The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 5

[kmanmx]

Heaviest precip is way to far west for me, good for alot of people here though. Even Birmingham is on the periphery of the most intense stuff. If I were to hazard a guess, 2 or 3cm for Leicester, 7 or 8 for Birmingham, places west and SW or Birmingham 10 to 20cm.

This is assuming it is actually snow, NMM has it very marginal.. rain for all west midlands.

[kold weather]

NMM (which did a much better job than the NAE on precip type on Saturday) forecasting a mess for W.Midlands with rain to start with changing to snow as the night goes on...quite pluaseable if the 850hpa temps are a smidge milder, though I think its probably overdoing things on its 18z run.

Still it has a stronger system then the other models and a stronger WILL have a slightly more intense milder zone with it. Great for C.Midlands however and better for the E.Midlands as well...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hmmmmm undecided now for Ches.....starting to look too far north

[NorthantsSnow]

TEITS is making the point on the other thread that at the moment the high-res NAE model does not match up with what we are actually seeing on the radar. Apparently it's further east than it should be.

And that is one straw I will go to bed clutching. There could be more twists yet to get more of us involved. Night all.

[PolarWarsaw]

NMM shows rain for most of this region - no thanks. So now things look even more marginal and the PPN is constantly moving east west, with rain-snow-rain-snow events. I can see this being a damp squib indeed. Heavy--ish rain to start with warming the surfaces, creating massive puddles, then the chance of snow for a few hours, but will it be heavy enough to stick? Then back to rain to wash the snow away. Not particularly excited at all by this and IMO im 90% sure will be NOTHING like saturdays event from an IMBY persepctive.

[kmanmx]

NMM (which did a much better job than the NAE on precip type on Saturday) forecasting a mess for W.Midlands with rain to start with changing to snow as the night goes on...quite pluaseable if the 850hpa temps are a smidge milder, though I think its probably overdoing things on its 18z run.

Still it has a stronger system then the other models and a stronger WILL have a slightly more intense milder zone with it. Great for C.Midlands however and better for the E.Midlands as well...

You think ? Places like me rarely see any intense (green) precip according to NMM.

Edited February 8, 2012 by kmanmx

[dvdfjojo]

Yep I am a little north of you and it is started to look good, although I am surprised not to see an amber warning yet, however they did get it spot on last Saturday. Have you got much snow lying in poles worth?

There's still a bit where it's been swept into piles which I'm quite surprised about as it didn't seem that cold earlier on in the week, expected it to disappear far faster. You still got a fair bit left too then?

[mackerel sky]

Wow, the NMM really ups the intensity of the rain/sleet/snow Friday morning across the West Midlands. 15cm could easily be achieved in some areas if it comes off like that and it's mostly snow.

Definitely a downgrade for the south east Midlands tonight, it's all too far west now. Oh well.

Maybes for precipitation, but 15cm when the uppers are 0C further west at best from the start? Really? You can sneak that when you have some existing snow cover. Here we are just about hanging in with snow cover outside the town centres.

When I looked at the potential of this initially for our area I thought it was a freezing rain -> snow transition event. West of the M1 it surely has to be a rain -> snow event. Whereas round here, albeit we might not get much in the way of the heavier stuff now, it is looking like snow from the start, so western parts without elevation will be playing catchup. Most snowmen's heads fell off yesterday.

[kold weather]

NMM shows rain for most of this region - no thanks. So now things look even more marginal and the PPN is constantly moving east west, with rain-snow-rain-snow events. I can see this being a damp squib indeed. Heavy--ish rain to start with warming the surfaces, creating massive puddles, then the chance of snow for a few hours, but will it be heavy enough to stick? Then back to rain to wash the snow away. Not particularly excited at all by this and IMO im 90% sure will be NOTHING like saturdays event from an IMBY persepctive.

Personally I'm not sure if the NMM is right, though I'll admit it does tend to do better in these situations then the NAE which tends to over-estimate snow coverage at times.

I think most of the Midlands will be ok. IF it is stronger though as I said before there will be more marginal conditions...but on the other side higher snowfall totals would be probable, possibly 10-15cms widely if the NMM is right...

[mackerel sky]

TEITS is making the point on the other thread that at the moment the high-res NAE model does not match up with what we are actually seeing on the radar. Apparently it's further east than it should be.

And that is one straw I will go to bed clutching. There could be more twists yet to get more of us involved. Night all.

Shades of February 2009, the county that got the most snow, but because of our "overlap" in terms of regional media coverage not widely reported.

[phil nw.]

:lol:

Suits me sir!

[Shezale coventry]

Guess here in coventry we will miss out with any heavy snow oh well we were very luck last week lol

[Costa Del Fal]

NMM shows rain for most of this region - no thanks. So now things look even more marginal and the PPN is constantly moving east west, with rain-snow-rain-snow events. I can see this being a damp squib indeed. Heavy--ish rain to start with warming the surfaces, creating massive puddles, then the chance of snow for a few hours, but will it be heavy enough to stick? Then back to rain to wash the snow away. Not particularly excited at all by this and IMO im 90% sure will be NOTHING like saturdays event from an IMBY persepctive.

You are basing that on one model. There are many others out there who rather disagree with the NMM imo! IMO the NMM did ok last week but was not perfect here. Ive seen it chop and change an awful lot between runs. Still even the NMM has shifted things West again though more needed.

