The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 5

[Costa Del Fal]

The GFS and NMM are pretty much the only models that I can find that keep the cold enough uppers out to the East. For example the GFS and NMM have the decent uppers only over East Anglia by tomorrow evening. Everything else has at least the 0c 850hPa line into Wales at least.

[cyclonic happiness]

Well went for a ride around and found that the majority of the snow has melted over towards Brum', but we still have a fair bit over Coventry way??

Here's a few pictures anyway (a good excuse to show off my new bike anyway ).

[A.J]

Well went for a ride around and found that the majority of the snow has melted over towards Brum', but we still have a fair bit over Coventry way??

Here's a few pictures anyway (a good excuse to show off my new bike anyway ).

shameless plug for your bike & where's the snow?...lol....I can see a bit of compact dandruff but that's about it!.....So then, that's your reg number is it?...cheers for that, I'll be cloning that bugger tonight, so expect a few speeding tickets, hit & run insurance claims & parking fines coming your way!

[cyclonic happiness]

shameless plug for your bike & where's the snow?...lol....I can see a bit of compact dandruff but that's about it!.....So then, that's your reg number is it?...cheers for that, I'll be cloning that bugger tonight, so expect a few speeding tickets, hit & run insurance claims & parking fines coming your way!

I can clock up my own speeding tickets thankyou very much

I tell you what though, I seem to have forgotten how to ride?

I've been riding the Enfield for such a long time that my sportsbike riding 'skills' all seem to have vanished, probably not the best time of the year to re-learn how to ride.

The bike's in amazing condition though for it's age (18 years old) isn't it? I think the last owner must have been a nun or something? and it's very low milage 28,000 miles, it's smooth as silk and bloody fast! I had it up to just over 110mph on the MIRA test strip....ehem!

I can't wait for the summer now so I can practice my riding, I used to be quite fast.

I did actually intend to go out and find some snow, but I must have gone in the wrong direction?

Still looks like a maybe for tomorrow night's now doesn't it?

[Snowy Easterly]

WWF/WWE main event this is! A Royal Rumble between the models!

See on the GFS, it's squeaky bum time even for me and i'm not in the West Midlands

I'd like to see what data the Met Office are currently looking at.

Hopefully GFS wins the rumble

but i am being IMBY

[andy_leics22]

I can clock up my own speeding tickets thankyou very much

I tell you what though, I seem to have forgotten how to ride?

I've been riding the Enfield for such a long time that my sportsbike riding 'skills' all seem to have vanished, probably not the best time of the year to re-learn how to ride.

The bike's in amazing condition though for it's age (18 years old) isn't it? I think the last owner must have been a nun or something? and it's very low milage 28,000 miles, it's smooth as silk and bloody fast! I had it up to just over 110mph on the MIRA test strip....ehem!

I can't wait for the summer now so I can practice my riding, I used to be quite fast.

I did actually intend to go out and find some snow, but I must have gone in the wrong direction?

Still looks like a maybe for tomorrow night's now doesn't it?

Awesome pics of the bike Cyclonic! Should have used to snow we have left in Leicester as the backdrop though :winky: That bike reminds me of the red one you used to get on Road Rash on the Mega Drive for some reason :lol: *comes up beside you on another bike and smacks you off with chain*

Edited February 8, 2012 by andy_leics22

[MKN]

Bbc going for around 3/4 hours of snow roughly based on the 6pm forecast for large areas of the midlands, looks like a rapid move through, although did still say upto 10cms for some parts in central england. I think carol must av been ramping slightly this morning with talk of upto 20cms, i guess we need it to stall with more of an influence from the high out west for that to happen. looks to be very much of a fine balancing act. Hopefully in the morning we can all look forward to some snow with alot more certainty. 5cms would do me based on the fact its due to freeze over this time unlike saturdays event. should stay around longer

Edited February 8, 2012 by SnowTornado

[marksp]

definately a good chance for all of us in the midlands.

T2 Temps between 0 and -2 over midlands, between 12z out to 06z friday, 18hours, 850s start at 0 to1 then cold moves west and they drop to 0 -2 then 0 to -5 for whole region, -5 850s out east.

ppn looks good throughout the whole period.

i suspose if you go by todays weather, the 850s stuck around 0 to 1 and t2 temps been around -2 to plus 3 all day. BUT no melt here. car park full of ice all day.

so going by this I would expect tp see plenty of show here.

thats if you rely on the GFS 12Z RUN.

(30mm of ppn for this area over 48hours)

[Costa Del Fal]

ECM 12z snowfall charts look fine too. Light snow beginning around late tomorrow afternoon in the North Mids. Then the East Mids sees the Moderate snowfall before soon transferring West. Perhaps West of Bham could see prolonged Light to Moderate snowfall as the front really slows down as it reaches Wales and the West. Snowfall leaving around Friday evening.

[cyclonic happiness]

Awesome pics of the bike Cyclonic! Should have used to snow we have left in Leicester as the backdrop though :winky: That bike reminds me of the red one you used to get on Road Rash on the Mega Drive for some reason :lol: *comes up beside you on another bike and smacks you off with chain*

Ahhh that looks like a Honda VFR750 the red one, the yellow one is a Kawasaki ZXR750 (how anal am I?) my bike is quite a rare one and was designed by the same bloke who designed the Ferrari Testarossa, as you can tell by the slats on the side of the bike.

I can't begin to tell you how bloody fast this bike is!!! I'm like a small child with a large toy lol!

Mmmm? middle aged bloke gets superbike that looks like a Ferrari? I feel a mid-life crisis coming on!

(well, I'm 34....is that too young for a mid-life crisis?)

[conor123]

We had heavy snow here with uppers of -2/-3 on Saturday, when the -1 850hPa sector crossed us in the evening it turned to ice pellets/freezing rain then normal rain so will have to wait and see what happens.

