London & The South East Regional Discussion - Part 11

[Paul Sherman]

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Thursday and Friday mainly dry, cold with patchy freezing fog. Late Friday night chance of sleet or snow arriving, leading to widespread icy stretches. Saturday outbreaks of sleet or rain.

Updated: 0259 on Tue 7 Feb 2012

Not too shabby for the end of the Week from the Updated Meto Forecast

[Southender]

Has nobody looked at the far reaches of FI on the very poor GFS 06z runs yet?

I feel a RAMP of EPIC proportions would be coming this way if it happened to verify.

SM not about?

Regards

gottolovethisweather

Yes. As I put in the model thread...

Just for a laugh - Day 10. UK Shutdown!

[Guest QuantumSnow]

Has nobody looked at the far reaches of FI on the very poor GFS 06z runs yet?

I feel a RAMP of EPIC proportions would be coming this way if it happened to verify.

SM not about?

Regards

gottolovethisweather

Let's see.. so that's the far reaches of FI.. the GFS.. and 06z, all in the same sentence...

Er no!

[blackprince]

interesting the cold air seems to be flooding our way again bright blue sky now after a dull and cloudy start. Fun and games on the model thread less knives out this morning.

Must admit up until the snow i was watching the model thread all the time but once we started getting to now forecasting I switched back the the regional forum....It can get so stupid on there with all the points scoring.The mods try and keep it in check but its just not fun to read where as on here there is a great sense of humour.Plus you have some great poster's on here like Coast TEITS and of course Rampkin (as I call him).

Can't wait till the next big event!!!

[kold weather]

Yes the 06z GFS is very good, though a messy rain-snow event down here with the snow arriving during the day, so probably little if any settling in our area, its more of a Midlands north event with transient snowfall for us. Still its a cold run with lots of snow oppertunities.

[Jimmyh]

i think there will be a massive sting in the tail something like what shrimper noticed at day 10 eek that would be absolutely epic. please that my dad's funeral will pass off without any major implications on thursday few

[Guest]

For me at Watford the morning has developed beautifully - Clear skies - air has dried out well with plus -4C dew points - much better than the 'orrible murky stuff we have had over the last couple of days.

[SMU]

Im always lurking here-

but not around the 06z... At least its a cold load of rubbish this run!

S

[Coast]

Er no!

You shouldn't be dismissing Fantasy Island just yet, the models were showing this past weekends possibilities (on and off) from quite a while back. Gotta love those Fantasy Island models......

Plus you have some great poster's on here like Coast TEITS and of course Rampkin (as I call him).

[tinybill]

coast are those light showers over germany coming our way ,watched carol k this morning she was saying any thing -15 or less to-night

http://www.rain-alarm.com/?from=chrome

Edited February 7, 2012 by tinybill

[Coast]

Hmmm not sure. They've got a long way to come and they are coming from a cold place. Wind is generally in the right direction, just not sure if this one is for us:

[blackprince]

You shouldn't be dismissing Fantasy Island just yet, the models were showing this past weekends possibilities (on and off) from quite a while back. Gotta love those Fantasy Island models......

Is that a warm front or a cold front

[Guest QuantumSnow]

You shouldn't be dismissing Fantasy Island just yet, the models were showing this past weekends possibilities (on and off) from quite a while back. Gotta love those Fantasy Island models......

Of course Coast, fantasy island is a wonderful place (apparently) but like you say, we never get there.. or do we?

[Coast]

we never get there.. or do we?

The journey's long, but the destination is wonderful. Enjoy the ride and take lots of photos along the way!

[JamesC]

I have a question, which if anyone could answer I'd be most grateful....

What conditions do we need for a thames streamer?

With the amount of easterlies and cold uppers recently I'm surprised that none have kicked off, what is the reason for this? The pressure to high? No disturbances? Bad lapse rates etc.?

Thanks

Edited February 7, 2012 by JamesC

[Guest QuantumSnow]

The journey's long, but the destination is wonderful. Enjoy the ride and take lots of photos along the way!

[simon71977]

The Met Office has updated their weather warnings - maybe some snow this evening??? PLEASE??!?!?!??!?

[john mac]

Temps going down 0.2c

dewpoint -4c

wind chill -2c

[New Flesh 4 Old]

The Met Office has updated their weather warnings - maybe some snow this evening??? PLEASE??!?!?!??!?

The warnings are for ICE. Sorry....

[Paul Sherman]

I have a question, which if anyone could answer I'd be most grateful....

What conditions do we need for a thames streamer?

With the amount of easterlies and cold uppers recently I'm surprised that none have kicked off, what is the reason for this? The pressure to high? No disturbances? Bad lapse rates etc.?

Thanks

For a Thames Streamer you ideally want quite a strong Upper Flow of ENE Winds, SST Of 7-8c and a Cold Pool of -10c or Lower. I tend to find -12 to -15 gets some Thundersnow mixed into the equation in the stronger convection. Disturbances help a lot as do some decent Cape Levels for effectively what are Thundery Showers to form. Obviously temperatures and dewpoints need to be spot on as well with a Temp range of -1c to 1c (Just past experience) and Dewpoints between -1c and -4c. This tends to take away the risk of the air being too dry through the layers and big Whiteout conditions prevail with fat fluffy flakes and not Snow Grains!

[Discombobulation Man]

I have a question, which if anyone could answer I'd be most grateful....

What conditions do we need for a thames streamer?

With the amount of easterlies and cold uppers recently I'm surprised that none have kicked off, what is the reason for this? The pressure to high? No disturbances? Bad lapse rates etc.?

Thanks

Broadly speaking it's because the flow is too slack, the cold air is 'creeping' over us and is mainly stagnant, the High Pressure certainly won't help but a brisk E/ENE flow over a North Sea with a 16c Thermal Gradient (-10c uppers + 6c SST) will normally be enough for convection even in High Pressure. There are other factors but simply we cant benefit from the potential steep lapse rates without a driving flow to create the instability.

[simon71977]

The warnings are for ICE. Sorry....

It does say something about slight snow fall??? Or am I just being hopeful?

[SMU]

Any regional temp checks out there

Im going for 1.4c here -3c DP

S

[warrenb]

0.4C here with a dew point of -3.7C

[Paul Sherman]

It does say something about slight snow fall??? Or am I just being hopeful?

I am reading it that they expect a Kent Clipper, have not looked at Charts for today but would expect winds to be just a tad too far North of East later and overnight if the Met are saying this. Hope I am wrong and it is an ENEasterly!

As temperatures drop sharply this afternoon and this evening ice will form on untreated roads and pavements, specifically in those areas that still have a partially melted cover of snow. The public should be aware that there could as a result be some disruption to travel. In the far southeast of England an additional slight snowfall, up to about 1cm, is likely locally during the night.

Here in a Very Sunny Leigh on Sea

Temp : 0.6c

Dewp : -4.3c

Wind 7mph from the..........................ENE