Scotland Regional Discussion - Cold Spell Part 2

[kold weather]

Good looking northerly on this mornings runs, looks like Scotland may get in on the action very soon!!

[lorenzo]

Am going to join in the Northerly romance of the Valentines day snow.

Aberdeen ensembles display the upper cold shot well and looking through the Gefs ensembles this morning good agreement on the mid atlantic ridging with a 50:50 split on the exact orientation of the Northerly flow. The E-cart shows the area of uncertainty among the ensembles.

UKMO / ECM /GFS all with some degree of agreement now which is a good thing surely !

GFS operational and control looking good with the control run looking slightly colder. -12 uppers over the North of the country.

Op / Control

More encouraging from the ECM and also UKMO on line with this cold blast too. Great charts this morning.

ECM / UKMO

Looks like a really potent blast and should make it feel like proper winter.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Just had a look outside. Lots of sheet ice around. Looking slippy...

[lorenzo]

You'll be absolutely hating that though SS

[blitzen]

I don't give these charts any credence, but GFS at 144 is giving us this :

Typical wishboning from a northerly for Fife, but I am certainly not complaining! I think HC and SS should do well from this.

Edited February 9, 2012 by Blitzen

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

You'll be absolutely hating that though SS

[Cheggers]

Am going to join in the Northerly romance of the Valentines day snow.

Aberdeen ensembles display the upper cold shot well and looking through the Gefs ensembles this morning good agreement on the mid atlantic ridging with a 50:50 split on the exact orientation of the Northerly flow. The E-cart shows the area of uncertainty among the ensembles.

UKMO / ECM /GFS all with some degree of agreement now which is a good thing surely !

GFS operational and control looking good with the control run looking slightly colder. -12 uppers over the North of the country.

Op / Control

More encouraging from the ECM and also UKMO on line with this cold blast too. Great charts this morning.

ECM / UKMO

Looks like a really potent blast and should make it feel like proper winter.

Has HC passed oot, as no comment as yet?

Grey damp and cold, with no ice to scrap thankfully, but still only 1C

[Northernlights]

Mild morning today at 6c about six feet of mist over all the deep frozen areas next to woods, north facing dykes etc,very dreich with cloudy skies. Sheep very restless again demonstraing their high jump and long jump skills.

[Hairy Celt]

Has HC passed oot, as no comment as yet? Grey damp and cold, with no ice to scrap thankfully, but still only 1C

Cold & grey, drizzy, pish dreich start... Is something happening next week?

Oh right... :unsure: still, twice bitten etc.

[November13]

Head under Duvet for us guys till Monday I suggest. England gets a reload of snow we get rain. After Sunday things are looking up:

[Benvironment]

Yesterday finally yielded an ice day here. First one in 14 months.

It's god-awful outside just now though - wet, cold, grey......and practically every surface is coated in ice. I don't think I've ever seen proper freezing rain before. Scary!

[over_the_rainbow]

Some sexy chart action this morning :wub: , but think we need to see the MetO jump onboard with their forecasts before I get too excited.

Really wet here, very grey and miserable - but not slippy here.

[penicuikblizz]

Hopefully we get some troughs developing in the Northerly flow or it will just be Coastal showers apart from Northern Scotland, here in SE Scotland we need a more NE feed for the showers to come inland!!

[Big Innes Madori]

Europe, England & Wales Freeze while Scotland continues it's Love Affair with the guid auld Atlantic!

Even with temperatures as low as 1 Deg C and the ground frozen solid, we still endure oor predominat weather type, yes you've guessed it Rain

This is getting a bit like the Summer months where England & Wales bask while we get pi55ed oan.

Big Innes

Edited February 9, 2012 by Big Innes Madori

[BleakMidwinter]

Sheep very restless again demonstraing their high jump and long jump skills.

Excellent, not only the charts but the Weather Wethers all making promising hints at winter still having some life yet!

Steady drizzle of rain here, but it's not freezing rain, thankfully.

I've to be out most of the evening on Tuesday so I'd be very happy if it was all in lots of snow...!

[blitzen]

06z not playing ball this am tho' but no panic just yet!

[lorenzo]

06z not playing ball this am tho' but no panic just yet!

Just ignore the 06z, don't let it spoil the good fun ! It is similar to the 00z but makes more of the high with a less favourable orientation tilting over the UK and shoving the Northerly flow out to the North Sea.

Jet profiles between the runs here. You can see the core smashing the north on the 00z and slightly less amplified on this run, playing the usual GFS zonal game.

As BA illustrates in the MT the NAEFS highlights the blocked outlook well..

Edited February 9, 2012 by lorenzo

[blitzen]

GP has just posted on the MT and it sounds very positive for the future!

[November13]

Europe, England & Wales Freeze while Scotland continues it's Love Affair with the guid auld Atlantic!

Even with temperatures as low as 1 Deg C and the ground frozen solid, we still endure oor predominat weather type, yes you've guessed it Rain

This is getting a bit like the Summer months where England & Wales bask while we get pi55ed oan.

Big Innes

Do you remember your Granny used to say : "Aye it's a fine day but wee'l pay for it". Well I think we are paying for the last two good winters in Scotland. It has been a rank rotten winter and there are only 3 real weeks left. It's even raining on the mountains while it snows at sea level in England! Edited February 9, 2012 by November13

[November13]

Glencoe warmer than lowland Scotland:

Meall a' Bhuiridh at 12.00hrs

At 3600ft (1097m) on Thu 9th Feb 2012

Air Temperature: 6.5°c Wind: ENE 0 gust 0mph Wind Chill:

View:

6.5°c

hour/day/graph.

[Big Innes Madori]

Do you remember your Granny used to say : "Aye it's a fine day but wee'l pay for it". Well I think we are paying for the last two good winters in Scotland. It has been a rank rotten winter and there are only 3 real weeks left. It's even raining on the mountains while it snows at sea level in England!

Aye Nov 13

Cruel was the snow that sweeps doon low and covered the house o' Dave, in Kent

Big Innes

Edited February 9, 2012 by Big Innes Madori

[Cheggers]

Not nice out there..... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wear-16952926

[over_the_rainbow]

This must be one of the quietest regional threads this afternoon.

Had a brief look at todays charts and the 12z looks like snow potential for the very north of Scotland, but then it all fizzles away (with potential for more well into FI - but then that really is FI). Still time for things to upgrade of course and will be interesting to see this evenings ECM.

[lorenzo]

UKMO run looks a lot better than the GFS 12z. Hope the ECM goes with the UKMO solution. I think an in situe high pressure and more of the mild may push some folks on here over the edge and into the abyss !

Found a few freezing rain pics on Twitter, try getting into your car with that cemented over it...

Edited February 9, 2012 by lorenzo

[Soaring Hawk]

This must be one of the quietest regional threads this afternoon.

But by far the most polite, friendly and thoughtful !!