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London & The South East Regional Discussion - Part 11

kold weather
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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Thursday and Friday mainly dry, cold with patchy freezing fog. Late Friday night chance of sleet or snow arriving, leading to widespread icy stretches. Saturday outbreaks of sleet or rain.

Updated: 0259 on Tue 7 Feb 2012

Not too shabby for the end of the Week from the Updated Meto Forecast

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Southender Seasoned

Southender

Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
Posted

Has nobody looked at the far reaches of FI on the very poor GFS 06z runs yet? :shok::cold:

I feel a RAMP of EPIC proportions would be coming this way if it happened to verify. ;)

SM not about?

Regards

gottolovethisweather

Yes. As I put in the model thread...

Just for a laugh - Day 10. UK Shutdown!

gfs-0-240.png?6

gfs-1-240.png?6

gfs-2-252.png?6

Guest QuantumSnow

Guest QuantumSnow

Posted
Posted

Has nobody looked at the far reaches of FI on the very poor GFS 06z runs yet? :shok::cold:

I feel a RAMP of EPIC proportions would be coming this way if it happened to verify. ;)

SM not about?

Regards

gottolovethisweather

Let's see.. so that's the far reaches of FI.. the GFS.. and 06z, all in the same sentence...

Er no! ;)

blackprince Enthusiast

blackprince

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
Posted

interesting the cold air seems to be flooding our way again bright blue sky now after a dull and cloudy start. Fun and games on the model thread less knives out this morning.

Must admit up until the snow i was watching the model thread all the time but once we started getting to now forecasting I switched back the the regional forum....It can get so stupid on there with all the points scoring.The mods try and keep it in check but its just not fun to read where as on here there is a great sense of humour.Plus you have some great poster's on here like Coast TEITS and of course Rampkin (as I call him).

Can't wait till the next big event!!!

kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
  • Author
Posted

Yes the 06z GFS is very good, though a messy rain-snow event down here with the snow arriving during the day, so probably little if any settling in our area, its more of a Midlands north event with transient snowfall for us. Still its a cold run with lots of snow oppertunities.

Jimmyh Rising Star

Jimmyh

Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
Posted

i think there will be a massive sting in the tail something like what shrimper noticed at day 10 eek that would be absolutely epic. please that my dad's funeral will pass off without any major implications on thursday few

Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

For me at Watford the morning has developed beautifully - Clear skies - air has dried out well with plus -4C dew points - much better than the 'orrible murky stuff we have had over the last couple of days.

:)

Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Er no! ;)

:p You shouldn't be dismissing Fantasy Island just yet, the models were showing this past weekends possibilities (on and off) from quite a while back. Gotta love those Fantasy Island models......

Tattoo-Fantasy-Island_l%5B1%5D.jpg

Plus you have some great poster's on here like Coast TEITS and of course Rampkin (as I call him).

c062.gif

tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted (edited)

coast are those light showers over germany coming our way ,watched carol k this morning she was saying any thing -15 or less to-night

http://www.rain-alarm.com/?from=chrome

Edited by tinybill
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Hmmm not sure. They've got a long way to come and they are coming from a cold place. Wind is generally in the right direction, just not sure if this one is for us:

post-6667-0-45628300-1328614756_thumb.jp

blackprince Enthusiast

blackprince

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
Posted

:p You shouldn't be dismissing Fantasy Island just yet, the models were showing this past weekends possibilities (on and off) from quite a while back. Gotta love those Fantasy Island models......

Tattoo-Fantasy-Island_l%5B1%5D.jpg

c062.gif

Is that a warm front or a cold front :acute:
Guest QuantumSnow

Guest QuantumSnow

Posted
Posted

:p You shouldn't be dismissing Fantasy Island just yet, the models were showing this past weekends possibilities (on and off) from quite a while back. Gotta love those Fantasy Island models......

Tattoo-Fantasy-Island_l%5B1%5D.jpg

c062.gif

Of course Coast, fantasy island is a wonderful place (apparently) but like you say, we never get there.. or do we? :)

Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

we never get there.. or do we? :)

The journey's long, but the destination is wonderful. Enjoy the ride and take lots of photos along the way! :rofl:

JamesC Rookie

JamesC

Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
Posted (edited)

I have a question, which if anyone could answer I'd be most grateful....

