Scotland Regional Discussion - Cold Spell Part 2

[over_the_rainbow]

But by far the most polite, friendly and thoughtful !!

Agreed!

[Guest]

Agreed!

At least until it's April and we've still not had any depth of snow...then it might be different

Some really thick fog tonight, it has been fairly foggy recently which seems to happen here before we get a cold spell. Although that is probably just coincidence :lol:

[blitzen]

Well, I wonder what we do now? I was so looking forward to the 12zs after the really good overnights. Gosh, how quickly things change with the models. HC wasn't taken in so easly tho'! I shall cling to GP's comments of this morning and hope that there may be something for us yet.

[A Winter's Tale]

Well, I wonder what we do now? I was so looking forward to the 12zs after the really good overnights. Gosh, how quickly things change with the models. HC wasn't taken in so easly tho'! I shall cling to GP's comments of this morning and hope that there may be something for us yet.

Cling to GP's thoughts and keep watching the evolution of the models. It's not quite game over for a northerly nor a significant cold snap till it's over and as long as the signals are good then we could just keep hoping for something to happen. I believe that GP also mentioned the Siberian High moving westwards....

Gosh - isn't it foggy outside!

[howham]

Foggy, murky, drizzly bleurgh... 5.0C.

[Northernlights]

Tried the new (to me) cars foglights for the first time tonight, very impressive, both the fog and the lights.Currently 5c, calm and the walls in the steading are all sweating and running water -huge pneumonia risk for all animals both inside and out, hopefully it will clear soon.

In other words a foul November night after all the low humidity, very cold weather of earlier in the week

[Hairy Celt]

Interesting coming back and reading what's written here and comparing to what I saw in daylight...

Warnings of freezing rain on the radio this morning were a little over the top for the Highlands - minimum temp was 4C on the way over, then dry, cloud relucant to clear all day so no more photos worth bothering with. On the way home, went through repeated patches of fine drizzly stuff that sprayed the windscreen then vanished, then closer home lots of weird misty banks coming and going. Oh and a max temp of 12C - beat that, soft southern poofs!

Looks like colder next week, but by how much, when and the ultimate question: WMFS?

SS (or any other keen motorists): Kinlochewe to Contin remains one of my favourite drives, especially good in winter with no traffic around: had a serious bout of white line fever today...

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I thought the day's 12Z's were allright? Why so quiet?

Only just missing us here:

http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png

On the GFS, but not much needed andfar from warm set of ensembles:

this is no bad:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Feb 2012 to Thursday 23 Feb 2012:

Northerly winds on Tuesday mean a continuation of the recent cold weather is likely. Southern and western parts of the UK are likely to be mostly dry with some sunny spells, whilst showers are likely elsewhere. The showers are likely to turn increasingly wintry in eastern counties by early on Wednesday, with snow possible to low levels. During the second half of next week, southern parts should stay largely dry, whilst northern parts will probably be unsettled, with periods of cloudy weather and spells of rain, and snow on high ground. These more unsettled conditions will gradually spread to affect most parts during the following week, although may take some time to reach the far south. Temperatures will become generally close to average, but with a chance of overnight frosts.

Keep positive folks! If the Meto says it'll be wet and windy, that's a good sign for snow and FI is FI!

Edited February 9, 2012 by scottish skier

[Big Innes Madori]

Interesting coming back and reading what's written here and comparing to what I saw in daylight...

Warnings of freezing rain on the radio this morning were a little over the top for the Highlands - minimum temp was 4C on the way over, then dry, cloud relucant to clear all day so no more photos worth bothering with. On the way home, went through repeated patches of fine drizzly stuff that sprayed the windscreen then vanished, then closer home lots of weird misty banks coming and going. Oh and a max temp of 12C - beat that, soft southern poofs!

Looks like colder next week, but by how much, when and the ultimate question: WMFS?

SS (or any other keen motorists): Kinlochewe to Contin remains one of my favourite drives, especially good in winter with no traffic around: had a serious bout of white line fever today...

Aye HC,

And where is mine? :huh:

Big Innes

[Hairy Celt]

Aye HC,

And where is mine? :huh:

Big Innes

There's any number of answers to that, 99% of which are unsuitable for family viewing :blink: . Somewhere oop north tho I guess? :unsure:

[Big Innes Madori]

There's any number of answers to that, 99% of which are unsuitable for family viewing :blink: . Somewhere oop north tho I guess? :unsure:

Looking at the news earlier, it's gone South for the for the f'n winter

York with decent covering as we speak

Big Innes

[Big Innes Madori]

I thought the day's 12Z's were allright? Why so quiet?

Only just missing us here:

http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png

On the GFS, but not much needed andfar from warm set of ensembles:

this is no bad:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Feb 2012 to Thursday 23 Feb 2012:

Northerly winds on Tuesday mean a continuation of the recent cold weather is likely. Southern and western parts of the UK are likely to be mostly dry with some sunny spells, whilst showers are likely elsewhere. The showers are likely to turn increasingly wintry in eastern counties by early on Wednesday, with snow possible to low levels. During the second half of next week, southern parts should stay largely dry, whilst northern parts will probably be unsettled, with periods of cloudy weather and spells of rain, and snow on high ground. These more unsettled conditions will gradually spread to affect most parts during the following week, although may take some time to reach the far south. Temperatures will become generally close to average, but with a chance of overnight frosts.

