South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

[divadee]

Well us coast-ers will get excited and then see a rain event again lol. I'm hoping to see more than the 30 secs of snizzle we had but think I may be unlucky. Oh how I wish for dec 1st 2010 again!!!

[AWD]

To me, the NAE and the Met predicted last weeks snow/rain event very well, so I will be looking towards these two again for tomorrow! I am however, now totally confused in how to forecast snow! If it wasn't for the above two, I wouldn't even give tomorrow a second thought!

[kold weather]

Here is a general thread for this event, I've not heard much discussed about the SW even though the models dso look somewhat decent, especially for area further NE...

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72499-significant-snow-risk-9-10th-february/

[alex131297]

BBC got me with 8hours of snow turning to rain

Edited February 8, 2012 by alex131297

[festivalking]

Rain event for all those south and west of taunton me thinks

if the front tracks west though....

[farmer2555]

BBC got me with 8hours of snow turning to rain

fingers crossed 8 hrs of snow with no rain

[SteveB]

We had about six hours of snow on Saturday before it turned to rain. The snow bearly covered the ground.

[Frosty_wsm]

There's lots of talk about the snow being Bristol eastwards etc yet that nae that was posted shows areas alot further south west than Bristol being in the dark purple areas, so confusing really as that nae goes against this talk of places further east of Bristol as being the place to be to get the snow instead of plain old rain.

Edited February 8, 2012 by Smartie

[Zephyr]

12z NAE rolling in.. Looks a lot like the 06z to me.. But I'm no expert only up to +42 at the time of this post.

Sorry was the 06z woops! Said 12z in the corner!

Edited February 8, 2012 by Zephyr

[warmintim]

There's lots of talk about the snow being Bristol eastwards etc yet that nae that was posted shows areas alot further south west than Bristol being in the dark purple areas, so confusing really as that nae goes against this talk of places further east of Bristol as being the place to be to get the snow instead of plain old rain.

Time to chill out and not worry about the specific details! I've had enough experience watching models in the run up to events like this to know not to take anything at face value. So one quote says Bristol eastwards? So what - look at the charts and make your minds up. What has been fascinating of late is how often the BBC forecasts have mentioned the doubts, and the differences between GFS, ECM, MET etc. I heard one specifically metion GFGS versus ECM yesterday - I don't recall this sort of discussion before. I believe that this, in part, is due to the engagement with forecasters (Twitter and so on, and with web-sites such as this and TWO) - they are aware that some of the watching public want something more advanced than an ITV forecast... (sorry ITV).

In this case, don't fret, wait for updates (NAE, MET) and see what happens. At the end of the day its just weather!

[Frosty_wsm]

Am stil sceptical, will believe that when I see the white stuff falling from the sky.

[warmintim]

Am stil sceptical, will believe that when I see the white stuff falling from the sky.

Yourscepticism is a good starting point! I'm with you on this - I won't believe until I wake up on friday and see it snowing... Good NAE forecast though, and I suspect 1-5 cm widely and higher ground to get a bit more.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Another ice day, -1.7c was the max. Have a feeling this might back further west than last time.... Maybe.

[Wilxy]

According to Ian F tweets it seems that this event could be alot better for the bristol area than the last event at the weekend as it stands.

[lfcdude]

snow flurry here at min, friday looked good on the bbc 4 o clock forcast.

[quantock girl]

Chit chat going on about each run pushing it West. Ian F going for an explanation at 6.30. Evolving front and this is getting closer and closer to us - can't believe this one popped up out of nowhere too. As they say, 'get the cold in first then wait for the snow'.

[Mapantz]

[weathe20]

Coldest day of the winter so far 1.1 degrees max. Now dropped to 0.5.

Last weeks max was 2.2 in my location.

[Nights King]

Looking ever more interesting!

Lets hope we get the luck for a change Not convinced yet but it looks alot better.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Looking ever more interesting!

Lets hope we get the luck for a change Not convinced yet but it looks alot better.

