - on the central heating, instead being an expert with stone pig hot water bottles, old-fashioned flannel pyjamas and woolly socks and an old-fashioned bed-making with tucked-in quilts and blankets, very heavy curtains that remain closed all winter, and even then on most nights the curtains sway in the draughts from the rattling window-frames despite being weighted in the hems with lead discs!

We do everything we can with energy-saving measures, but without some major building work, this house will always need the thermostat turned up in bitter weather!

It's stayed at 17 all winter thus far...

Swap for a 5 year old new build. Leaks like a sieve, but generally in good order. Survived Bawbag, just (not sure how),

[BleakMidwinter]

Swap for a 5 year old new build. Leaks like a sieve, but generally in good order. Survived Bawbag, just (not sure how),

Ah now various family friends have had new builds and they've all leaked like sieves!

We've lost the hang of building for the environment, haven't we? The old Iron Age roundhouses were custom-made for British weather, but ever since the bloody Romans, we've had a series of forms of architecture that just doesn't cope well with heat, wind or cold!

[Cheggers]

Ah now various family friends have had new builds and they've all leaked like sieves!

We've lost the hang of building for the environment, haven't we? The old Iron Age roundhouses were custom-made for British weather, but ever since the bloody Romans, we've had a series of forms of architecture that just doesn't cope well with heat, wind or cold!

Have spent more on this house than my previous two ex council houses together! Never again, would rather by old and spend knowing that it will still be standing in 200 years.

Anyway, any bets on the pub run producing snawmageddon fir us kilted folk.

[BleakMidwinter]

would rather by old and spend knowing that it will still be standing in 200 years.

During Bawbag it was practically the only thing keeping my wits from fleeing altogether, just thinking, "it's stood for 120 years, it'll carry on standing!" in a terror-stricken falsetto squeak!

[blitzen]

:huh: If it's colder outside, do you turn the thermostat up or down, why? Or just keep the heating on 'constant' and leave the thermostat alone? :huh:

Will you marry me HC? I swear to God the arguments that myself and the other half have had over a bloody thermostat, at times has bordered on divorce!! It would appear to me that leaving the boiler on constant but lower would be the sensible thing to do, as the heat eventually builds up, but I bow to greater knowledge! Like BMW I too am in 100+ year old property which doesn't benefit from modern building materials and built in insulation. We are of course insulated, double glazed etc, but an old house is a cold house. I suppose I am paying the price for refusing to live in ultra modern properties which are built so close together that you can practically share the toilet rolls! I like to sit in the garden with my coffee, unobserved, in my jammies first thing in the morning when the weather is nice without being the topic of conversation in the local Co-op queue!

I see the models are reeling us in again?

[edo]

Ah now various family friends have had new builds and they've all leaked like sieves!

We've lost the hang of building for the environment, haven't we? The old Iron Age roundhouses were custom-made for British weather, but ever since the bloody Romans, we've had a series of forms of architecture that just doesn't cope well with heat, wind or cold!

nae leaks in my newbuild....just draughty as hell with freezing floors...all laminate which great for kids but not for cozyness......oh and the water pressure constantly drops on the boiler.....shoddy build quality in general which is all too commom in many new builds ..... was out playing with kids in garden wearing a tshirt.... thats no right in february

Blitzen stop lifting up yer skirt and flashing at HC...this lack of snow got you out of control :winky:

Edited February 12, 2012 by edodfc

[LomondSnowstorm]

Have spent more on this house than my previous two ex council houses together! Never again, would rather by old and spend knowing that it will still be standing in 200 years.

Anyway, any bets on the pub run producing snawmageddon fir us kilted folk.

I think we're due a good FI, in the medium term though I suspect it'll be a similar story, but even with that it would only take the odd shortwave here or westerly tilt there to produce some snowmaggedon charts...

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Ah now various family friends have had new builds and they've all leaked like sieves!

We've lost the hang of building for the environment, haven't we? The old Iron Age roundhouses were custom-made for British weather, but ever since the bloody Romans, we've had a series of forms of architecture that just doesn't cope well with heat, wind or cold!

Having the old plaster removed, rockwool put in, boarded and replastered is not that expensive. I did the whole of the inside of the 1860's cottage we live in - bills have not changed much but the house is acutally warm and comfy as opposed to being able to see your breath and finding your coffee frozen.

[Ruzzi]

Met O long range up-date looks promising for Scotland.

UK Outlook for Friday 17 Feb 2012 to Sunday 26 Feb 2012:

A weakening band of rain will move southeastwards across the country on Friday with colder and windier conditions following on behind, with gales possible. Next weekend is likely to remain rather unsettled, with spells of rain or showers and the risk of nighttime frosts. Some sleet and snow is likely over the hills and perhaps to lower levels at times in the north, with the best of any drier and brighter intervals likely in the south. This changeable, and at times rather cold and unsettled weather, is then likely to continue throughout the rest of this forecast period, with further spells of rain and perhaps some sleet and snow, particularly in the north. An ongoing risk of overnight frost, especially during any quieter interludes.

Updated: 1123 on Sun 12 Feb 2012

UK Outlook for Monday 27 Feb 2012 to Monday 12 Mar 2012:

The last few days of February and beginning of March are likely to see changeable weather. Temperatures are probably going to be average or below average for the time of year, particularly in the southeast. Being late February/early March, this suggests that overnight frosts are still likely almost anywhere, especially during any quieter interludes. Showers and longer spells of rain are possible, with an ongoing risk of snow, mainly in the north and east. Rainfall amounts across southern and central England may end up being above average in places by the end of this period.

Updated: 1124 on Sun 12 Feb 2012

^^ Hints of an easterly/North-Easterly perhaps for the end of febuary???