Wales Cymru Autumn Weather Discussion

[Scarlet_Snow]

Seen quite a few flashes of lightning all evening, plus a lot of hail/sleety stuff mixed into the showers

[andymusic]

low has totally missed us in Wales - shame - meto right again - but plenty of reports of just over the border and the bridge in Bristol and Somerset of heavy and a couple of inches snow! - only needed to be about another 50 or so miles further north and it could have all been in Wales too!

joe B's forecast for the eastern USA - this week

another storm - as the americans are only just recovering from Hurricane Sandy

Edited November 4, 2012 by andymusic

[Cwmbran Eira]

Interesting afternoon yesterday as others have reported. I was stoking the old wood burner and staring out of the window in a bit of a day dream then BOOM! Big lightening straight in front of me followed by a big old hail storm.

The mountain has a few white patches this morning ~300m asl by the looks of it. Not sure if its left over hail or snow.

Edited November 4, 2012 by Cwmbran Eira

[andymusic]

another line of hefty looking showers now approaching Wales - nae says rain - I expect it'll be right - but we shall see!

here's Bath this morning - winter wonderland

and Bristol

Edited November 4, 2012 by andymusic

[J10]

Probably will be some hail in there at least.

The SW England snow came early morning, the coldest part of the day, and goes to show how productive these channel lows can be.

In recent years much more productive looking events have not delivered.

Here's hoping he jet stream remains so far, so Wales is on the northern side of these lows and not the southern side. as a few miles can make all the difference.

[andymusic]

some severe looking weather approaching Llanelli and Swansea now

[Gavla]

some severe looking weather approaching Llanelli and Swansea now

most likely rain seems to mild for any white stuff, i would like to be proved wrong though. Nice to see some lucky people across the border getting some snow. Im so jealous been lurking in their regional thread haha. Hopefully our time will come sooner rather than later.

[ARTDEMOLE]

The Snowfall finished here in Peasedown St John at 09;00.Six miles from Bath... The sun is behind the clouds and snow now gone from trees.Slowly going up to 5c...At the moment 4.8c

Edited November 4, 2012 by ARTDEMOLE

[ARTDEMOLE]

Guess I should have put the previous post in my own are but it is not too far away...

[Gavla]

Guess I should have put the previous post in my own are but it is not too far away...

further enough away for you to have the snow and for us to have none. Nice to see that you have had some white stuff and i wish i was there, snow just always lifts my mood no matter what. Any chance of sharing some with us lol.

[andymusic]

further enough away for you to have the snow and for us to have none. Nice to see that you have had some white stuff and i wish i was there, snow just always lifts my mood no matter what. Any chance of sharing some with us lol.

some tasty looking model charts now showing up - BIG European high seems to be taking up residence end of reliable and into FI land - looks good for a major cool down as we go further into November - some are even saying we have the potential for another 2010 December - we shall see - but synoptics look mouth watering potentially good for all to get a bumper cold and snow set up! - John Holmes + Steve Murr are certainly getting all excited!

Edited November 4, 2012 by andymusic

[TonyH]

SM always does but JH!

[andymusic]

SM always does but JH!

lots of weather heading in your direction today I think Tony - Enjoy!

[Gavla]

some tasty looking model charts now showing up - BIG European high seems to be taking up residence end of reliable and into FI land - looks good for a major cool down as we go further into November - some are even saying we have the potential for another 2010 December - we shall see - but synoptics look mouth watering potentially good for all to get a bumper cold and snow set up! - John Holmes + Steve Murr are certainly getting all excited!

That would be more than welcome bring it on! I am trying to learn to take everything with a pinch of salt as i seem to get dissapointed more often than not. Also i have seen how the mood can change overnight on here lol.

[andymusic]

well once again - Britain struggles with a little snow - weird - what's gonna happen if we get this "brutal" winter Mr Joe B keeps harping on about - terrified we'll all have to hibernate! -

http://www.bbc.co.uk...ngland-20197064

Don't these people keep an eye on the weather? - or are they just enjoying the silly adrenalin rush (cause they can't live without it) and then putting all the rescue guys in perril as well! daft me thinks!

http://www.bbc.co.uk...-wales-20196964

weather update:- cold rain showers with what looks like large blobs of something in - could be sleet - but probably 1 or 2 hundred metres up it is snow!

Quote from Steve Murr - "offsetting the downwelling from Stratospheric > tropospheric Coupling" sounds very naughty or very "Sheldon" like from Big Bang Theory!

edit number 5000333777:- gone very very dark up here - feels like I can touch the clouds - looks a bit like the independence day film - bit scary really!

