Wales Cymru Weather Discussion Part 5

[judowidow]

Well im hopeing for more than we had the few times its snowed hardly enough to cover my garden........ maybe because we are are more use to having a good dumping here that the loast lot was so disappointing!

I was quite glad we didn't have much the last time as my Husband was working a 12hr night shift in Blaenavon, and he had pinched my car after he crashed his the previous week in the snow :-(

Edited February 9, 2012 by judowidow

[Gavla]

Models have certainlty upgraded for Wales today in terms of precip totals BUT...

Still this seems to be a bit of a messy set-up, and I'm still VERY concerned about the 850hpa temps, which the GFS keeps above 0C for all of Wales till 03z...which probably in this set-up leads to sleet and variations of rain...

so can we expect rain initially then turning to snow through early hours of friday? Would we still get any accumulation if ground temps drop favourably again?

[Blackjack]

Are the 850hpa temps really that bad? are we looking at a sleet/rain event below maybe 200m?

On the NAE they are just below freezing for East Wales at t12 on the 06z and get colder through to Friday

[kold weather]

More than likely Gavla but its still a flexiable situations and things can change alot even now...the NAE is colder but I'll believe the GFS/NMM over the NAE in that set-up...

[derby4life]

Could deffo do with some of the white stuff in north west Shropshire on the border ...been a complete wash out regarding snow this winter so far but looking good now (crosses everything) :-)

[KTtom]

Looks like another frustrating 36 hrs for us westerners...hopes to see a snow flake this winter firmly pinned on next weeks northerly, however even that isn't nailed on as yet according to the ECM and 06z GFS.

[jo200199]

Third time lucky please Snow God *busts into a snow dance* My children have been well dissapointed at the last two washouts. I haven't mentioned the chance of snow this time, so fingers crossed. Have a good day all x

(Current temp -1.5 C)

[Carl46Wrexham]

Freezing rain (light) here...icicles already evident.

[DeepSnow]

Just got home and its mostly clear and sunny here and temp on the rise, now 2.8C - i have a feeling that it will start as rain here atleast, unless the temp manages to drop below 1C before the precip hits... hmm lets hope for the best!

[blackrose73]

So is it correct that the 850hPa temperatures are going to fall through Friday? Otherwise it will be predominately freezing rain which is horrible! I remember New Year's Eve 1995, everywhere was a sheet of ice thanks to freezing rain. It was my Dad's 60th birthday and quite a few people had accidents on the way to my parents' house!

[KTtom]

_{Met office is underwhelming to say the least for Wales, only really the far east mentioned for snow as well as the Brecon Beacons tomorrow!}

[TonyH]

-8c last night. Spitting rain Carmarthen now.

[garibaldi]

0.3C here on the Powys/Shropshire border , very light rain at the moment. My kids are going to be well brassed off if it does'nt snow later tonight. Last Saturday we saw nothing, with both kids playing tennis outside til 2pm. 25 miles down the road the M54 , just beyond Telford , was extremely slow with 1 or 2 inches falling in a couple of hours.

[DeepSnow]

Got to say it feels warm in the sun! Temp has shot up to 4C now, hope the precip holds off until its dark and cools down!

[worldairgroup]

METO warning update 11:54am

Issued at - 09 Feb 2012, 11:54

Valid from - 09 Feb 2012, 16:00

Valid to - 10 Feb 2012, 12:00

An area of snow is expected to develop over parts of east and northeast England later on Thursday. This evening and tonight snow will then extend steadily

southwestwards into central and some southwestern parts of England, as well as the east of Wales. Whilst there is uncertainty regarding where the heaviest

and most persistent snow will fall, accumulations of 1 to 5 cm are likely with a risk of up to about 10 cm in the worst affected regions. These larger totals

are more likely across the Midlands and perhaps southeast Wales. Later in the night the snow is expected to die out across northern, eastern and much of central

England to be followed by widespread ice on untreated surfaces. The public should be aware that, as a result, there could be some disruption to travel. This warning

will be kept under review and may be updated in the light of new information.

[Dinas Powys Pictures]

Gloriously sunny here in Dinas Powys (just south of Cardiff). Not a breath of wind 2.2 degrees

[KTtom]

Despite the earlier forcasts of upgrades in the west, the met have actually moved their warning further east! No, amber warnings with the yellow warning only just clipping east wales. Their northerly for tuesdays only gives snow / wintry showers down the east coast of England.

[Stevetynant]

The way this winter has gone if I was a betting man I'd go with the Meto forecast above- refuse to get excited about this once again (but taking laptop home from work just in case)

[welshwizard]

stunning day today and sun feels warm,washed car and steam from the sun ,if these temps dont drop it wills be rain folks. but i dont think it will be here until after dark so temps should drop. going to be fun to see if this comes or not.

[Gorky101]

stunning day today and sun feels warm,washed car and steam from the sun ,if these temps dont drop it wills be rain folks. but i dont think it will be here until after dark so temps should drop. going to be fun to see if this comes or not.

850 temperatures are forcast to drop rapidly from this evening with dewpoints below zero for most of south wales = snow from about midnight onwards, may start as rain initially though!!

[andymusic]

Back from the shopping and this in me in box

Yellow Warning of Snow for Wales

Yellow Warning of Snow for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Wrexham valid from 1600 Thu 09 Feb to 1200 Fri 10 Feb

[Gorky101]

Back from the shopping and this in me in box

Yellow Warning of Snow for Wales

Yellow Warning of Snow for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Wrexham valid from 1600 Thu 09 Feb to 1200 Fri 10 Feb

Interesting looks like they anticipate the boundry between Neath and Swansea which is not on the list

[Cwmbran Eira]

Back from the shopping and this in me in box

Yellow Warning of Snow for Wales

Yellow Warning of Snow for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Wrexham valid from 1600 Thu 09 Feb to 1200 Fri 10 Feb

BBC look to have delayed the onset of snow. keeping rain a lttile longer. Also it looks a lot more patchy than earlier forecasts. I hope this is not a new trend in the wrong direction.

[pyrotech]

Nae has a very slight upgrade run on run for this overnight. Meto are blowing Hot and Cold ( sorry could not resist that pun) over this. It seems like it will move as far as Bridgend, however it looks that it will be marginal from Gwent Valleys Westwards.

Marginal as in they are not sure if sleet or snow beyond that area. If it starts as snow then it could get quite nasty with four inches of snow.

What is most surprising is that GFS has this moving into wales in a very similar way to Nae, but almost 24 hours later

[mikeocarroll]

Temp here is 2.2c currently, it rose rapidly between 9.00am (-4.0c) and midday but has fallen slightly since then. Dewpoint is just -1.9c though so it isn't going to be surface temps that scupper any chances of snow.

Upper air temps are what it's all about and the NMM overlay on the NW radar seems to show colder 850s progressing across Britain with the 0c line currently running between roughly Knighton & Swansea (i.e. the Heart of Wales train line) and the -2c line (which I think in this setup would probably mean snow if we could get under that?) currently at is furthest west in a line from Coventry to Oxford. Edit: reading back over that I should make clear that the NMM overlay is a forecast based on the most recent model run, not necessarily a representation of actual current conditions.

No precip here currently despite showing on radar, light precipitation is probably evaporating before reaching the ground due to the unusually low humidity (56%).

Huge uncertainty about the next 24 hours as we are right on the western edge of the MetO snow warning. Wouldn't like to say either way at the moment.

Edited February 9, 2012 by mikeocarroll