Wales Cymru Autumn Weather Discussion

[Stevetynant]

was on top of the Eppynt in Brecon on Sat Night - snowed lighlty a few times on and off - which was amazing as there were very few clouds- temp on the car said 1.5 degrees but there was a fierce wind God knows what the wind chill was- we weren't there for long I can tell you

Both my daughters went to Cardiff Uni =- one is still there for the next two to three years- both love it.

[TonyH]

Mild to very mild the rest of this month. GFS maxima above 9c here throughout, and little in the way of frost.

[mikeocarroll]

Got up to 12.5c here today, warmest of the year so far (though nowhere near what was reached in parts of England). The next week looks fairly dull weatherwise with grey cloud and drizzle remaining the order of the day. ECM at least is suggesting a more active Atlantic out in the far reaches of FI, I'd take a bit of wind and rain right now, especially as we haven't seen much of that sort of weather since early January.

With another mild week in prospect it looks like Feb will balance out as a fairly average temp wise, so a mild winter overall. Will we see another warm year? Given the trend over recent years and decades you'd be brave to bet against it.

[J10]

Personally I would hope that the trend of high pressure being further north, which has been the bugbear of the winter will turn into our friend during the summer.

Temps 9c at local weather stations, a bit milder though with 11c car thermometer, and back to 9.5c here. Definite muggy feel inside.

[Snowmadsam]

well my weather station is reading 14'c this morning :o

[DeepSnow]

Still haven't gone above 10.8C here this month, the last two days were misty with drizzle the whole time! I expext this week it will go above that! Nice sunny day today and feels more spring like, which is a nice

[J10]

Much better today, the sun is out, today is probably going to be the mildest/warmest day of the week.

[DeepSnow]

When do we normally see convective activity start? Am really looking foward to seeing my first thunderstorm of the year!

[TonyH]

Weather guide Sunday February 26th to Saturday March 3rd (west Wales and central Midlands focused)

Headline: Mild to very mild and mostly dry. Disappointingly cloudy for west Wales.

Spring is making an early appearance this year! On Thursday Coleshill, Warwickshire, was the warmest place in the UK, reaching an amazing 18.7c, this 11c above normal, and close to a February all time record. Nothing so spectacular in west Wales, although Llanwnnen managed 14c.

Winter has been on the dry side for the Midlands, only 120mm falling at Rugby in the past 3 months, compared with 383mm for Llanwnnen which is close to the average. A fairly mild Winter overall- especially for west Wales, few of us seeing even a single day of snow cover.

This week sees more Springlike weather, more unseasonably high temperatures for February mid week, and with high pressure close to the south or south-east predominantly dry, at least for the Midlands.

High pressure is close to southern England Sunday to Monday, although fronts will cross more central and northern parts bringing bands of rain there. Mostly cloudy for west Wales, with a little light rain or drizzle at times Sunday evening and during Monday. The central Midlands staying generally dry, even with a little sunshine. Quite windy on Monday, and mild at 11 or 12c maxima.

During Tuesday and Wednesday the high gradually transfers east into the near Continent with very, even exceptionally mild, sub Tropical air wafting over us again. Unfortunately for Ceredigion it is a moist air flow off the Atlantic once more, so although very mild (maxima 12 to 14c), plenty of cloud will threaten the odd drizzly shower. For Warwickshire, the cloud breaks to give sunny spells, with temperatures challenging this weeks, reaching 15 to 18c on Tuesday and Wednesday. Less breezy mid week.

On Thursday it looks like a weakening trough of low pressure moves into the high, bringing some rain, especially to west Wales, and it will be a cooler, cloudier day for the Midlands, although probably not much rain again. A long way off, but it may be clear enough behind this trough to give many places a ground frost on Thursday night.

A more unsettled look to the end of the week charts, although Friday could well be mostly dry and bright. More active fronts attempt to bring rain bands across all areas next weekend, however, it could be that high pressure asserts to our south once more to kill this off yet again for the MIdlands, so we'll see!