ECM looks decent with sub zero uppers across all of the region Friday.

Edited February 8, 2012 by conor123

[kmanmx]

I found NMMs positioning of precipitation and its intensity spot on last saturday, the latest model before the run seemed very accurate, it calculated the heavier precip hitting Leicester area around 8pm, and thats pretty much exactley what happened.

NMM Shows light precip entering the midlands (both east and west) around 1pm. Slightly stronger stuff creeps down between east midlands border and the welsh border by about 4pm, receeding to lighter stuff after that but spreading right from welsh border through to east coast. By about 8pm heavier precip appears to develop in lincs northwest up through yorkshire, at which point is falls down through east midlands into west midlands by about 1am friday, at which point NMM stops.

Thats what I'm seeing anyway. More worrying is that NMM predicts the snow line just east of Leicester.. everything from me westwards is rain

Edited February 8, 2012 by kmanmx

[I remember Atlantic 252]

seems to be looking more of a southern thing this, I think the S and SW midlands in best spot, similar to 18 Dec 2010, (completely different setup mind you)

[BlueHedgehog074]

Recently went outside to put some stuff into the bin - it must have felt like it was at least -2/-3*C out their, although looking at the local Met Office latest temperature report for 6pm, it's just below freezing at -0.7*C. Mind you, it's probably slightly colder than that now.

This does appear to be one of those events that seemed to have come out of nowhere. Seemed like the 10 day Netweather forecast had it dry for here about a day or so ago. If some of the models, such as the NMM, can still bring the snow risk further North-West, more snow shields could hopefully be weakened.

[snowmadchrisuk]

I guess it depends what/who you're going to place your trust in the most: the Met Office - a complex based in Exeter, populated with intelligent minds concerning meteorology with access to all available model output including the UKV (a model worthy of the term 'hi-res'), or the NMM - a model that is, in my opinion, being highly overrated at the moment - and a couple of "experts" on here.

Think I'll put my trust in the former, along with my own judgement.

Well our local forecaster down in Bristol has just done a very encouraging forecast for the SW on BBC points West . He said it is very different to last time and the focus of the Snow this time is on the SW region as apose to further East like last Weekend .. Showed loads of graphics and mentioned the Met Office super computer a few times so really don't know what to think at the minute there are so many conflicting Forecasts/Models it's a tough cookie to call.

Latest Tweet from Ian

fergieweather Ian Fergusson

“@LidlPop: @fergieweather Enough snow in Somerset to close schools?†impossible to say but timing into Fri AM not helpful, for sure...

[Gord]

ECM 12z snowfall charts look fine too. Light snow beginning around late tomorrow afternoon in the North Mids. Then the East Mids sees the Moderate snowfall before soon transferring West. Perhaps West of Bham could see prolonged Light to Moderate snowfall as the front really slows down as it reaches Wales and the West. Snowfall leaving around Friday evening.

Interesting. Again, like last weekend, I'll hold judgement until the event is almost on top of us. Last weekend worked out far better than first thought here. Even the change to rain at the end wasn't a problem. But every event is different so shouldn't use last weekend to predict what might happen this time.

Your sig needs updating...and you may end up with quite a bit of catching up to do on it as this rate!

[Costa Del Fal]

Interesting. Again, like last weekend, I'll hold judgement until the event is almost on top of us. Last weekend worked out far better than first thought here. Even the change to rain at the end wasn't a problem. But every event is different so shouldn't use last weekend to predict what might happen this time.

Your sig needs updating...and you may end up with quite a bit of catching up to do on it as this rate!

Ahh Yes the sig is way out of date. Will get round to it...eventually. :lol:

Edited February 8, 2012 by Blizzards

[Gord]

Ahh Yes the sig is way out of date. Will get round to it...eventually. :lol:

You might as well wait until this cold spell ends...the way it keeps springing things on us at the last minute might make it hard to keep count!

[PolarWarsaw]

I think this event is more marginal and slightly worse positioned from an IMBY prospect than last weekend. Things look marginally more marginal and I suspect we may see lots of rain before we see the transition to snow.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

wonder what IB would think! turning to snow as it moves SE away from Staffs and Shrops, best spot Hereford area

[cyclonic happiness]

By the looks of things it's practically the same as on saturday, the only better thing is that we won't get a thaw of any lying snow as much colder air will be dragged in and freeze things back up again.

I think that it will be an all snow event for the majority of the midlands and that the west shall do alot better this time in regards to falling and lying snow.

[MKN]

on a side not capello's resigned. Good timing

[Ian Ballinger]

By the looks of things it's practically the same as on saturday, the only better thing is that we won't get a thaw of any lying snow as much colder air will be dragged in and freeze things back up again.

I think that it will be an all snow event for the majority of the midlands and that the west shall do alot better this time in regards to falling and lying snow.

Fingers crossed,

on a side not capello's resigned. Good timing

Edited February 8, 2012 by ajpoolshark
bad taste, thus removed text

[MKN]

By the looks of things it's practically the same as on saturday, the only better thing is that we won't get a thaw of any lying snow as much colder air will be dragged in and freeze things back up again.

I think that it will be an all snow event for the majority of the midlands and that the west shall do alot better this time in regards to falling and lying snow.

Yup agree there we widely got 10cms sat night but come 5pm sunday alot of us including here had 5cms maybe at best followed by almost none 48hours after, here we are looking at anywhere between 2/10cms depending on where abouts in the mids you are but come 24/48 hours later nearly all will still be lying.

Edited February 8, 2012 by ajpoolshark
removed deleted quote

[Jan]

Hi Midlands thread, am I in the right one?............off down to Castle Donnington on Friday night for a wedding on Saturday. Will I need my wellies down there?