Wales Cymru Weather Discussion Part 5

[AWD]

I think I love you

Whats your number? We will have to go out sometime?? Lol!

Head up to the Brecons, could be good up there!

[whiskers]

im on a course tomorrow and friday in cwmbran,will i be snowed in!

[alijoe]

Whats your number? We will have to go out sometime?? Lol!

Head up to the Brecons, could be good up there!

Lol, SNOW way ;-),,.., oh, go on then .

[Wales123098]

Derek was very quick then;L

[J10]

Another severe frost this evening, currently -5c. It was -6c this morning. That's 5 nights already this month below -5c, pretty good going!

looking good for you again in the CET comp this month.

Derek was very quick then;L

Ignore the 10.35pm Welsh forecasts, they are recorded earlier in the night, the national forecasts are more up to date.

[Wales123098]

looking good for you again in the CET comp this month.

Ignore the 10.35pm Welsh forecasts, they are recorded earlier in the night, the national forecasts are more up to date.

The national one wasn't that promosing though.

[andymusic]

looking good for you again in the CET comp this month.

Ignore the 10.35pm Welsh forecasts, they are recorded earlier in the night, the national forecasts are more up to date.

Derek's already tucked up in bed with his milk and cookies LOL!

[J10]

middle of the day friday according to GFS

hatched area is snow

into the evening on Friday

MMMMMMMMM - from looking at the potential from the GFS 18z - it could concievably snow for about anything up to 18 hours in the eastern parts of Wales - that potentially could be alot of snow! - oh er mrs! Gulp - glad I'm going shopping tomoz then

-12 over the welsh snowfields on friday night brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

oh goody - then the gfs 18z gives us more snow on sunday too!

NAE re-calculation for friday lunchtime

The hathced area means snow risk rather than snow, and this is way these charts overestimate snow.

Saying that looking at dewpoints and temp profiles, the 18hz is colder than the 12Hz all the way. Dewpoints really drop off from the east later in the day, subzero for most of Wales by midnight Friday night.

[andymusic]

The national one wasn't that promosing though.

think the beeb base it on earlier info

[Jackfrost]

This is looking very marginal. The front is going to be bisecting the country from the north and risks cutting off the cold flow as it passes down over us. I can see the Rhondda or Upper Bridgend (ie, Maesteg) areas being the westward extent of any snowfall, possible even further East.

The Midlands and far Eastern Wales, as far west as Newport/Cwmbran looking like the safest bet.

Edited February 8, 2012 by jackfrost

[J10]

The national one wasn't that promosing though.

Just saying it is more upto date doesn't mean it's what we want to hear.

Just to prove the point about dewpoint looks at the following link for the dewpoints rapidly dropping from the east on Friday, this didn't happen on the previous run.

http://www.meteociel...de-rosee/3h.htm

[alijoe]

ITV wales only mentioned rain and sleet just now???? oh, I am going to bank on nothing and then won't get dissappointed.

[worldairgroup]

not that its of any use to us lot, but met office have issued amber warning now for North west england of freezing rain. this is in addition to their snow alert. my point being METO are keeping a beady eye on things. issuing this within the last hour or so.

Issued at - 08 Feb 2012, 22:26

Valid from - 09 Feb 2012, 05:00

Valid to - 09 Feb 2012, 12:00

Rain will move southeastwards from Scotland into England early on Thursday. This will fall onto very cold surfaces, such as roads,

and will freeze instantly, forming a layer of ice. The public should be prepared for extremely hazardous driving conditions, particularly

on routes over high ground and where roads are untreated.

[TheWeatherGirl]

Hey you lot across the border!

Looks like the NAE 18z is an upgrade for South and East Wales as well as South West England! I think places like Cwmbran, Newport, Magor, Pontypool, Chepstow etc could do quite well out of this!

Good luck all!

ooh hows about caerphilly? otherwise im just going to have to go and stay at my mum's in newport for the weekend lol...

[Jackfrost]

Caerphilly is definitely in the medium pink Weathergirl, northern parts of the country are in the dark pink blob.

[Penderyn]

Tymheredd / Temperature: -8.4C :smilz38:

[worldairgroup]

With very due credit to Electricsnowstorm in the significant snow forum see what he had to write, this surely guys should make us feel a little happier !