[J10]

I wouldn't call 9c maxes and damp drizzly conditions springlike.

Although 18c is warm for the time of year, for much of the year, and I wouldn't be complaining if we got that.

If we had todays weather next week I'd be happy as well.

[TonyH]

I wouldn't call 9c maxes and damp drizzly conditions springlike.

Although 18c is warm for the time of year, for much of the year, and I wouldn't be complaining if we got that.

If we had todays weather next week I'd be happy as well.

Well, you pay for living near the Mumbles!

In spite of the cloud, even here the very mild conditions have brought on Spring I feel, my guide is by nature a generalisation and there will always be localised effects.

Edited February 25, 2012 by TonyH

[J10]

Well, you pay for living near the Mumbles!

In spite of the cloud, even here the very mild conditions have brought on Spring I feel, my guide is by nature a generalisation and there will always be localised effects.

I am not denying that this week has seen some astonishing weather for parts of the UK, [having 850HPA of +10c is amazing, we were struggling to get that at times last summer] and some parts of Wales have done quite well and NE parts very well, but it does appear to me that the southern coastal strip of Wales has done particularly badly this week. but the current disparity is hard to take.

In 2010, SW Wales was the sunniest palce in the UK, and hopefully things will even themselves out later this year. One benefit though no hosepipe ban!!

[immortal1969]

I have blackbirds nesting in a hedge with virtually no cover and the frogs and toads are going mad in the pond, feels very springlike.

[soupsurfer7]

Yes great to see everything bursting to life and the lambs running around. However, I have a gut feeling winter will have a sting in it's tail in a few weeks time, it's just a feeling I have, nothing to go on and not showing in the models though... I may be totally wrong

[TonyH]

A colder snap next week trending in the models. Probably cold and wet, but hill snow likely to be a feature, should this trend come to eventual fruition.

Still over a week away, but the low that sinks south over the UK contains sub -5c uppers.

Edited February 26, 2012 by TonyH

[TonyH]

In fact uppers are around -5c and low pressure close by from next Sunday to the following Wednesday on ECM. Cold and wet, snow possible, especially on hills.

GFS is in agreement, with -5c uppers along with precipitation early next week,

Edited February 26, 2012 by TonyH

[andymusic]

In fact uppers are around -5c and low pressure close by from next Sunday to the following Wednesday on ECM. Cold and wet, snow possible, especially on hills.

GFS is in agreement, with -5c uppers along with precipitation early next week,

Yes once again - it is looking like we could be in for some more cold weather starting sunday - with some snow a real possibility - only one week outside of official winter - so it's quite possible!

[J10]

GFS 06Hz had a very nice little channel low feature.

12Hz develops the low and pushes it much further north.

However this year, the jet had been further north than recent years, so 12Hz is possibly more likely.

Interesting to see what future runs say.

[keithlucky]

Yes pretty cold Ecm with a keen NN west possible snow overnight Sunday ,Pity this possible ste up wasent a few weeks ago though.

[J10]

Much prefer the potential channel low scenario, than a marginal NW.

[andymusic]

GFS 12z continuing the cold theme for next week - with a cracking low and then easterly regime - if you can't have snow in winter - why not in the spring!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

All depends where this low goes - further south the better

snow for sunday anyone!

Edited February 28, 2012 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Are we in deep mid winter :Nae got snow covering UK on March the 5 and the 6th and 8th.

Edited February 28, 2012 by keithlucky

[J10]

Good eye candy in the charts today, but given the messy scenario, so much needs to fall into place for it to turn out anything like GFS. I'd happily take GFS though.

[bradymk]

Some good charts this afternoon but like Jackone said, so many variables in a situation like this so it would need everything perfect to turn out like the GFS 12z. http://matthewbradyweather.blogspot.com/ Please feel free to check out my blog Thanks

[keithlucky]

Seen these setups before in march with snow sticking to cars and grass still nice to watch though .