Edited November 4, 2012 by andymusic

[Scarlet_Snow]

Hoping this may be the year that we can beat our record in Llanelli of 6 inches of snow from a pembrokeshire dangler in either 04/05, cant remember exactly which - the most snow I've ever seen in my lifetime anyway. I have a good feeling about it this year...though I did last year too...!

[andymusic]

European High Pressure big feature again in the GFS 12z

[Gavla]

i thought we didnt want a euro high for sustained cold, more like a scandi or greenland high?. Iam still learning so go easy on me lol.

[andymusic]

i thought we didnt want a euro high for sustained cold, more like a scandi or greenland high?. Iam still learning so go easy on me lol.

no worries - it's the same sort of thing - high pressure placed out in Europe feeding cold air off the continent - the scandi in particular is the best generally - but a feed off the continent is what we are looking for, for a prolonged and more "severe" type of cold spell! - keep an eye on the temp on the continent too - initially the high isn't feeding particulary cold air - but the cold air does start to filter round and down towards us eventually towards the end of this GFS 12z run - improvements should be seen now as each run comes out in the coming days!

edit:- all the 3s 3333 - didn't see that on my posts count! - hope it's lucky!

edit 1:- there's a strange thing - my post count has been stuck on 3333 for sometime - and it seems everyone elses is stuck too! - a little bug in the system me thinks

Edited November 4, 2012 by andymusic

[andymusic]

very chilly out tonight - raining at the moment - complicated low now crossing south wales (with a slight warm sector embedded in it) with showers dotted all over it - GFS has us down to 1 and 0 degrees overnight - mmmmmmmmmmmm - any chance wintry precip may be a possibility especially off the back end which will carry a northerly fetching wind just like the way the south west had there snow this morning? - Nae says no! - once again - a little lampost watching may be required

edit - the post count now seems to be fixed - thank you!

Wales has it's own miniature Hurricane Sandy - what shall we call her - Hurricane Gladys?

Edited November 4, 2012 by andymusic

[alijoe]

very chilly out tonight - raining at the moment - complicated low now crossing south wales (with a slight warm sector embedded in it) with showers dotted all over it - GFS has us down to 1 and 0 degrees overnight - mmmmmmmmmmmm - any chance wintry precip may be a possibility especially off the back end which will carry a northerly fetching wind just like the way the south west had there snow this morning? - Nae says no! - once again - a little lampost watching may be required

edit - the post count now seems to be fixed - thank you!

Ãndy you little minx, your posts this afternoon are getting me excited about possible future snow prospects lol, I have tried to convince myself not to get excited this winter as last winter was total disaster for me, but unfortunately that big kid is still here and now I realise I have no way of ever not getting excited óf the prospects. fingers crossed for some great winter weather this year.

[Gavla]

very chilly out tonight - raining at the moment - complicated low now crossing south wales (with a slight warm sector embedded in it) with showers dotted all over it - GFS has us down to 1 and 0 degrees overnight - mmmmmmmmmmmm - any chance wintry precip may be a possibility especially off the back end which will carry a northerly fetching wind just like the way the south west had there snow this morning? - Nae says no! - once again - a little lampost watching may be required

edit - the post count now seems to be fixed - thank you!

Wales has it's own miniature Hurricane Sandy - what shall we call her - Hurricane Gladys?

This weather does seem rather strange hopefully its a good sign. Thanks for explaining the pressures a bit earlier, will be investing in a book this year to help with some technical stuff. Was this low currently over us forecasted as everything seems to have not been forecasted lol, looks good on the radar.

[TonyH]

Yes it was on the models mid week. In fact looking at my guide from last weekend there is a shallow low over sw so outstanding modelling!

Edited November 4, 2012 by TonyH

[andymusic]

This weather does seem rather strange hopefully its a good sign. Thanks for explaining the pressures a bit earlier, will be investing in a book this year to help with some technical stuff. Was this low currently over us forecasted as everything seems to have not been forecasted lol, looks good on the radar.

yep - the one this morning came out of nowhere from it's mother - which is the low crossing Wales now - the problem with the last couple of days or so is that the low and cold set up has been quite complicated and fast moving - so lots happening - the models have pretty much had it nailed on - they weren't sure mind you about this morning's low until the lastish minute - so - lots going on - think things will calm down a little from about tuesday onwards - to give us all a rest - before the next episode of dynamic weather hits us!

[keithlucky]

Whatever tilt the met office puts on the 3inc of snow that fell in Bath and the surrounding areas .they ignored the GFS from yesterday there strong signals of back edge snow in these areas and they badly let down the local councils who would been ready if they were warned.

Edited November 4, 2012 by keithlucky