What conditions do we need for a thames streamer?

With the amount of easterlies and cold uppers recently I'm surprised that none have kicked off, what is the reason for this? The pressure to high? No disturbances? Bad lapse rates etc.?

Thanks

Edited by JamesC
Guest QuantumSnow

Guest QuantumSnow

Posted
Posted

The journey's long, but the destination is wonderful. Enjoy the ride and take lots of photos along the way! :rofl:

:rofl:

simon71977 Newbie

simon71977

Posted
  • Location: Live in Burnham on Crouch, Work in Southend
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Live in Burnham on Crouch, Work in Southend
Posted

The Met Office has updated their weather warnings - maybe some snow this evening??? PLEASE??!?!?!??!?

john mac Aficionado

john mac

Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
Posted

Temps going down 0.2c

dewpoint -4c

wind chill -2c

New Flesh 4 Old Newbie

New Flesh 4 Old

Posted
  • Location: Galleywood, Chelmsford - 43m ASL
  • Location: Galleywood, Chelmsford - 43m ASL
Posted

The Met Office has updated their weather warnings - maybe some snow this evening??? PLEASE??!?!?!??!?

The warnings are for ICE. Sorry....

Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

I have a question, which if anyone could answer I'd be most grateful....

What conditions do we need for a thames streamer?

With the amount of easterlies and cold uppers recently I'm surprised that none have kicked off, what is the reason for this? The pressure to high? No disturbances? Bad lapse rates etc.?

Thanks

For a Thames Streamer you ideally want quite a strong Upper Flow of ENE Winds, SST Of 7-8c and a Cold Pool of -10c or Lower. I tend to find -12 to -15 gets some Thundersnow mixed into the equation in the stronger convection. Disturbances help a lot as do some decent Cape Levels for effectively what are Thundery Showers to form. Obviously temperatures and dewpoints need to be spot on as well with a Temp range of -1c to 1c (Just past experience) and Dewpoints between -1c and -4c. This tends to take away the risk of the air being too dry through the layers and big Whiteout conditions prevail with fat fluffy flakes and not Snow Grains!

Discombobulation Man Newbie

Discombobulation Man

Posted
  • Location: East London, Leytonstone
  • Location: East London, Leytonstone
Posted · Hidden by Discombobulation Man, February 7, 2012 - Paul answered alot better than me ;)
Hidden by Discombobulation Man, February 7, 2012 - Paul answered alot better than me ;)

I have a question, which if anyone could answer I'd be most grateful....

What conditions do we need for a thames streamer?

With the amount of easterlies and cold uppers recently I'm surprised that none have kicked off, what is the reason for this? The pressure to high? No disturbances? Bad lapse rates etc.?

Thanks

Broadly speaking it's because the flow is too slack, the cold air is 'creeping' over us and is mainly stagnant, the High Pressure certainly won't help but a brisk E/ENE flow over a North Sea with a 16c Thermal Gradient (-10c uppers + 6c SST) will normally be enough for convection even in High Pressure. There are other factors but simply we cant benefit from the potential steep lapse rates without a driving flow to create the instability.

simon71977 Newbie

simon71977

Posted
  • Location: Live in Burnham on Crouch, Work in Southend
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Live in Burnham on Crouch, Work in Southend
Posted

The warnings are for ICE. Sorry....

It does say something about slight snow fall??? Or am I just being hopeful?

Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

It does say something about slight snow fall??? Or am I just being hopeful?

I am reading it that they expect a Kent Clipper, have not looked at Charts for today but would expect winds to be just a tad too far North of East later and overnight if the Met are saying this. Hope I am wrong and it is an ENEasterly!

As temperatures drop sharply this afternoon and this evening ice will form on untreated roads and pavements, specifically in those areas that still have a partially melted cover of snow. The public should be aware that there could as a result be some disruption to travel. In the far southeast of England an additional slight snowfall, up to about 1cm, is likely locally during the night.

Here in a Very Sunny Leigh on Sea

Temp : 0.6c

Dewp : -4.3c

Wind 7mph from the..........................ENE :clapping:

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