Scotland Regional Discussion - Cold Spell Part 2

[NorthernRab]

To get the best photographs tomorrow you're going to have to move down south. Great snow cover and exceptionally low temperatures will make for some great snaps.

You can't polish a **** as they say. :lol:

[BleakMidwinter]

Well if we're doing Pick Your Fave FI Chart, I'll have this one from next weekend, please!

[Cheggers]

Well if we're doing Pick Your Fave FI Chart, I'll have this one from next weekend, please!

Let's just hope the rebel force do indeed take out the Kilted snow shield.

[Hairy Celt]

Utterly unmemorable day, weather-wise - low cloud clinging around the firth occasionally drizzling some extra dampness, a light chill breeze and a dim gloomy mood.

I've never got that saying about turd-polishing, always seemed one of the least likely activities, even among softies ... Eeeugh

At least England are losing the rugby, minor compensation for the crap footie earlier. edit: spoke to soon eh? In fact, totally Lettucein jinxed it...

Edited February 11, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[tiff]

I've never got that saying about turd-polishing, always seemed one of the least likely activities, even among softies ... Eeeugh

I think it comes from the fim "Christine" where the garage owner is referring to the car, and its poor condition, and the lads happiness of owning an old clunker...

[Hairy Celt]

06Z (aye, ah know...)

Would make for a nice weekend anyway.

Similar if not better on the 12z.

It's got to keep this up for the next about 25 runs... :rofl: :rofl:

Where's the FROFFLMFAO pics?

Ah:

Edited February 12, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[Cheggers]

12z certainly looking better for the Northerly, with what looks like a bit more bite.

[snowy owl]

Whats with this central belt snow shield!! Cmon give us a break please.

Not had much a chance to notice the weather today,other than it was a tad milder but generally cloudy. Feels chilly tonight.

Why is it that the temps can be colder further south in winter but never in summer are we ever warmer than the south?

[A Winter's Tale]

It does seem that a northerly is likely. We just need to see how potent it is and how long it lasts. A northerly with a bit more bite than the polar westerlies in December would do fine for us all!

Other than these topplers, I'm still looking out for any posibilities of a Greenland High as we progress through February but at this moment in time I believe that those promising background signals will evidently be wrong after all.

On another note, the Siberian High may move westwards and the any of the high pressure systems shown in the models at the moment could end up anywhere.

But any Greenland High or easterly is very unlikely unfortuantly and I just hope that this northerly will end up more than worthwhile for us all and doesn't downgrade at the last minute.

Although it seems that we've failed to get a severe cold spell that the last 3 winters have had, we only just missed out on another great cold spell for Europe so the winter 2011/2012 certainly did prove that severe cold spells are likely and this potential should be here for more winters to come.

[Benvironment]

Why is it that the temps can be colder further south in winter but never in summer are we ever warmer than the south?

Proximity to continental Europe I suppose? The synoptics that bring this kind of cold in winter would bring warm weather in summer. Either way, we're at the wrong end of the island.....or the right end, depending on your point of view ;-)

[LomondSnowstorm]

Good agreement for a cold northwesterly shot of similar intensity to what we saw in December, though perhaps with a bit more in the way of convection and less in the way of snowshield activity for the east! What happens after that is hard to say really, though I'll try and do a more detailed post tomorrow about how the rest of the month will pan out.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Proximity to continental Europe I suppose? The synoptics that bring this kind of cold in winter would bring warm weather in summer. Either way, we're at the wrong end of the island.....or the right end, depending on your point of view ;-)

I'd say continental influence is why it can be colder in the south than the north in winter, and a combination of continental influence and indeed latitude ('stronger' sun, closer to the tropics) would account for summer temperature differences. The former heavily influenced by sod's law this year obviously!

[A Winter's Tale]

Why is it that the temps can be colder further south in winter but never in summer are we ever warmer than the south?

In Autumn and Spring, often you can find that Scotland is warmer than England and on occasions the east or NW can see the warmest temperatures in the UK.

[Cheggers]

With reference to our earlier Southern visitors asking aboot our skiing.....http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-16983963

Even when its gone down South, oor's is just a drive up the road.

Edited February 11, 2012 by Cheggers

[NorthernRab]

Why is it that the temps can be colder further south in winter but never in summer are we ever warmer than the south?

