The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 5

[kold weather]

Does it?

You weren't looking at the T+48 precip chart in isolation, were you? Check the period before that - pretty much similar to recent NAE output. Of course, a certain member posted that chart on its own, making it look like everyone was missing out.

Ha ha ha.

Yeah the UKMO still gives snow to much of the Midlands, mainly focused on the west, but its certainly further west than any other model even with some of the westward adjustments from the models tonight.

Still time for shifts either way folks, don't think tonights runs are the end game, I'm far too experienced to be sure of this...however if I was in the SW Midlands I'd be quite excited right now!

[Herefordweather]

Well I've gone from earlier today, looking like I would get possibly a sleety mix with the rain, to possibly being in the main target zone?

Never trust the weather. I'm sure it'll all change by tomorrow.

[Harve]

I hope altitude makes up for my north-easterlyness.

[snow freak]

Great, first it was centred mainly on the east midlands and now its the west midlands and east wales. Just our luck.

[kmanmx]

:lol:

Thats what i'm seing too.

Is that nice dark pink splodge over leicester? I think it is

[kold weather]

Well I've gone from earlier today, looking like I would get possibly a sleety mix with the rain, to possibly being in the main target zone?

Never trust the weather. I'm sure it'll all change by tomorrow.

If ever a warning should be issued about how much the models can change, that is it...nothing to say it won't all go back eastwards on tomorrows runs, seen it way too often for my liking!

Good runs though tonight, especially from NE Midlands through to the SW Midlands, enjoy them!

[PolarWarsaw]

Well im slightly further South than stafford and only 20 odd miles from Wolverhampton so do you think i'd get accumulating snow Blizzards?

[MKN]

Thats what i'm seing too.

Is that nice dark pink splodge over leicester? I think it is

not unless its moved to nw birmingham its not lol

[Costa Del Fal]

Well im slightly further South than stafford and only 20 odd miles from Wolverhampton so do you think i'd get accumulating snow Blizzards?

If the current charts come off. Yes.

[PolarWarsaw]

If the current charts come off. Yes.

Anything like Saturday potentially?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

That 18Z NAE model seems good mind you, Bish, I thought I saw on here he was banned

[A.J]

well so far so good, getting cautiously optimistic (gone up to 7 out of 10 on the ramp scale)..I'm just north of wolverhampton, so looking good atm judging by hi-res modeling...as of tomorrow the models go out of the window and nowcasting/radar watching takes over

[Strider]

The NAE18z doesn't look as good as the 12z overall, really sure I'm not imagining that...

My expectations remain low for all but the very SW of our region. I don't really expect any accumulations for anyone else.

[Bishop Brennan]

That 18Z NAE model seems good mind you, Bish, I thought I saw on here he was banned

Can't say I'm surprised, he had an unhappy knack of winding people up on here.

Yep, the 18Z NAE looks very encouraging for the entire region. But I'll only believe it will snow when I actually see it falling from the sky.........

Bish

[kmanmx]

not unless its moved to nw birmingham its not lol

Pretty sure that dark blob is over Leicester.. I just lined it up on a map.

Im more interested in where NMM puts the precip, it was very accurate on Saturdays event.

Edited February 8, 2012 by kmanmx

[MKN]

Pretty sure that dark blob is over Leicester.. I just lined it up on a map.

Im more interested in where NMM puts the precip, it was very accurate on Saturdays event.

let us know what it says when its out

[Gord]

Suddenly looking quite good for tomorrow. We are now nearly into the zone of forgetting models and waiting to look at the radar and other reports.

Solved my little travelling problem tomorrow. My wife said she could drive me in on the morning and I'll use the train home in the afternoon. Like I said, London Midland are fairly good at keeping the city trains running when snow is falling. It'll be fine! If it does start snowing when I leave...will be an interesting journey into central Brum and then out again through Rowley and Cradley towards Stourbridge. A lot of local elevation changes there! Could be snowing in Hamstead but raining when I get back to Wordsley!

[cyclonic happiness]

Looks like the middle midlands is best placed imo in area from leicester to stoke to hereford to stratford and up to coventry on the eastern side.

All around those areas will see light snow but the bull's eye looks to be somewhere around Tamworth, it'll all change though

[Gord]

BBC 5 day online forecast updated and that still looks good. I know it's not always the best forecast but at short range can provide a quick overall guide.

It says sleet and rain for Saturday. Also has 7c for Monday....but we've been chasing a 7-10c on the 5th day of their forecast for over a week now and we never get there!

[#windysnow#]

Looks like the middle midlands is best placed imo in area from leicester to stoke to hereford to stratford and up to coventry on the eastern side.

All around those areas will see light snow but the bull's eye looks to be somewhere around Tamworth, it'll all change though

I like the sound of that I am 6 miles ne of teamworth and I thought that dark blob looked over me

[kold weather]

My postcode is in the firing line for snowmageddon going on the latest NAE run. Just hope its west bias is not in overdrive - could see the whole system get shunted into the North Sea.

:lol:

LOL!!

In all seriousness mate, the GFS shifting westwards is a good sign, its something I like to see. At least I wouldn't have spent a £1000 for nothing...Glad to see the snow not being shifted eastwards.

Yeah, not surprised, the GFS probasbly suggests 10-15cms for you, lets hope it stays there!

[NorthantsSnow]

Wow, the NMM really ups the intensity of the rain/sleet/snow Friday morning across the West Midlands. 15cm could easily be achieved in some areas if it comes off like that and it's mostly snow.

Definitely a downgrade for the south east Midlands tonight, it's all too far west now. Oh well.

[kold weather]

All rain on the NMM for the west Midlands out to around 3am, central regions do get hammered however and the snow line is coming to the west but NMM is a rain-snow event.

My gut however is the models is overdoing the warmth on this run, doesn't really tally that well with what the other models are suggesting...even if it ewas by far the best model in terms of precip type last weekend...

Around 10cms for central regions...

[dvdfjojo]

I'm near Tamworth so that looks good for me. I've been watching the charts for a couple of days and kept thinking, nah, the 850s are far too high but every run just looks better and better so perhaps it might not be rain after all. Not too long to wait for this one though, we'll soon see how it starts tomorrow afternoon :-)

[#windysnow#]

I'm near Tamworth so that looks good for me. I've been watching the charts for a couple of days and kept thinking, nah, the 850s are far too high but every run just looks better and better so perhaps it might not be rain after all. Not too long to wait for this one though, we'll soon see how it starts tomorrow afternoon :-)

Yep I am a little north of you and it is started to look good, although I am surprised not to see an amber warning yet, however they did get it spot on last Saturday. Have you got much snow lying in poles worth?