South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

[AWD]

Looks like a rinse and repeat of the weekend! A spell of snow for the north east of our region, perhaps providing a temporary covering before it gets washed away as it turns back to rain! The East is going to get another decent dump though!

[Nights King]

Looks like a rinse and repeat of the weekend! A spell of snow for the north east of our region, perhaps providing a temporary covering before it gets washed away as it turns back to rain! The East is going to get another decent dump though!

Lets just hope we can get a slight upgrade on last snow event... Would be nice if it moved more west and gave an all snow event.

[Paul T]

Link to next non-event. Currently look good NE of Bristol.

Don't get to excited yet, but there is a chance of wet snow....

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/08/basis06/ukuk/prty/12021000_0806.gif

Edited February 8, 2012 by Paul T

[warmintim]

I think this is looking a potentially interesting event for some of us (I'm in West Wilthsire, so East of the region). We did ok on saturday, with a good 6 hours of snow falling, albeit light. Managed to get out for a walk around 8 pm in what had settled (about 2 cm, well in the 1-3 cm expected!) so wasn't too upset when it had gone by morning. I went out for a short run sunday morning in the woods and there was still lying snow in places, as well as very much still frozen ground. The NAE was very good in the run up, with the last prediction (i.e. 6 hours out) almost bang on. I shall certainly be following this one closely. As with last week I suspect height will help (as ever). Up at the Uni in Bath on monday morning there were some biggish patches of snow, and we still have piles where it had been dumped by people clearing roads. I always believed that when snow lingered like this it is 'waiting for more snow'. I guess you can rationalise that by the lack of melting being due to the persistence of cold air, and that will always give the potential for more snow as warmer air tries to come in. Roll on the 12z forecasts!

[Frosty_wsm]

So another rubbish marginal event on the way then, give me a big fat hp to the south east with a direct southerly feed and temps in the mid teens, even that would be better than enother snow event for the east of the country while we here see the rain! After the last 3 winters that saw lying snow here for days, this one so far has been a real let down in that respect.

[Bethany C]

Metoffice have upgrade me to sleet on Thursday night. How nice of them.

[MP-R]

So another rubbish marginal event on the way then, give me a big fat hp to the south east with a direct southerly feed and temps in the mid teens, even that would be better than enother snow event for the east of the country while we here see the rain! After the last 3 winters that saw lying snow here for days, this one so far has been a real let down in that respect.

If it helps, the east and southeast look like largely missing out on this one with only a few flurries at best. I think the West Country has a much better chance of snow than the east on this one.

[Iceberg]

yep its upto inderviduals whether you believe it or not, but the 06z brings a spell of 12 hrs or so of snow for the sw.

5-10cms most prone areas somerset, wilts, north dorset bristol etc.

[AWD]

yep its upto inderviduals whether you believe it or not, but the 06z brings a spell of 12 hrs or so of snow for the sw.

5-10cms most prone areas somerset, wilts, north dorset bristol etc.

I think it's best just to wait for the 12z output before we start getting excited etc!

The 06z output is rather dodgy at times to say the least! The NAE is far less progressive and only brings something similar to the weekend in our region!

[AWD]

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather

W COUNTRY: Prospects 4 snow anywhere frm approx Bristol E'wards into Fri AM; 5-10cm possible. Uncertainties in f'cast presently; stay tuned

Mmmmm, maybe, just maybe there could be something for the north east of the region then! Definetly an upgrade considering Ian was forecasting just rain mainly yesterday! Going to be an interesting 12z later!

[warmintim]

I think it's best just to wait for the 12z output before we start getting excited etc!

The 06z output is rather dodgy at times to say the least! The NAE is far less progressive and only brings something similar to the weekend in our region!

Not quite sure I agree with this - I accept that the 06 GFS is reputedly a bit on the 'dodgy' side at times, but as for the NAE - its only because it stops at 48 hours that we don't see the extent of any event. The 12z will be more informative, but for me it does look promising if nothing else. At least we are looking at charts 2 days out and not scaning the GFS op 240h for any signs of cold! We should all know that snow events are ALWAYS marginal in our parts, and details are rarely nailed right up to just before it happens. I would say that for Warminster, saturdays event was looking extremely poor for much of the lead in period, and it was only when we reached 24-12 hours out that it looked better, and in the event we had 6 hours of (albeit light) snow.

[warmintim]

And now the Meto has posted warnings too

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/sw_forecast_warnings.html

Fingers crossed!

[SteveB]

I think most of us in here are a little sceptical over this one.

Nice if it happens.

[AWD]

This is how things currently stand after this mornings runs:

NAE

Actually, the T48 NAE chart shows heavy snow for Bristol, Gloucs & Wiltshire, better chart than the weekends ones!

GFS

GFS not so good, has everything way further East! However these charts are not reliable enough to be taken all too seriously, so not the end of the world yet!

