The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 5

[I remember Atlantic 252]

http://www.politicsh...ruary_2012.html

Daily Express going for Snowmageddon: *Yawn*

all absolute scatter cushion! misleading people with massive exaggerations

[Bishop Brennan]

Hmmm, the BBC News24 forecast was certainly very bullish re the snow prospects for much of the Midlands. All seems very marginal to me; 50% chance of snow, 50% chance of "cold rain" methinks.

In situations like this it always pays to keep expectations low in my experience.

Bish

[kold weather]

NAE much further west...IMO too far west actually...that model has a west bias anyway so that probably is playing its part...think the 12z run was about right.

Good run for SW Midlands in particular, with heavy snow likely. The 18z has toned down amounts a little, generally 5-10cms looks about right if this run came off.

[PolarWarsaw]

Another western movement according to IAN F on twitter. Looks like im going to miss out now. Come back further east :rofl:

[Brum Watcher]

anyone get them NAE charts on here. i aint got clue how to do it myself.

[kold weather]

:lol:

It actually does, Jan 2010 is a classic example of that, it ended up nearly 100 miles further east. Feb 2007 it was too far west intially, Jan 2007 was perhaps the best example I've ever seen, forecasted snow down W.Midlands through Wales...ended up over the EA/SE instead. Ironically the GFS did a decent job with that one. I've got plenty of other examples of this.

Anyway I'm planning on being on my way to Paris by that time, so I'm VERY happy that there is a trend westwards.

Anyway as I said mate, your in a good position, think your in for a solid 7-10cms to be honest mate.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

need a shift east over the next few model runs

[PolarWarsaw]

Is anyone going to be joining me to see the NAE for the 0z?

[conor123]

It actually does, Jan 2010 is a classic example of that, it ended up nearly 100 miles further east. Feb 2007 it was too far west intially, Jan 2007 was perhaps the best example I've ever seen, forecasted snow down W.Midlands through Wales...ended up over the EA/SE instead. Ironically the GFS did a decent job with that one. I've got plenty of other examples of this.

Anyway I'm planning on being on my way to Paris by that time, so I'm VERY happy that there is a trend westwards.

Anyway as I said mate, your in a good position, think your in for a solid 7-10cms to be honest mate.

What's it looking like here as were quite far north in Telford compared to the rest of the Midlands?

GFS further west at 24hrs with snow closing in.

[JinxTheCat]

Hi all,

Does anyone have an opinion on whether they'll be disruption at Birmingham Airport?? Cheers :S

[kold weather]

18z GFS looks a touch further west, would be a good bit of back-up for the NAE if the GFS does trend further west as well. Currently the models are backing up generally the Met Office's earlier snowfall estimate.

I do hope people don't think I'm biased, very far from it...if its looking like it wil lbe a further west, I'll be posting with the same level of happiness as I would if I was getting the snow, veterans would be well aware of this.

[klippieboo]

So am I.

:lol:

and me

[Matty23]

Me to, ludloe south shropshire looking good hopefully

[kold weather]

DEFFO a westwards trend on the 18z GFS, looks a little further north than the NAE but generally same area.

Less snow for the east, probably more for the west on this run and the 0c isotherm looks a little further west as well, so all good trends for the west in particular, my gut is the 12z was the wrong side of marginal, whilst the 18z may JUST be the right side of marginal this run.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

what about Stafford gonna be too far north and east

[MKN]

So am I.

:lol:

lol if it trends further west tomorrow like it has today england wont see anything. the differences at +30 is about 100miles compared to the 12z alone. Its falling more inline with the ukmo which has precip for wales only

[kold weather]

Temp profile is much better on the 18z run, probably all snow this run compared to a slightly messy mix. IMO bullseye would be the SW Midlands, maybe 10-15cms based on the 18z GFS...

Still time for changes though but good to see the GFS falling inline with the NAE and the UKMO set of models.

[#windysnow#]

I am about 25 miles northeast of Birmingham, but work in the centre of birmingham how do the people in the know think I will be affected tomorrow?

[Bishop Brennan]

all absolute scatter cushion! misleading people with massive exaggerations

A spoof Express frontpage I knocked up for another forum, a couple of years ago........

Bish

[Costa Del Fal]

Very good GFS 18z, moving West yet again. NAE 18z also further West but if no more changes occur then the West Midlands looks very good for snow now imo.

West Midlands, South Staffs, Worcestershire looking particularly healthy from this given the current charts.

Edited February 8, 2012 by Blizzards

[MKN]

I am about 25 miles northeast of Birmingham, but work in the centre of birmingham how do the people in the know think I will be affected tomorrow?

see teits post in the significant snow risk thread for the next two days, sums things up. The NAE is miles out compared to the radar at just +3 so at +24 who knows what will happen

[saintkip]

Temp profile is much better on the 18z run, probably all snow this run compared to a slightly messy mix. IMO bullseye would be the SW Midlands, maybe 10-15cms based on the 18z GFS...

Still time for changes though but good to see the GFS falling inline with the NAE and the UKMO set of models.

Could you post the latest charts up?? from 24 hours to 36 would be lovely thanks

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Very good GFS 18z, moving West yet again. NAE 18z also further West but if no more changes occur then the West Midlands looks very good for snow now imo.

yeah, the southern areas, classic Ian Brown setup, 'no snow for Staffs' too far north

[Costa Del Fal]

yeah, the southern areas, classic Ian Brown setup, 'no snow for Staffs' too far north

You will still certainly get something. My Hotspot for snow right now is anywhere inside Birmingham to Wolverhampton to Hereford across to Worcester and back roughly.

Still, could this go all too far West? If it does this just proves the strength of this cold air!

Edited February 8, 2012 by Blizzards

[Bishop Brennan]

yeah, the southern areas, classic Ian Brown setup, 'no snow for Staffs' too far north

Whatever happened to Ian Brown? I haven't seen him post on here for yonks?

Bish