Although 850's arn't everything , it is still bothering me there about +4 or +5 when the event starts ... We are going to need a lot of luck IMO

I have seen it Snow with 850's around 0 , but never in positive figures on low ground in the SW . There is slightly Cold air coming in behind but I would be surprised the way things stand if this is an all Snow event for anywhere West of Bristol .. Somerset , settled Snow ... I would lean against it from the 12z , but timing of the front looks to be on our side.. This is a really really hard one to call and i'd hate to be a forecaster right now

Edited February 8, 2012 by snowmadchrisuk

[jethro]

If you end up getting snow in Devon, keep an eye out for odd footprints.....

http://www.mysteriousbritain.co.uk/england/devon/other-mysteries/the-devils-footprints.html

[weathe20]

Although 850's arn't everything , it is still bothering me there about +4 or +5 when the event starts ... We are going to need a lot of luck IMO

I have seen it Snow with 850's around 0 , but never in positive figures on low ground in the SW . There is slightly Cold air coming in behind but I would be surprised the way things stand if this is an all Snow event for anywhere West of Bristol .. Somerset , settled Snow ... I would lean against it from the 12z , but timing of the front looks to be on our side.. This is a really really hard one to call and i'd hate to be a forecaster right now

This time its the other way around. The front is not coming in from the west, but from the NE travelling SW (lol i think). But it still dosent look cold enough for snow...but we will see.

[snowmadchrisuk]

This time its the other way around. The front is not coming in from the west, but from the NE travelling SW (lol i think). But it still dosent look cold enough for snow...but we will see.

I know that obviously and the reason they think it will be Snow in the first place is because of the Cold continental air coming up from France as winds will be Southerly . The old NMM has pushed the Snow risk back to the East Midlands on it's 12z run though and was a very good model during last Saturdays events so it could still end up in tears anyway .. As I said earlier very tough to call this is , Although if we do get Snow down here , it is likely to be very big flakes due to the upper air temp being so marginal ..

Edited February 8, 2012 by snowmadchrisuk

[AWD]

Very complicated set up this is! Will be interesting to see which side the ECM sides with this evening!

NAE & UKMO models all continue to be relatively good for our region! Parts of the North & East of our region could have a half decent dump of snow if these were to verify! Even South Somerset and Dorset would get something!

I presume the Met Office/Beeb/Ian Fergusson must be siding with the above as Ian has recently tweeted about snow in the West Country Friday AM and the Met Office have a warning out covering our region, with the Beeb forecasting some snow!

On the other hand, the GFS and NMM have any snow potential much further east and nothing more than a damp squib here! Although most will probably side with the Met, including me for now as I thought their forecast for last weekend was pretty much spot on, you can't ignore these models, especially the NMM! They are still very much plausible scenarios and may very much varify! Hence why I think whatever side the ECM sides with tonight could be quite influential!

All in all, definetly something to keep an eye on, and probably something that won't get resolved fully until you stick your head out the window tomorrow night! I personally, am sticking with Ian fergusson's very informative tweets, which at the moment, are quite supportive of snowfall!

[weathe20]

I know that obviously and the reason they think it will be Snow in the first place is because of the Cold continental air coming up from France as winds will be Southerly . The old NMM has pushed the Snow risk back to the East Midlands on it's 12z run though and was a very good model during last Saturdays events so it could still end up in tears anyway .. As I said earlier very tough to call this is , Although if we do get Snow down here , it is likely to be very big flakes due to the upper air temp being so marginal ..

Well hopefully we get something decent. Last Saturday was a waste of time. It funny how so much focus was on last week, today I recorded this winters coldest maximum daytime temp of 1.1. Last weeks coldest day was 2.2.

We are leaving it late for a decent cold shot. With a northerly and say -10 air over us, the 2m temps will be around 1 or 2 degrees, the sun will be stronger and snow melt will be widespread where the sun does shine.

Anyway, getting carried away. Seeing snow on the ground would be nice anyway.