Interestingly, in May it's not extremely unusual for the Highlands to be warmer than the south of England, owing to high pressure / longer days. I can remember quite a few years sunbathing out in 25'C or so when it's only 20'C or so down in London. I'm fairly sure Skye recorded the hottest May day in the Highlands at just below 30'C.

[Hairy Celt]

Interestingly, in May it's not extremely unusual for the Highlands to be warmer than the south of England, owing to high pressure / longer days. I can remember quite a few years sunbathing out in 25'C or so when it's only 20'C or so down in London. I'm fairly sure Skye recorded the hottest May day in the Highlands at just below 30'C.

Yes, I'd agree with that having experienced occasional very warm early summer spells in the Highlands. What we do miss entirely are the very hot spells of southern England - the highest I've recorded here is 28C and that was a one-off freak a few years back, whereas southern England often has a 'scorcher' spell at some point... which is fine for me if I'm on holiday but I wouldn't like it here!

Right, back to winter... is next weekend nailded yet or am i still stocking up on Madori, Gewurztraminer, Chardonnay, Ardbeg and a whole bank of snow generators?

Edit: GFS 18z seems to be playing ball still; ECM 12z looks a bit weedy and UKMO well obviously can't be dealing with the Grey Areas.

Edited February 11, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[andy100]

Hopefully we will get some snow before the winter ends.

[Cheggers]

Repeat cycle again. I hope the 00z and 06z have kept the theme going, but will wait for a reasonable update rather than wade through several pages of nothing.

[Hairy Celt]

Repeat cycle again. I hope the 00z and 06z have kept the theme going, but will wait for a reasonable update rather than wade through several pages of nothing.

I'm gonna have a Begby moment soon if this one goes tits up too.

[over_the_rainbow]

Pretty quiet on here this morning and in the MT thread too. Northerly for next weekend still showing on the charts but who knows if it will still be there come Friday. Really foggy at the mo here.

Sad news about Whitney, poor soul may she RIP.

[Northernlights]

Winter returned this morning 0c at 7.00am with a hoar frost. Currently sunny , 3.5c and frost still lying in shade. If we do get winds from a northerly direction in the next 10 days my comments about sea temperatures being almost at their lowest now will help snow prospects.

[sn0wman]

This is from johnholmes in the MT -

I commented yesterday about some folk taking rather selfish views. By all means post in here with your thoughts about your area but why not say your model view is based on how it looks for your area and as an aside say something along the lines of, 'but for those in the N/W/S/E of whichever country it looks okay'??

Looking at the models for folk, especially north of the Forth-Clyde valley then some white stuff and some frost looks probable from about T+144-216 or so, who knows just where that small low shown to track west-east may actually end up.

:smilz38:

[LomondSnowstorm]

This is from johnholmes in the MT -

I commented yesterday about some folk taking rather selfish views. By all means post in here with your thoughts about your area but why not say your model view is based on how it looks for your area and as an aside say something along the lines of, 'but for those in the N/W/S/E of whichever country it looks okay'??

Looking at the models for folk, especially north of the Forth-Clyde valley then some white stuff and some frost looks probable from about T+144-216 or so, who knows just where that small low shown to track west-east may actually end up.

:smilz38:

Good post, we are indeed once again the favourites to see cold and snowfall in the medium term(hence the MT TOORPing), though there isn't a huge margin for error before a potentially more favourable attack from the east by the month's end....

[lorenzo]

Very mild today, quite pleasant out there managed to keep the plague, lurgy, man flu, ebola at bay so couple of beers and Rugby today ! Off to catch up on the models, did see a Tweet of a fax chart from Matt Hugo last night showing a North Westerly ( but with air sourced from the Azores ) you couldn't make it up !

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'll give you examples:

Saturday morning:

Arctic sourced westerlies and an encouragingly weak looking polar vortex. Not especially cold but low dewpoints are pushing in readily:

-8C uppers around after the (what I would assume to be) cold front

A cut off low forms on Sunday, bringing mostly rain to England but with colder uppers around parts of Scotland could be in the firing line:

The track, even the formation of the low, are still up for grabs, but certain favourable trajectories i.e. southwest-northeast with a bit of a longer fetch north/northeasterly flow would result in major blizzards for the highlands as well as a decent snowfall to lower ground.

ECM is slightly different though: there is no cut off low on it and we continue with a WNWerly flow right through into the next week:

Some very intense cold around on that run though we woul be reliant on troughing and convection pushing through the central belt to get snowfall:

In summary, like early December but potentially better in the longer term.