The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 5

[phil nw.]

Indeed I'd agree with that, I've put that area very close/just within my red zone of 12cms+

The only uncertainty still remains about exactly the state of the 850hpa temps, but it seems that even if they start off on the wrong side of marginal ,by 1-3am they will be the right side and any rain will probably turn to ice anyway, so no worries about it settling even after an extended period of rain/sleet.

Hi Kold,

I think a lot of us in here appreciate your informative imputs so cheers for that.

Yes i think quite a large part of the midlands should see some snowcover comparing all the models.

Difficult to estimate totals but the central and western areas look to get at least 5-10cms widely.

It`s been a funny winter wrt snow so far-virtually nothing for over 2months and now we are looking at our second decent event in a week-with a probable

cold week to come next week.

[Bishop Brennan]

Charts continue to look good this morning. Almost there..........

Am I right in saying that this is likely to be a rain-to-snow event tonight?

Bish

[Potent Gust]

What time is the rain/snow due to hit the Midlands?

[andy_leics22]

I'm still really not sure about this personally. I'm going to stick my neck out and say that the precip will start as rain/sleet anywhere West of Birmingham and I fully expect it to be rain in places like Bristol for a good few hours before it turns to snow.

The GFS still hasn't backed down about this.

[A.J]

getting twitchy bum syndrome now as I contemplate my delivery run this afternoon/evening..It could be an horrendous drive.....I'll be in daventry from 4-6 then to warwick from 7-8 before my journey back to staffs....not looking good!

[andy_leics22]

getting twitchy bum syndrome now as I contemplate my delivery run this afternoon/evening..It could be an horrendous drive.....I'll be in daventry from 4-6 then to warwick from 7-8 before my journey back to staffs....not looking good!

I personally think it won't have turned to snow in Staffs by 9pm, probably still rain/sleet before the colder air digs in. Could be freezing rain though which would be warranting the twitchy bum!

[ANYWEATHER]

Charts continue to look good this morning. Almost there..........

Am I right in saying that this is likely to be a rain-to-snow event tonight?

Bish

A snow event right through!!!

[andy_leics22]

Is it just me or is the precip further South than it should be at this time?! It's knocking on the door of Nottingham and I didn't expect it to reach Nottingham until about 3pm :huh:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still looks better for SW areas on 00Z's, but still hopeful of a covering, unlike last week as well, should turn cold again from the east after the precip

[MKN]

What do you think for our chances Andy? I think were looking at 2/3hours of snow giving 2/3cms. We need it to shift east ideally. Even if just by 30miles would make a huge difference. At least we should see all snow

[andy_leics22]

Charts continue to look good this morning. Almost there..........

Am I right in saying that this is likely to be a rain-to-snow event tonight?

Bish

Depends where you are Bish, IMO Staffs, Birmingham Westwards, Shropshire, Worcestershire... It will start as rain/sleet/freezing rain and then turn to snow after a few hours, places like Leicester, Coventry, Rutland and Warwickshire as a whole... I'd expoect it to start as snow and stay as snow but don't hold me to that, it's just my hunch from looking at the models this morning.

Lets see if I end up with eggy face or not :lol:

[andy_leics22]

What do you think for our chances Andy? I think were looking at 2/3hours of snow giving 2/3cms. We need it to shift east ideally. Even if just by 30miles would make a huge difference. At least we should see all snow

I reckon we could see a good 3-6 hours of snow from this, probably light-moderate with some heavier bursts mixed in. I'd say 5cm looks likely if the precip doesn't act stupid and split over Leicester like it has a habit of doing :lol:

[leicsnow]

I reckon we could see a good 3-6 hours of snow from this, probably light-moderate with some heavier bursts mixed in. I'd say 5cm looks likely if the precip doesn't act stupid and split over Leicester like it has a habit of doing :lol:

Thankfully my village is often a sweet spot in Leics for good depth!

Is it just me or is the precip further South than it should be at this time?! It's knocking on the door of Nottingham and I didn't expect it to reach Nottingham until about 3pm :huh:

Does that mean it could reach us soon

Edited February 9, 2012 by Tellow

[andy_leics22]

Does that mean it could reach us soon

Well, it could reach here by midday if it carries on like this! I would prefer it to arrive this afternoon/evening though when the colder 850's are in place.

[Polar Low]

Looking quite interesting today, I'd agree with PPN remaining light-moderate for the most part, things may get a little better overnight.

Light snow here in Newark at the moment, looks as though it could be quite prolonged.

[richbiss]

Is it just me or is the precip further South than it should be at this time?! It's knocking on the door of Nottingham and I didn't expect it to reach Nottingham until about 3pm :huh:

I thought this too Andy, looking at Raintoday premium they are forecasting it to be reaching Nottingham by 10am like you say!

[Bolton67]

Well i'm getting more confused by the minute! the Meto have now got this area down for heavy snow again.

The radar is showing quite a bit more precip in the North Sea.

[Polar Low]

I thought this too Andy, looking at Raintoday premium they are forecasting it to be reaching Nottingham by 10am like you say!

Won't happen, expect particularly slower progress over the next 5-6 hours.

[tinybill]

been watching carol k she is warning of ice storm in the midlands and the north so be carefull this morning

[andy_leics22]

A pic I took this morning of Braunstone park near me..

The lake is mostly frozen over and there is still a good 5cm of snow left on the grass, apologies for the poor quality though lol, the camera on my phone is 8MP but I was freezing cold and shaking :lol:

[Barbmac]

I hope I can get yo the local hospital and back for my X-ray before this snow arrives - leaving in around 45 mins. If we do get a dumping over Malvern I won't be able to enjoy it! *sniffles*

[A.J]

I personally think it won't have turned to snow in Staffs by 9pm, probably still rain/sleet before the colder air digs in. Could be freezing rain though which would be warranting the twitchy bum!

Well, I definitely have to go to Atherstone (nr Tamworth) to pick up supplies around lunchtime, but I might phone my customers up further south and re-arrange deliveries for tomorrow evening instead TBH.....Radar had PPN developing ahead of the hi-res models projections, and whether it's freezing rain, sleet or snow, it's not good for driving

[dvdfjojo]

Those 850s are definitely too high at 0 for me - it'd be a meteorological miracle. Keeping everything crossed though as it looks as though it's going to be hazardous regardless.

/edit - to ajpoolshark - stay safe fella!

Edited February 9, 2012 by dvdfjojo

[mark24374]

Anybody round tamworth gets stuck give us a shout 4x4 ready and waiting to go.

[SalopWatcher]

Starting to get a little worried about driving down to Surrey on Friday now, if this pans out the lenght of the route (M54, M6,M40) will all see some significant snow fall... what chances the roads being ok at 9am on Friday? Low I would guess!

Might keep an eye on things today, and should it look to be bad, try and hammer down there tonight and stay over somewhere...

To make matters worse, I have to come back Friday night then on Saturday morning drive from Shrewsbury to Brecon for a wedding on the A49 most of the way, which also looks like it could be inline for some serious snow. Not confident about either of the journeys (espesially the latter with two kids under two in the car!)

Intresting day coming up.