Keep positive folks! If the Meto says it'll be wet and windy, that's a good sign for snow and FI is FI!

Have the bairns been drawing the Forth Bridge SS :lol:

Ah! noo that's better

That’s the Fife Cooncil wither website ensembles fir the Glen Rothis N’ Shahoorsir area.

Big Innes

Edited February 9, 2012 by Big Innes Madori

[snowy owl]

evening all, had a slippy walk this morning. Was a definite case of sheet ice hiding under a veil of water - nasty walking conditions.

However rain only lasted a wee while and then it was only a grey rather murky day.

Interesting reading GP's comments so still some hope for us cold lovers.

night all. Catch up tmrw.

[edo]

3.8 here and dry....a whole lot of nothingness except gusts (if u can call 4knots that) from the north in last hour..... Practice for next week mayb

Edited February 9, 2012 by edodfc

[A Winter's Tale]

Feb looks bad?? We are only on the 6th?? God man! Picture looking very promising for a very cold February.

February 9th, the clock keeps ticking and there's still nothing substanstial or promising picture for a very cold February in the model outlook.

Now, I'm pretty happy with this winter and I've been like that since the start where I had exceeded my goal and since then been looking for a decent cold spell. However, we need this promising February to happen becuase the east has missed out on most of the snow and deserve a great cold spell or snow event so I and I'm sure many eastern members don't want any messing about or unrealistic ramping when for some, February is the last hope to get something good out of the meteorological winter (whereas, my self I would just like to add to what has been a pretty good winter for me).

So on behalf of members of the Kilted Thread, where some members are depserate for some more than well deserved proper snow can you do the following:

Post what the the Background Signals are showing and give links

Explain what it shows, how it works and how reliable it is and it's performances in the past

The relation between these background signals and the models

Now, despite how I feel pleased about the winter, my eyes and many others are fixed on a decent cold spell, but I'm not going to be confident about anything until it's shown. So I'm at the moment going for it's not going to happen and I hope to be wrong and am going for the poorer outcome. For example, it's like when Scotland play a team ranked lower in the world rankings and to avoid disapointment you go for Scotland are going to loss.

Let's see how it pans out but I won't be impressed by any of these signals or the big ramped up build up to February until I see something substantial, within a more reliable time frame in most models with good consistency.

CSS

[Cheggers]

Evening all, just in fir Cumbernauld... I think! Pea soup @ 4C.

Anyone been brave enough fir the MT, and has the pub run been on the bevvie again?

[blitzen]

Evening all, just in fir Cumbernauld... I think! Pea soup @ 4C.

Anyone been brave enough fir the MT, and has the pub run been on the bevvie again?

Pub run well hung over I'm afraid!

[Cheggers]

Pub run well hung over I'm afraid!

So looks like am no going to get to test my new snow proof guttering we had fitted after the last 2 winters.

[Cheggers]

I think this is may be appropriate then......

Edited February 9, 2012 by Cheggers

[Hairy Celt]

I'll stick my neck out: I reckon we're still in with a chance of a snowy spell before winter's end - or even in spring. There are just too many options popping up on the runs for one of the favourable ones not to work through. Maybe.

This week's music: Caravanserai, Santana's move away from rock to something messier. Oh boy, just sustain that note, Carlos! :happy:

[Hairy Celt]

:good:freakin emoticon frenzy chaos here :drunk:

So, are we all going to Lapland next winter ? Friendly peeps, nice food (elk, reindeer), excellent beer & vodka, brilliant opportunities for some winter driving, and more snow & ice than you can dream of...

Edited February 10, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[lorenzo]

John Carpenters been round this morning and despatched a real bowl of the soupy stuff..

A quick look through the 00z from the Big 3 and the Valentines day massacre of snow has vanished from the table, the Northerly shuffled off east by a tilted UK high with a jet elongated over the top of the UK and with not enough amplification to deliver any fun..

Still this is only one run and plenty of time left for different solutions to appear.. think this might be one of those days when some folks lose patience with the models again - the majority of outcomes leaving things in a winter no man's land.

Best chart I can find this morning hiding away among the GFS Ensembles. P5. The rest of the suite deferring to the UK High.

Here's hoping...hopecasting..

[Cheggers]

:good:freakin emoticon frenzy chaos here :drunk:

So, are we all going to Lapland next winter ? Friendly peeps, nice food (elk, reindeer), excellent beer & vodka, brilliant opportunities for some winter driving, and more snow & ice than you can dream of...

Start saving as might be oor best chance fir a while.

http://www.transun.co.uk/lapland/special/happy_new_year

[Hairy Celt]

[lorenzo]

Very quiet today HC I agree !

Still onwards and upwards... away from the frustrating UK High and the Northerly which for the meanwhile has jumped into the North Sea... here are a couple of charts from the 00z runs that provide some degree of optimism.. Clear trend for the Atlantic getting the door shut in it's face and solid height rises.. These are the Ensemble runs and I know they are in FI, however they do have good agreement and demonstrate a good theme.

ECM 00z Ens

GFS 00z Ens

And - if the models are getting you down - relaxation provided by this footage of the Aurora..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16974948