The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 5

[phil nw.]

GFS 18z is going for lows of -12c on Friday heading towards -15c for Sat night! Probably over-egging things a bit but at this close range it cannot be ignored.

Does seem very low,however going by the expected snowcover under cold air from the continent the conditions would be favourable

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/08/basis18/ukuk/t850/12021018_0818.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/08/basis18/ukuk/taup/12021018_0818.gif

Very dry air-look at the dewpoints.

[kmanmx]

A lot of us saw several hours of daylight snow on Saturday. If you mean in your specific area, then I don't know.

Didn't really get started here till after 5pm. The last good snowfall I saw arrived between 12 and 6am too.

might be do with the fact it's colder at night :-)

Good point!!

[Soma]

Well I should be in the "target zone" but nowcasting is best as its still undecided exactly what and where. Needless to say I will report on conditions tomorrow! Good luck Midlanders!

[Barbmac]

Been offline half of yesterday - went for a walk on the Malverns and had a nasty fall, badly sprained my arm, so am reduced to one hand typing. Just saw the midnight news on the BBC - so the snow is now forecast further westwards over our patch! My only gripe is I won't be out building snowmen if we get a dumping.

[kmanmx]

00z Has it even further west. Looks like a good event for west midlands, drier by the minute for east midlands, probably wont end up with anything more than 1 or 2cm east of Birmingham.

GFS snow accumalation charts look good too for west midlands, again only a few centimeters at best for east midlands I think.

By 12afternoon Friday.

Edited February 9, 2012 by kmanmx

[Ian Ballinger]

00z Has it even further west. Looks like a good event for west midlands, drier by the minute for east midlands, probably wont end up with anything more than 1 or 2cm east of Birmingham.

Please please pan out this way and not be rain here

[PolarWarsaw]

Not what I wanted to see, a shift of 50 or so miles east would leave me happy. GFS looks good for a notherly next week this morning.

Edit - scrap that, give me that accumulation chart and ill be a happy birthday boy!

Edited February 9, 2012 by Radders

[kmanmx]

Ever so slightly colder uppers and dew points too. Not much, only drops by a degree in one or two places. But overall definitely a little cooler. Probably explains why the NAE is more lenient with how far west the snow is.

[Snowy Easterly]

just as GFS goes a bit further east NAE goes further west typical

[kmanmx]

Not what I wanted to see, a shift of 50 or so miles east would leave me happy. GFS looks good for a notherly next week this morning.

Edit - scrap that, give me that accumulation chart and ill be a happy birthday boy!

I want it 50miles east! Gimme!

West Midlands faired slightly better than East last saturday, and nearly always does fair better than east mids. I feel like I deserve it

[Ian Ballinger]

I want it 50miles east! Gimme!

West Midlands faired slightly better than East last saturday, and nearly always does fair better than east mids. I feel like I deserve it

Not here we didn't it's our turn

[Snowy Easterly]

ironic that the west does better than the east when we have the colder air

i hope the GFS is right

Edited February 9, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[PolarWarsaw]

Anyone checked the GFS this morning? Looks decent for a sustained northerly next week.

[Jackfrost]

I'm rooting for the West Midlands too, mainly because it'll be a bit more beneficial for us just across the border. :winky:

Edited February 9, 2012 by jackfrost

[kmanmx]

I like how the place was dead and everyone has suddenly appeared out of nowhere for the 00z, lol!

Now I shall go to bed thinking eastlery thoughts.

East..

East...

East....

Edited February 9, 2012 by kmanmx

[kold weather]

NMM much closer to the NAE this morning, with some BIG snowfall amounts for areas that start as snow. W.MIdlands still look borderline but even if it starts as rain I'd imagine there isa very good chance it'll freeze over rapidly overnight and once that happens I'm sure the snow will come pouring.

NMM may well be suggestive of a 15-20cm bullseye zone...looks very good for Central areas of the Midlands that will not be marginal..and IF that wedge is slightly over-estimated at 850hpa, ALOT of snow would be likely for the W.Midlands as well...

[camperstron]

Interesting day ahead!! As long as my kids get home from school safely this afternoon (they use the buses) and my other half gets home from work okay (he drives across brum) and we don't have a Jan )4 gridlock I'll be happy with anything - but a 10cm dumping and an early start to half term would be bosting!!!

[kold weather]

Today I'll be an hounary Midlander...I'll probably be praying the snow westwards for you guys, as mad as that sounds!

Looking good so far, lets see how the radar evolves over the morning, but I'm VERY encouraged by the NMM with regards to possibly BIG falls of snow, it did a stunning jon on totals on Saturday in the SE, so if it stays as snow then 15-20cms is more than possible for a few locations...

[camperstron]

I was impressed by uour cahrt on the other thread kold. If that comes off, well...my word!!

[marksp]

Today I'll be an hounary Midlander...I'll probably be praying the snow westwards for you guys, as mad as that sounds!

Looking good so far, lets see how the radar evolves over the morning, but I'm VERY encouraged by the NMM with regards to possibly BIG falls of snow, it did a stunning jon on totals on Saturday in the SE, so if it stays as snow then 15-20cms is more than possible for a few locations...

like the sound of this, could be in a sweet spot here, we did well out of last event 15cm, I really think this time we could have more.

we always seem to do well in these events, either a bit west, or east does.nt matter to much..

[kold weather]

I was impressed by uour cahrt on the other thread kold. If that comes off, well...my word!!

Good to hear, as I said its quite possible I've underdone things a little in the sweet spot, I toyed with piutting 15-20cms in that red zone but I held off based on the NAE not being as agressive, but if the NMM looks like its coming off then that red zone will have tobe increased.

[Costa Del Fal]

Like Kold has said, NMM much more like the NAE this morning. GFS rather similar, infact slightly further East but this way underestimated things last week here and right now is a model pretty much on its own regarding tonight and its snow extent. Can never 100% dismiss it though but its outcome is unlikely imo.

Im not being IMBY but here could be one of the better places along with through Worcestershire and Herefordshire.

Edited February 9, 2012 by Blizzards

[Shezale coventry]

Anyone think coventry has a good chance of heavy snow??

[Staffordshire]

Today could be a good event here, but unlike satarday I'm not going to sit and read charts all day and going to get on with something rather than wait what seems like forever!

[kold weather]

Im not being IMBY but here could be one of the better places along with through Worcestershire and Herefordshire.

Indeed I'd agree with that, I've put that area very close/just within my red zone of 12cms+

The only uncertainty still remains about exactly the state of the 850hpa temps, but it seems that even if they start off on the wrong side of marginal ,by 1-3am they will be the right side and any rain will probably turn to ice anyway, so no worries about it settling even after an extended period of rain/sleet.