South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

[Wilxy]

Very complicated set up this is! Will be interesting to see which side the ECM sides with this evening!

NAE & UKMO models all continue to be relatively good for our region! Parts of the North & East of our region could have a half decent dump of snow if these were to verify! Even South Somerset and Dorset would get something!

I presume the Met Office/Beeb/Ian Fergusson must be siding with the above as Ian has recently tweeted about snow in the West Country Friday AM and the Met Office have a warning out covering our region, with the Beeb forecasting some snow!

On the other hand, the GFS and NMM have any snow potential much further east and nothing more than a damp squib here! Although most will probably side with the Met, including me for now as I thought their forecast for last weekend was pretty much spot on, you can't ignore these models, especially the NMM! They are still very much plausible scenarios and may very much varify! Hence why I think whatever side the ECM sides with tonight could be quite influential!

All in all, definetly something to keep an eye on, and probably something that won't get resolved fully until you stick your head out the window tomorrow night! I personally, am sticking with Ian fergusson's very informative tweets, which at the moment, are quite supportive of snowfall!

Hes very good when it comes deciding whether are region has a good chance or not he even tweeted that friday am could be much snowier than last saturday

[AWD]

Forgetting about tomorrow a minute, the UKMO throws us a stunning Greenie High next week, there definetly would be snow then if T144 verified! GFS 12z ain't bad either! Interesting times ahead again........

. ............. For now!!!

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

Forgetting about tomorrow a minute, the UKMO throws us a stunning Greenie High next week, there definetly would be snow then if T144 verified! GFS 12z ain't bad either! Interesting times ahead again........

Which doesn't make much sense with them talking about milder conditions taking hold mid month onwards, oh well.

[Frosty_wsm]

Yes that greenie high has been a common theme in the models lately, be good if it materialises and brings us polar north westerly winds as that is what brought that streamer here in Dec 2010 that dumped alot of snow.

[AWD]

Which doesn't make much sense with them talking about milder conditions taking hold mid month onwards, oh well.

To be fair, I don't think anyone knows how this month is going to pan out! There are so many conflicting signals and reports, and what with the models changing their minds every 5 seconds, the Met Office are having a tough time forecasting ahead!

The models can't even get tomorrows snow/rain agreed, and that's T24!

[shedhead]

The developing trend here is to keep edging things farther and father west, so we may well be in for a pleasant surpise during Friday and the weekend. Let's just hope we avoid any significant freezing rain tho.

[Nights King]

Looks to me like its got the potential to be far better than saturdays snow event and the timing is also far better because it will start in early hours and then run up to around mid day.

Going to be another tense period of weather watching for next 48 hours :lol:

[snowmadchrisuk]

Interesting .. anybody going to watch .. what time is Ian's forecast .

note however the raw NAE is not representative of the full forecast prog we'll show on tv this eve; modified version has W bias

[Nights King]

Interesting .. anybody going to watch .. what time is Ian's forecast .

note however the raw NAE is not representative of the full forecast prog we'll show on tv this eve; modified version has W bias

start watching points west around 6.45pm it is normaly around 6.50 ish.

[Frosty_wsm]

Is quite amusing reading the south east regional thread, they're all wishing for a shift east so they can get another dumping, what a selfish bunch lol, let us westerners have some decent snow fall :-)

[AWD]

Very interesting! I'm glad Ian continues to being potential to us with his views/prognosis!

Would like the NMM to come on board though, that IMO is just as good as the NAE! GFS not too worried about, don't rate the PPN charts from this model!

NAE offers us best potential, so bias westwards is good news!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Is quite amusing reading the south east regional thread, they're all wishing for a shift east so they can get another dumping, what a selfish bunch lol, let us westerners have some decent snow fall :-)

hehe Well Weston is in the Moderate risk area of 5-10cm So let's hope the Metoffice are right and hope the stupid sea salt air doesn't ruin our chance of it settling , I live right on the bluddy seafront so I need something special lol.

Edited February 8, 2012 by snowmadchrisuk

[Aceman]

the icons on BBC show it to be similar to last sats event where it turned to rain, is there a big difference this time around?

cheers

[AWD]

the icons on BBC show it to be similar to last sats event where it turned to rain, is there a big difference this time around?

cheers

I would of thought if anything, it would be rain turning to snow, as the cold air undercuts from behind, but hey, what do I know!!

[AWD]

ECM 12z very similar to NAE, so good for the NAE to have that support! PPN stretching down from West Midlands into West Country!

[Nights King]

hehe Well Weston is in the Moderate risk area of 5-10cm So let's hope the Metoffice are right and hope the stupid sea salt air doesn't ruin our chance of it settling , I live right on the bluddy seafront so I need something special lol.

If the latest NAE was correct I'd almost expect that risk area to move south west?

[alex131297]

ITV just said rain for the west, so me! and snow for east!

Edited February 8, 2012 by alex131297

[Wynn D Woo]

Another nail biter again - when can we get a region wide all snow event for a change?!

[divadee]

I have a feeling that tomorrow night will be a now cast and lamp post watching for everyone on here. I have no chance in bournemouth but my brain will tell me to wake up and look out of the window all night lol.

[Nights King]

ITV just said rain for the west, so me! and snow for east!

Itv don't tend to use most up to date model guidance! Richard anguin told me that. They are probably from this morning before 12z ect

Edited February 8, 2012 by mullender83

[snowmadchrisuk]

ITV just said rain for the west, so me! and snow for east!

Alex Hunny , you really do seem to have an obsession with Rain , Even the GFS has this turning to Snow over Yeovil as it pushes back West Friday morning and that is the worse Model for us . If you don't get any Snow during Friday give me a shout and i'll come and pick you up and take you somewhere where we can build a Snowman together lol x

[alex131297]

No im just saying, Ive seen the NAE models and the BBC forecast and it looks fantastic for somerset!

[snowmadchrisuk]

No im just saying, Ive seen the NAE models and the BBC forecast and it looks fantastic for somerset!

Well put BBC1 on and lets see what Ian Fergusson has to say in about 5 mins or so , from his tweets looks like it might be a good forecast for some of us .

[Jayfromcardiff]

Will it snow in Cardiff guys? Cheers - lets hope west is best this time, we all deserve it.

[alex131297]

Well put BBC1 on and lets see what Ian Fergusson has to say in about 5 mins or so , from his tweets looks like it might be a good forecast for some of us .

Yeah we deserve it in the west!