Edited February 8, 2012 by Blizzards

[phil nw.]

Latest GFS suggests the whole region will have seen a covering by T48hrs.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2012/02/08/basis18/ukuk/weas/12021018_0818.gif

Edited February 8, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[A.J]

NMM shows rain for most of this region - no thanks. So now things look even more marginal and the PPN is constantly moving east west, with rain-snow-rain-snow events. I can see this being a damp squib indeed. Heavy--ish rain to start with warming the surfaces, creating massive puddles, then the chance of snow for a few hours, but will it be heavy enough to stick? Then back to rain to wash the snow away. Not particularly excited at all by this and IMO im 90% sure will be NOTHING like saturdays event from an IMBY persepctive.

good old Radders lol......I reckon that even if there was cross-model agreement on a major snow event right over your house, you'd still scour the internet for the one model that shows rain, probably something like the Outer Mongolian Forecast Model that uses the practice of staring into a cup of tea leaves to forecast snow, and then post on here that's it's not fair and that it is definitely going to rain because the Mongolian Tea Leaf model says so!

[A.J]

and the scary thing is that the mythical Mongolian Tea Leaf model would probably be more accurate the some of the global/euro models! :lol:

[kmanmx]

MetO forecast does not make sense, pretty much everywhere in the west mids and east midlands is down for "Light Snow", and only at 'Night'.. yet the models suggest up to 24hours of Heavy snow.

Edited February 8, 2012 by kmanmx

[PolarWarsaw]

good old Radders lol......I reckon that even if there was cross-model agreement on a major snow event right over your house, you'd still scour the internet for the one model that shows rain, probably something like the Outer Mongolian Forecast Model that uses the practice of staring into a cup of tea leaves to forecast snow, and then post on here that's it's not fair and that it is definitely going to rain because the Mongolian Tea Leaf model says so!

We need the +1 Icon on this board..admittedly that was pretty funny! But im just looking at certain parameters, the swings we're seeing etc. You have to realise my inner pessimism comes from many, many experiences of marginal events over the years that have fell for places like Cannock, Stafford and Lichfield but remained as pure rain here. When I look out of my window I can see the entrance to the power station, less than 500m's away. My snow melted here by Sunday afternoon, infact by Monday morning there was NO sign there'd be a big snow event 2 days previous, yet 8 miles up the road in Stafford Snow norfolk n chance had inches of the stuff frozen over. Whatever surrounding towns get, Rugeley gets less, lighter or sleetier snow, whenever its very very marginal like tommorow, Rugeley misses out whilst the towwn 5 miles up the road gets inches. Its a very surreal thing really. I wont be excited until I see snow falling out of the sky tommorow. Marginal situations whilst sometimes being the best are GENERALLY VERY hard to nail here in particular.

[Strider]

MetO forecast does not make sense, pretty much everywhere in the west mids and east midlands is down for "Light Snow", and only at 'Night'.. yet the models suggest up to 24hours of Heavy snow.

GFS 18z is going for lows of -12c on Friday heading towards -15c for Sat night! Probably over-egging things a bit but at this close range it cannot be ignored.

[A.J]

We need the +1 Icon on this board..admittedly that was pretty funny! But im just looking at certain parameters, the swings we're seeing etc. You have to realise my inner pessimism comes from many, many experiences of marginal events over the years that have fell for places like Cannock, Stafford and Lichfield but remained as pure rain here. When I look out of my window I can see the entrance to the power station, less than 500m's away. My snow melted here by Sunday afternoon, infact by Monday morning there was NO sign there'd be a big snow event 2 days previous, yet 8 miles up the road in Stafford Snow norfolk n chance had inches of the stuff frozen over. Whatever surrounding towns get, Rugeley gets less, lighter or sleetier snow, whenever its very very marginal like tommorow, Rugeley misses out whilst the towwn 5 miles up the road gets inches. Its a very surreal thing really. I wont be excited until I see snow falling out of the sky tommorow. Marginal situations whilst sometimes being the best are GENERALLY VERY hard to nail here in particular.

joking aside, you post is in fact a very good post and raises issues that have plagued me before...when Penridge has had a rain/sleet mix only to find that Mark in Stafford (7 miles to my NE) has had inches of snow as has Nick L over in Norton Canes (8 miles to my east) so trust me bud, I know exactly where you're coming from....Re. tomorrow night, I've gone from not being really interested this morning to very interested now....My bets are for a rain/sleet start for us changing to snow as the night progresses leaving accumulating snows by first light

[kmanmx]

Is there a scientific reason these snow events always seem to happen overnight ? Cant remember the last time i saw daylight snow.

[beefy201]

Is there a scientific reason these snow events always seem to happen overnight ? Cant remember the last time i saw daylight snow.

might be do with the fact it's colder at night :-)

[Shezale coventry]

Is cov in a good postion for sniw in the upcoming event?

[conor123]

Im guessing it will turn to snow here around 6am Friday Morning after 12 hours of rain/ice pellets/sleet so it's just going to be a case of hoping the precipitation doesn't die aswell to the South West to early on Friday.

It's probably going to be more a case of waiting for the Upper's to get cold enough this far west as surface temperatures and dewpoints look fine.

[Arctic Hare]

Is there a scientific reason these snow events always seem to happen overnight ? Cant remember the last time i saw daylight snow.

A lot of us saw several hours of daylight snow on Saturday. If you mean in your specific area, then I don't know.