Model Discussion - 10th March Onwards

[Zenarcher]

I'm not so sure that it will be clear throughout England and Wales over the next couple of days, tomorrow especially!

Both Matt Hugo and Ian Fergusson over on twitter have expressed views and charts from the latest UKMO MESO runs, suggestive of a lot of cloud cover over England and Wales tomorrow, with sunshine at a premium!

Tuesday better, with more sunshine in places, but again, there will still be some cloud cover about too!

Yes the UKMO goes for a more cloudy outlook over the next few days meanwhile the GFS seems to bring in clear and sunny weather we will soon find out who is right.

Edited March 11, 2012 by weathermaster

[Summer Sun]

After a settled week ECM becomes unsettled from friday, high pressure does build again into next week as per GFS but ECM brings some strong south westerly winds for a time

[J10]

If today is anything to go by fog is also a potential issue.

[Milhouse]

Looks like a spell of more unsettled weather will be upon us by Saturday as LP gradually encroaches from the west. Still some uncertainlty over where the low will end up. It could fragment like the ECM and bring a few showery days with cool temperatures. Or it could sit to the SW of the UK throwing up bands of rain affecting more western areas while eastern parts stay quite warm with more in the way of dry conditions. More into FI pressure is once again indicated to rise from the south but thats still a long way off.

[jethro]

I think the lack of comments is pretty indicative of the boring nature of this weather. The GFS 12Z though does throw a few spanners in the works for a totally settled picture fortunately. A shallow feature shows up next weekend bringing some rain, possibly heavy to many areas, slipping eastwards before dissipating as heights build again by midweek. Then the Atlantic trough takes a dive to the SW of the UK with a warm southeasterly arriving in the outer reaches of FI so possibly more influence from the low than the high if things go well.

Still no sign of much needed persistent rain for southeastern areas though.

I'm not finding this weather boring - it's heavenly. Dry, mild, often sunny, it's a dream to work in, long may it continue IMO.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's probably fairest to say that there's not a great deal to comment on re. the model outputs, but at the same time it's good to see a variety of opinion on the current weather.

I think the next two days will have fairly persistent cloud across much of Scotland (except perhaps SE Scotland) and Northern Ireland as a moist south-westerly flow persists around the northern flank of the high, but elsewhere most places should be sunny, with highs of 15 to 18C widespread. A shift in positioning of the high may allow Scotland to brighten up on Wednesday, but it will cloud over again on Thursday/Friday as the high retreats eastwards. Most of England and Wales should keep warm and predominantly sunny weather throughout the week.

A weak low pressure complex looks set to come in next weekend which will bring one or two weak fronts- the positioning of those fronts will be revised plenty of times in the coming few days. Behind those fronts probably turning showery for a day or two before the next ridge of high pressure heads in. No significant rainfall looks likely for SE areas.

[MP-R]

I'm not finding this weather boring - it's heavenly. Dry, mild, often sunny, it's a dream to work in, long may it continue IMO.

Everyone to their own. For any weather enthusiast this weather does become rather taxing after day 3/4. It probably doesn't help that I'm currently in the southeast therefore have a slight bias in favour of unsettled conditions.

The 18Z GFS does offer a bit more variation though which is good.

[Robbie Garrett]

Fantasty Island, but GFS hinting at some nice heights developing into North Eastern Canada, West of Greenland with 1052 on the surface. I wonder.....

[johnholmes]

Its still one of the most difficult weather set ups to predict in advance- what is?

. The extent of low cloud, when it will be there and when not. Some commenting last night seemed not to have looked at the visual sat piccs over the day but concentrated on the infra red movie showing very little cloud although a close inspection of that did reveal what might scupper the predominantly sunny weather for England and Wales most anticipated.

No daylight shot this morning but the observations over the country tell the story-St, mist and fog predominating for many.

How soon will it clear?

Will it clear and where?

With all the modern technology its still a very difficult forecast.

I'd go for it slowly clearing from affected areas through the morning, that is east of the main high ground, over and west of that, then not so easy. The further from the sea for folk the better.

I may be proved quite wrong and it

1 clears from everywhere

2 only slowly clears from some places!

Ain't forecasting wonderful!

[KTtom]

Some good agreement on the prospects of some unsettled weather later this weekend and early next week with some welcome rainfall in the south of the UK. GFS has a fairly intense low forming over southern UK, however I like the UKMO version above, with lighter winds and reletively high temperatures there could be some heavy slow moving rainfall for the south.

