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Wales Cymru Weather Discussion Part 5

J10

By J10
in Regional

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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted

Here is the Fax for Sat midday:

post-2595-0-23458400-1329322317_thumb.gi

A double cold front, bringing rain during the morning, clearing to showers in the afternoon.

Although uppers are below -5c, the showers will struggle to fall as snow lower down (as usual) with the projected maxima in the afternoon:

post-2595-0-81249500-1329322176_thumb.pn

More chance of wintry showers on Saturday night provided they have not died out as the ridge starts to close in.

The latest Nae charts got -5 to - 10 overnight plus the heavy pp driving down the dewpoints we will see a lot more snow than you have stated.T :rofl:
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Gavla Rookie

Gavla

Posted
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Severe disruptive snow or any other severe weather!
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
Posted

Hey guys this is our last chance then, how are things looking with the latest runs?. We looking at snow showers just on saturday ? or sunday as well with gavla streamer oppurtunities ? lol.

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Gavla Rookie

Gavla

Posted
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Severe disruptive snow or any other severe weather!
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
Posted

Pretty good at last some white stuff could have 2cms maybe more our best chance of winter.

woohoo lol 2cms that just proves how bad this winter has been. But hey im not complainin bring it on !

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J10 Veteran

J10

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GFS seems to bringing the colder air in sooner than before but also bringing the HP to us before as well. It seems certain that we will have a NW wind over the weekend with sub -5c 850Hpa, probably by quite a way, however we want the pressure to remain as low as possible into Sunday,

GEM is more promising and I would take that anyday. The majority of streamer event happen early morning e.g. 6am rather than late evening 6pm.

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Gavla Rookie

Gavla

Posted
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Severe disruptive snow or any other severe weather!
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
Posted

GFS seems to bringing the colder air in sooner than before but also bringing the HP to us before as well. It seems certain that we will have a NW wind over the weekend with sub -5c 850Hpa, probably by quite a way, however we want the pressure to remain as low as possible into Sunday,

GEM is more promising and I would take that anyday. The majority of streamer event happen early morning e.g. 6am rather than late evening 6pm.

So we mainly looking at saturday then and not as much sunday as pressure is too high?

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

All in all, pretty poop to be honest.

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
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Posted

So we mainly looking at saturday then and not as much sunday as pressure is too high?

Yes

GFS Current pressure estimates 6pm Sat 1017mb

midnight 1022mb

A lot higher that earlier runs and especially last night.

GEM midnight 1012mb

So much more showery potential with the GEM.

ECM pressure sub 1020mb until after midnight, dam around 524.

Certianly don't want pressure to rise anymore than this.

All in all, pretty poop to be honest.

OTT

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

OTT

Probably...As you might have guessed i've given up with winter!

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Gavla Rookie

Gavla

Posted
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Severe disruptive snow or any other severe weather!
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
Posted

Thanks jackone, yes winter hasnt been good but a slim chance is better than no chance in my book so i will be looking forward to saturday. Are there likely to be any warnings or we just looking at possible shower activity.

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

The latest Nae charts got -5 to - 10 overnight plus the heavy pp driving down the dewpoints we will see a lot more snow than you have stated.T :rofl:

Well if there is a covering here Sunday morning that would be a pleasant surprise.

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
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Posted

Thanks jackone, yes winter hasnt been good but a slim chance is better than no chance in my book so i will be looking forward to saturday. Are there likely to be any warnings or we just looking at possible shower activity.

Unless the models upgrade I doubt there will be warnings, if we are lucky a streamer could develop, the big thing is can the pressure stay below 1020 into Sunday, and preferably 1015mb.

I think we are due a bit of luck this winter.

If this NW fails, i will rename the thread, the Wales Cymru 2012 Spring Weather Discussion thread, then it will snow to spite me. :rofl:

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Gavla Rookie

Gavla

Posted
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Severe disruptive snow or any other severe weather!
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
Posted

Haha luck and snow in wales just dont go together this winter lol i agree with the new name for the thread if nothing comes of this next oppurtunity im crossing everything for saturday, please give us some snow!

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welshwizard Apprentice

welshwizard

Posted
  • Location: Nantymoel (asl 268m)or 879ft
  • Location: Nantymoel (asl 268m)or 879ft
Posted

morning guys what a nice morning out there today,the sun is out so i sat out the back with a nice cup ov tea,felt very nice out of any wind. birds chirping away with sun coming in and out. better when it was out lol. noticed the itv forecast didnt say anything about weekend weather so i doubt there is any worrys about snow hitting much of the uk,maybe scotland as they dont really bother to say whats happening up there.dont know what the temp was while up the back but it felt mild in the sun.warmest day for a long time not that it been that cold this winter ha ha

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DeepSnow Community Regular

DeepSnow

Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
Posted

Yesterday we got up to 10.8C, first time in double figures all month! Doubting if we will get anything this far south over the weekend, being luck doing seem to be on our side! Would be a nice suprise though! Would be better than the muppets were at the cinema last night!

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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted

Yesterday we got up to 10.8C, first time in double figures all month! Doubting if we will get anything this far south over the weekend, being luck doing seem to be on our side! Would be a nice suprise though! Would be better than the muppets were at the cinema last night!

The Muppets are awesome :D. Nowcasting IMO for this weekend :)

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welshwizard Apprentice

welshwizard

Posted
  • Location: Nantymoel (asl 268m)or 879ft
  • Location: Nantymoel (asl 268m)or 879ft
Posted

The Muppets are awesome :D. Nowcasting IMO for this weekend :)

doesnt sound good for snow anywhere in wales this weekend guys from what i been reading on here in other forums. also local radio didnt say anthing about snow,time to call it a day i think and get them shorts out. i can only see 4 small areas ov snow left behind my house now and 2 days ago there was still quite a few pockets,just shows how mild its been the last 2 days.

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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted (edited)

Still no change in the weekend outlook wintry showers Saturday and Sunday good chance of a covering of snow Saturday night lets hope that the HP over Swest Ireland stays there until Monday.FAX looks good for Saturday front pushes south with colder air behind the front with rain turning to snow as the front pushes south.Good brisk winds helping to drive the showers further south.

Edited by keithlucky
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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted

Still no change in the weekend outlook wintry showers Saturday and Sunday good chance of a covering of snow Saturday night lets hope that the HP over Swest Ireland stays there until Monday.FAX looks good for Saturday front pushes south with colder air behind the front with rain turning to snow as the front pushes south.Good brisk winds helping to drive the showers further south.

Chance of a covering for me? :D

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Gavla Rookie

Gavla

Posted
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Severe disruptive snow or any other severe weather!
  • Location: Neath/ Coventry (work)
Posted

Hmm im not so optimistic now looks a scotland and northern england affair at best high comes in too quick :( cant say that we are not used to getting let down this winter lol. Lets just look forward too spring.

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ourson Apprentice

ourson

Posted
  • Location: Caerdydd/Cardiff 10m asl :(
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and warm summers
  • Location: Caerdydd/Cardiff 10m asl :(
Posted

WOS APNIN???

With the potential for snow this weekend, I'd expect more action on the forum. Is the quietness a reflection of the unlikeliness of any snow of worth, or are the rest of them battoning down the hatches in preperation for a week of total chaos due to 0.5cm of snow?!?!?!?!

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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted (edited)

A few cms would be something followed by a Jackone streamer sunday sent the order out :help: already.Sunday morning we should see the forum busy Ourson with quotes of AMAZING i have seen a snowflake.

Edited by keithlucky
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