Wales Cymru Weather Discussion Part 5

[worldairgroup]

UKMO chart for 13:00 10th FEB is showing a radical slip going further to the west, so this might be good for us in Wales?

[keithlucky]

Yes and no ,possible some snow further west but pp will give less snow 2 to 5 cm east wales rather than 10 to 15cms.

[andymusic]

7.00pm News 24 forecast - hands up in the air - still not sure who's gonna get the worst/best of this snow event - so - all to play for - each model once again seems to be edging everything slightly further west off each run as we get nearer so you never know folks - could be very good for Wales when it finally gets here.

edit:- I'll be off out to stock up the larder tomorrow just in case the worst happens and we get stuck again! LOL

Edited February 8, 2012 by andymusic

[in the vale]

UKMO chart for 13:00 10th FEB is showing a radical slip going further to the west, so this might be good for us in Wales?

Uppers will be marginal if the UKMO verifies so it will be a close run thing. I have noticed that in the main "will it snow" thread most have dissed the UKMO, but I do wonder whether that is because, on the UKMO, the East misses the precip??

[CLH the red dragon]

Just a hunch but I reckon that the event is probably more marginal than last week. But, if it does snow, will be less marginal in terms of stick around ability.

If you follow

[Jayfromcardiff]

Uppers will be marginal if the UKMO verifies so it will be a close run thing. I have noticed that in the main "will it snow" thread most have dissed the UKMO, but I do wonder whether that is because, on the UKMO, the East misses the precip??

Yep, if the model is showing no snow for the SE, they want to get rid lmao.

[worldairgroup]

7.00pm News 24 forecast - hands up in the air - still not sure who's gonna get the worst/best of this snow event - so - all to play for - each model once again seems to be edging everything slightly further west off each run as we get nearer so you never know folks - could be very good for Wales when it finally gets here.

edit:- I'll be off out to stock up the larder tomorrow just in case the worst happens and we get stuck again! LOL

your larder must be getting full now andy after all these (non) snow events LOL

[andymusic]

your larder must be getting full now andy after all these (non) snow events LOL

well - we've only just got through all the food we bought nearly two weeks ago for our initial non-event - so time to get it stocked anyway - otherwise normally being two busy types we eat on the go alot!

Trouble is up here - if a non-event turns into an event - it's too late then - we haven't even got a walkable corner shop! - and if the push came to shove we'd have to consider (don't tell the farmer) borrowing a sheep/cow from the field next door and owing him one! (would have to be drastic mind for that!)

[worldairgroup]

well - we've only just got through all the food we bought nearly two weeks ago for our initial non-event - so time to get it stocked anyway - otherwise normally being two busy types we eat on the go alot!

Trouble is up here - if a non-event turns into an event - it's too late then - we haven't even got a walkable corner shop! - and if the push came to shove we'd have to consider (don't tell the farmer) borrowing a sheep/cow from the field next door and owing him one! (would have to be drastic mind for that!)

classic andy i know what your saying! better be safe than sorry. what i was trying to get at was all the hype past two weeks, as led many people to make some drastic decisions, pretty much which amounted to nothing! never mind i have strong feelings about next couple of days because no-one seems to agree about where is going to get hit worse, although after looking at models i think east wales are certainly favourable in my books. of course not saying that because we live in south east wales

[in the vale]

classic andy i know what your saying! better be safe than sorry. what i was trying to get at was all the hype past two weeks, as led many people to make some drastic decisions, pretty much which amounted to nothing! never mind i have strong feelings about next couple of days because no-one seems to agree about where is going to get hit worse, although after looking at models i think east wales are certainly favourable in my books. of course not saying that because we live in south east wales

We need to look beyond the next couple of days as it will be very marginal for us in the West. I posted this two days ago "the bigger pattern continues to hint at a colder flow from somewhere North. The synoptic models will continue to bounce around and raise the Blood Pressure for those that obsess over every damned run of every model, but are likely to work themselves out in a day or three. Keep the faith" and I stand by that. I think we will see some proper winter weather starting in a few days time. The UKMO is the most likely to verify IMO, and that pattern will bring the Arctic down to us by this time next week.

[welshwizard]

i have just looked at that icelandic met office and they still have the heavy stuff over wales from midnight tomor to 6 pm on fri, if that is the case and this cold does dig in we could see quite a bit ov either snow or rain.from what it shows on there wales look like they are getting the heavier stuff and midlands get the edge,i would say the spine of wales looks to be getting the heavier stuff,it may be rain sleet snow. but again i think high ground could do well out ov this. weather on tv this afternoon cannot remem if it was bbc or itv said no snow for wales tomor night or fri,but they also said last week that only newport for snow so not going to believe them. look out ov the window tomor from about midnight guys lol

Edited February 8, 2012 by welshwizard

[TonyH]

Another severe frost this evening, currently -5c. It was -6c this morning. That's 5 nights already this month below -5c, pretty good going!

Edited February 8, 2012 by TonyH

[welshwizard]

Another severe frost this evening, currently -5c. It was -6c this morning. That's 5 nights already this month below -5c, pretty good going!

that is very cold,it is was -3 at 9 oclock here, but its to cold to go out and check again ha ha

[andymusic]

Just for a laugh - the pink square/splodge on this map is right over me house/mountain LOL!!!!!!!!!

NAE still targeting the south east Wales - SORRY for you guys in the west but it might move further west also!

Edited February 8, 2012 by andymusic

[DeepSnow]

Aha i just make it into that small pink blob lol

[TonyH]

GFS digs cold air back across most of Wales Friday night, which may turn any rain to snow further west too.

Surprised how much precipitation is shown, remembering the pressure is high.

[andymusic]

middle of the day friday according to GFS

hatched area is snow

into the evening on Friday

MMMMMMMMM - from looking at the potential from the GFS 18z - it could concievably snow for about anything up to 18 hours in the eastern parts of Wales - that potentially could be alot of snow! - oh er mrs! Gulp - glad I'm going shopping tomoz then

-12 over the welsh snowfields on friday night brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

oh goody - then the gfs 18z gives us more snow on sunday too!

NAE re-calculation for friday lunchtime

Edited February 8, 2012 by andymusic

[Jayfromcardiff]

middle of the day friday according to GFS

hatched area is snow

into the evening on Friday

We're going to get burried if it snows that long!

[whiskers]

is this real or a joke im getting really excited, is it gunna snow!

[andymusic]

is this real or a joke im getting really excited, is it gunna snow!

It's SNOW joke LOL

and then the mother of all northerlies kicks in for tuesday - MORE SNOW FOR ALL OF WALES THIS TIME

[AWD]

Hey you lot across the border!

Looks like the NAE 18z is an upgrade for South and East Wales as well as South West England! I think places like Cwmbran, Newport, Magor, Pontypool, Chepstow etc could do quite well out of this!

Good luck all!

[Marcus_surfer]

I find all these charts above highly inaccurate, the last event was forecast rain and we got a period of heavy snow with slight settling...these charts always show the same and never show snow near the S Wales coast. It's down to nowcasting at the end of the day.

[alijoe]

Hey you lot across the border!

Looks like the NAE 18z is an upgrade for South and East Wales as well as South West England! I think places like Cwmbran, Newport, Magor, Pontypool, Chepstow etc could do quite well out of this!

Good luck all!

I think I love you

[Elnonio]

Far too marginal to call IMO. I don't think it's going to come to much. But I would so love to be wrong!! Last Friday of the half term - snow day would be an added bonus!

[Wales123098]

Far too marginal to call IMO. I don't think it's going to come to much. But I would so love to be wrong!! Last Friday of the half term - snow day would be an added bonus!

Indeed