(Risk percentage is calculated by GFS indicating snow on its weather type chart and NAE showing precipitation as snow-pink, on its

ppn charts - models used for data - days 1/2-NAE and GFS/ days 3-7 GFS)

**Snow Watch - 7 Day outlook** - 9th February(data-18z-wednesday-8th feb)

Day 1-Thursday-risk-

90%-Eastern areas-Northeast England-The East and West Midlands-Yorkshire and Humber-East Anglia-light snow then moderate snow

90%-The more eastern and northeastern areas of Southwest England-light snow-maybe moderate snow

45%-Northwest England-light snow-risk of moderate snow - 45%-rain/freezing rain

90%-Central Southern/and the IOW and Southeastern England-light snow.

90%-parts of Wales more likely East Wales-light/moderate snow

(SNOW EVENT)

-

Day 2 - Friday - risk-

80%-Eastern, Central and South Wales-moderate snow/40%-North Wales-light snow

80%-East and West Midlands-Southwest England especially areas of northeastern and eastern Southwest England-moderate snow

40%-Northwest England-light snow or moderate snow

80%-Central Southern England-The IOW-moderate snow

40%The Southeast and East Anglia(mostly towards west for SE/EA) and maybe areas of Northeast England-light snow

40%-Southern Scotland-light maybe moderate snow.

(SNOW EVENT)

-

(IN AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW RISK THERE IS THE SAME RISK THIS BECOMING HEAVY SNOW/HEAVY FALLS OF SNOW)

-

(SOME CHANGES MAY OCCUR NEARER THE EVENT PLEASE KEEP TRACK OF WARNINGS/FORECASTS)

-

Day 3 - Saturday - risk - 35%- Northwest England-Southern and Central Scotland-some areas of Southwest England-some areas of Wales-light or moderate snow.

-

Day 4 -Sunday - risk - 30%-Northwest and Northeast England-some areas of Wales-Midlands-maybe Southwest England-lightsnow

-

Day 5 - Monday- risk - 25%- Southeast England-early-Scotland and parts of Northeast England late-light snow/light snow showers.

-

Day 6 - Tuesday -risk - 20% - widespread wintry showers and snow showers.

-

Day 7 - Wednesday -risk - 10% - widespread wintry showers and snow showers.

[Jackfrost]

Quick heads up.

Big upgrade this morning judging by the BBC TV forecast. Continuous snow from 9 tonight through to around 15:00 tomorrow without reverting back to rain, SE Wales singled out as the region being likely to see more than the 5-10cm forecast. Temperatures dropping down to -10C in places tomorrow night, again Wales singled out as being a likely place for this.

Edited February 9, 2012 by jackfrost

[keithlucky]

Yes looking good for east Wales snow event tonight even possible the snow in eastern Wales moving westwards to give a covering in central Wales aswell .For the rest of Wales excellent snow prospects from Monday onwards a unstable airflow for all of Wales with 3 days of snow showers ,a perfect set up for streamers to set up,very unual to have such a long spell of northlies to last. We all in Wales should have a good covering of snow by the middle of next week.

Edited February 9, 2012 by keithlucky

[scoggs]

Yep, Looking good for East/South East Wales. Even for us in Barry. Hope it doesn't come earlier as I am travelling to and from Bristol today.

Fingers crossed we get a good snowfall tonight.

[DeepSnow]

Well I just hope that conditions are right enough and im far enough east for it to be an all snow event here, first one of the winter! This could be an interesting night if things stay as they are or upgrade! Fingers crossed

[welshwizard]

Well I just hope that conditions are right enough and im far enough east for it to be an all snow event here, first one of the winter! This could be an interesting night if things stay as they are or upgrade! Fingers crossed

i think you be ok this time,and i think this could ruin my weekend. looks for sure that stuff is going to come down and i think the stuff will be white ha ha.

[Snowmadsam]

big upgrade for you easterners

off to school talk this evening

enjoy your day

Sam

[DeepSnow]

What time do the meto warnings update? Anyone think an Amber warning might be issued for some parts later?

[welshwizard]

i think it already on amber isnt it? Andy worte that last night scroll back through and have look at his posts,he has emails when there are warnings in place for wales and i think he had a email.