Cant be bothered to post no more now! IMO, the NAE had last weekends event pretty well called, so I will be following this model and the NMM model as we get closer to the potential event! The NAE does show something quite considerably better than last weekend for SOME CURRENTLY!*

(* Subject to alterations )

Not quite sure I agree with this - I accept that the 06 GFS is reputedly a bit on the 'dodgy' side at times, but as for the NAE - its only because it stops at 48 hours that we don't see the extent of any event. The 12z will be more informative, but for me it does look promising if nothing else. At least we are looking at charts 2 days out and not scaning the GFS op 240h for any signs of cold! We should all know that snow events are ALWAYS marginal in our parts, and details are rarely nailed right up to just before it happens. I would say that for Warminster, saturdays event was looking extremely poor for much of the lead in period, and it was only when we reached 24-12 hours out that it looked better, and in the event we had 6 hours of (albeit light) snow.

I agree! I must view charts before commenting on them based on comments in the model thread! Lol! NAE is a lot better than last weekend for some! Currently!

PS! Forget the last NAE chart! I do not know why that is there! ( One below )

Edited February 8, 2012 by Active Weather Dude

[warmintim]

This is how things currently stand after this mornings runs:

NAE

Actually, the T48 NAE chart shows heavy snow for Bristol, Gloucs & Wiltshire, better chart than the weekends ones!

GFS

GFS not so good, has everything way further East! However these charts are not reliable enough to be taken all too seriously, so not the end of the world yet!

Cant be bothered to post no more now! IMO, the NAE had last weekends event pretty well called, so I will be following this model and the NMM model as we get closer to the potential event! The NAE does show something quite considerably better than last weekend for SOME CURRENTLY!*

(* Subject to alterations )

I agree! I must view charts before commenting on them based on comments in the model thread! Lol! NAE is a lot better than last weekend for some! Currently!

Which was basically my point about the NAE - this looks better - at the current time! Things will change, I'm sure. Just hoping they change in the right way so that we in the SW can share some of what the east and SE have bee having since the weekend...

[AWD]

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather

W COUNTRY: Latest UKMO analysis suggests up to 10cm possible in places into Fri AM. I'll explain current thinking on @bbcpointswest

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather

@fergieweather

W COUNTRY: Much of area now covered by UKMO yellow warning 4 snow, potentially disruptive, Thurs PM/Fri:

This really has come out of nowhere

Edited February 8, 2012 by Active Weather Dude

[Paul T]

Positives:

-The NAE within 24-30hrs is actually very reliable, we are almost within that timeframe

-The ppn is progged to arrive at night

-the wind doesn't get progressively more westerly, so temps remain low

-less chance of it turning to rain

-consistent upgrade from yesterday

The negatives:

-We are on the edge again and vulnerable to slight shifts. This is a BIG negative!

-the Gfs isn't caring for snow much, yes, it tends to more "pessimistic" than the NAE, but would be nice to see it show at least sleet!

- the 850's line is circa -2, traditionally no good for snow, and more likely to be wetter stuff falling onto a cold surface...

Genuinely not getting hopefully or excited for Bristol area until possibly later tonight.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Im very unsure about this one for SW of Bristol, we are gonna need some pretty good Coldair undercut with them 850's , I would not be 100% yet for the Midlands although i'm sure somewhere will hit the right conditions ... There are a couple of factors missing from the goldon rules of pure Snow down here.

Edited February 8, 2012 by snowmadchrisuk

[sherrie]

hmmm rain again.

[Andy Bown]

Well whatever may happen tomorrow/Friday I can say for certain that today is the coldest feeling day so far this winter! Sure we had an ice day last week and

it's currently above freezing, however unlike last week there is virtually zero sunshine as well as the Easterly breeze making for a really scrammingly bitter day!

[kumquat]

I think if ECM and GFS 12z can back the cold West a bit more (more in line with UKMO and NAE) I'd hold out a bit more hope for an event. NAE certainly suggests something for the North East of the region, at least. Certainly do look better charts than for last week's snow (NAE). But we all have the experience of being on the edge in these situations and things can go either way right down to the nowcast.

[Paul T]

The reason it's marginal is that one side of the region has wind streams coming off the Atlantic (milder source) and the other off France (nice and chilly)

42hrs:

Bearin in mind France will be around -12 or more, this wind will help suppress temps. As the front moves down over us these winds are Increasingly from France, so it's actually the opposite of last weekend.

I am mearly interested, not excited....lol

Edited February 8, 2012 by Paul T

[Chris K]

Interesting indeed. Still looking too marginal for most areas of the SW though, but then again I got more than I expected last weekend even if it only lasted on the ground for one evening.

I'm still down for sleet then rain so will be hoping for a shift west over the coming day or two to at least increase the chances.

Will be nice to get some snow to areas that haven't seen any yet. (If they want it of course )

[lfcdude]

meto have me for snow sleet sleet, i expect upgrades on that meto.. Again im optimistic lol

[alex131297]

whats my risk of snow?