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South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Very complicated set up this is! Will be interesting to see which side the ECM sides with this evening!

NAE & UKMO models all continue to be relatively good for our region! Parts of the North & East of our region could have a half decent dump of snow if these were to verify! Even South Somerset and Dorset would get something!

I presume the Met Office/Beeb/Ian Fergusson must be siding with the above as Ian has recently tweeted about snow in the West Country Friday AM and the Met Office have a warning out covering our region, with the Beeb forecasting some snow!

On the other hand, the GFS and NMM have any snow potential much further east and nothing more than a damp squib here! Although most will probably side with the Met, including me for now as I thought their forecast for last weekend was pretty much spot on, you can't ignore these models, especially the NMM! They are still very much plausible scenarios and may very much varify! Hence why I think whatever side the ECM sides with tonight could be quite influential!

All in all, definetly something to keep an eye on, and probably something that won't get resolved fully until you stick your head out the window tomorrow night! I personally, am sticking with Ian fergusson's very informative tweets, which at the moment, are quite supportive of snowfall!

Hes very good when it comes deciding whether are region has a good chance or not he even tweeted that friday am could be much snowier than last saturday :)

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AWD Maestro

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
Posted

Forgetting about tomorrow a minute, the UKMO throws us a stunning Greenie High next week, there definetly would be snow then if T144 verified! GFS 12z ain't bad either! Interesting times ahead again........

. ............. For now!!!

Wiltshireweatherwatcher Aficionado

Wiltshireweatherwatcher

Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
Posted

Forgetting about tomorrow a minute, the UKMO throws us a stunning Greenie High next week, there definetly would be snow then if T144 verified! GFS 12z ain't bad either! Interesting times ahead again........

Which doesn't make much sense with them talking about milder conditions taking hold mid month onwards, oh well.

Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

Yes that greenie high has been a common theme in the models lately, be good if it materialises and brings us polar north westerly winds as that is what brought that streamer here in Dec 2010 that dumped alot of snow.

AWD Maestro

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
Posted

Which doesn't make much sense with them talking about milder conditions taking hold mid month onwards, oh well.

To be fair, I don't think anyone knows how this month is going to pan out! There are so many conflicting signals and reports, and what with the models changing their minds every 5 seconds, the Met Office are having a tough time forecasting ahead!

The models can't even get tomorrows snow/rain agreed, and that's T24!

shedhead Rising Star

shedhead

Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER
Posted

The developing trend here is to keep edging things farther and father west, so we may well be in for a pleasant surpise during Friday and the weekend. Let's just hope we avoid any significant freezing rain tho.

Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Looks to me like its got the potential to be far better than saturdays snow event and the timing is also far better because it will start in early hours and then run up to around mid day.

Going to be another tense period of weather watching for next 48 hours :lol:

snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

Interesting .. anybody going to watch .. what time is Ian's forecast .

note however the raw NAE is not representative of the full forecast prog we'll show on tv this eve; modified version has W bias

Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Interesting .. anybody going to watch .. what time is Ian's forecast .

note however the raw NAE is not representative of the full forecast prog we'll show on tv this eve; modified version has W bias

start watching points west around 6.45pm it is normaly around 6.50 ish.

Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

Is quite amusing reading the south east regional thread, they're all wishing for a shift east so they can get another dumping, what a selfish bunch lol, let us westerners have some decent snow fall :-)

AWD Maestro

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
Posted

Very interesting! I'm glad Ian continues to being potential to us with his views/prognosis!

Would like the NMM to come on board though, that IMO is just as good as the NAE! GFS not too worried about, don't rate the PPN charts from this model!

NAE offers us best potential, so bias westwards is good news!

snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted (edited)

Is quite amusing reading the south east regional thread, they're all wishing for a shift east so they can get another dumping, what a selfish bunch lol, let us westerners have some decent snow fall :-)

hehe Well Weston is in the Moderate risk area of 5-10cm So let's hope the Metoffice are right and hope the stupid sea salt air doesn't ruin our chance of it settling , I live right on the bluddy seafront so I need something special lol.

Snow_map_Feb.jpg

Edited by snowmadchrisuk
Aceman Apprentice

Aceman

Posted
  • Location: Filton, Bristol (62m ASL 210ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, frosty / Warm but not hot with a steady breeze
  • Location: Filton, Bristol (62m ASL 210ft)
Posted

the icons on BBC show it to be similar to last sats event where it turned to rain, is there a big difference this time around?

cheers

AWD Maestro

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
Posted

the icons on BBC show it to be similar to last sats event where it turned to rain, is there a big difference this time around?

cheers

I would of thought if anything, it would be rain turning to snow, as the cold air undercuts from behind, but hey, what do I know!!

AWD Maestro

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
Posted

ECM 12z very similar to NAE, so good for the NAE to have that support! PPN stretching down from West Midlands into West Country!

Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

hehe Well Weston is in the Moderate risk area of 5-10cm So let's hope the Metoffice are right and hope the stupid sea salt air doesn't ruin our chance of it settling , I live right on the bluddy seafront so I need something special lol.

Snow_map_Feb.jpg

If the latest NAE was correct I'd almost expect that risk area to move south west?

alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted (edited)

ITV just said rain for the west, so me! and snow for east!

Edited by alex131297
Wynn D Woo Rising Star

Wynn D Woo

Posted
  • Location: Tewkesbury, 16m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Tewkesbury, 16m ASL
Posted

Another nail biter again - when can we get a region wide all snow event for a change?!

divadee Enthusiast

divadee

Posted
  • Location: Poole 47m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Hot Sun (but not at the same time!) 57m asl
  • Location: Poole 47m asl
Posted

I have a feeling that tomorrow night will be a now cast and lamp post watching for everyone on here. I have no chance in bournemouth but my brain will tell me to wake up and look out of the window all night lol.

Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted (edited)

ITV just said rain for the west, so me! and snow for east!

Itv don't tend to use most up to date model guidance! Richard anguin told me that. They are probably from this morning before 12z ect

Edited by mullender83
snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

ITV just said rain for the west, so me! and snow for east!

Alex Hunny , you really do seem to have an obsession with Rain , Even the GFS has this turning to Snow over Yeovil as it pushes back West Friday morning and that is the worse Model for us . If you don't get any Snow during Friday give me a shout and i'll come and pick you up and take you somewhere where we can build a Snowman together lol x

alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted

No im just saying, Ive seen the NAE models and the BBC forecast and it looks fantastic for somerset!

snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

No im just saying, Ive seen the NAE models and the BBC forecast and it looks fantastic for somerset!

Well put BBC1 on and lets see what Ian Fergusson has to say in about 5 mins or so , from his tweets looks like it might be a good forecast for some of us .

alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted

Well put BBC1 on and lets see what Ian Fergusson has to say in about 5 mins or so , from his tweets looks like it might be a good forecast for some of us .

Yeah we deserve it in the west! :)

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