ECM and to a slower extent GFS re-build high pressure later next week, but current indications are for some reasonable rainfall for some this weekend.

[IDO]

Taken as face value the GFS 0z looks good for rain this weekend in the South/SE. However if you look at the ensembles the Op run is an outlier for precipitation for London. 80% of members have very little rain for these areas. Looking at the T850's on the ensembles, again the Op run is an outlier from about the 25th. Again over 75% of members have the uppers at 4-10c.

Good confidence this working week will be settled and mild where the sun shines. GFS has max's of 17c the next five days for the SE. Interestingly many of the ensemble members have highs over 15c (some 20c) from the 23rd till the 27th suggesting a high chance of HP coming back for the last ten days of March. Shows the Op run is an outlier late in FI:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=ens;date=20120312;time=00;file=tmaxLondon;sess=bc7694369aa6136d6922d09324ec6746

ECM is similar, in that they also incorporate a break off low before HP edges back in (slower than GFS).

So the cooler potentially wetter weekend is still low confidence as to specifics but a 2-3 day cooler interlude in the HP domination is now looking at inter-model support.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Its still one of the most difficult weather set ups to predict in advance- what is?

. The extent of low cloud, when it will be there and when not. Some commenting last night seemed not to have looked at the visual sat piccs over the day but concentrated on the infra red movie showing very little cloud although a close inspection of that did reveal what might scupper the predominantly sunny weather for England and Wales most anticipated.

No daylight shot this morning but the observations over the country tell the story-St, mist and fog predominating for many.

How soon will it clear?

Will it clear and where?

With all the modern technology its still a very difficult forecast.

I'd go for it slowly clearing from affected areas through the morning, that is east of the main high ground, over and west of that, then not so easy. The further from the sea for folk the better.

I may be proved quite wrong and it

1 clears from everywhere

2 only slowly clears from some places!

Ain't forecasting wonderful!

I can't comment for the rest of the country but on the Bristol Channel coast where I am , the Fog is persistent , why the rest of the country had a Warm Sunny day yesterday we were in thick Fog for the whole day . Standing on the beach in Weston Super Mare yesterday you couldn't see the Grand Pier even when I was standing next to it . I will post some Pictures in the gallery later, Usually the best way to get blue sky's here is when High pressure builds from the North .

[Summer Sun]

GFS does apper this morning to offer something wetter even for the south from around the 18th

ECM also brings the chance rain this weekend, this low to the south of the UK below could be one to watch depening on its track

Later next week ECM begins to build the high pressure back in

UKMO also offers the chance of rain this weekend

[Robbie Garrett]

Question is, how well are these models performing?? In the short term it looks settled and looks set to remain dry, but next week looks very wet, with Tuesday 20th onwards looking good. Things then change at the end of the next week to pretty much the same as what we have now. With high pressure re-ridging on the Thursday/Friday night. So the short-term is rather predictable, some uncertainty about the mid-term but what about the long term??

[summer blizzard]

Nothing really worthy of a new comment in my opinion as the outlook for the past two days has remained fairly consistent.

I shall say that the GFS6z produces a stonking FI.

[IDO]

Nothing really worthy of a new comment in my opinion as the outlook for the past two days has remained fairly consistent.

I shall say that the GFS6z produces a stonking FI.

For sure:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120312;time=06;ext=372;file=ukmaxtemp;sess=8dcd95ff378c63e88bfa9c16cc851a82;

[picog]

Nothing really worthy of a new comment in my opinion as the outlook for the past two days has remained fairly consistent.

I shall say that the GFS6z produces a stonking FI.

In what sense? Cold, warm, wet, windy ....

[KTtom]

In what sense? Cold, warm, wet, windy ....

From what I recall it had a Scandi high with south easterly winds -5 850's but nothing particularly stonking IMO.

[Summer Sun]

Looks like this settled weather will come to an end for a short time

The breakdown starts on Fiday in the north before everywhere is in the unsettled weather by sunday, with a chance of some much needed rain in the south.

Monday and Tuesday could see Gales in scotland with some windy conditions for much of northern england

By wednesday high pressure is shown to make a quick return before been in complete charge by friday and this last's for most of the month so any rain fall this weekend once again looks like been a short lived spell like it was last week.

UKMO unsettled as per GFS but high pressure never moves too far away

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

http://www.jp2webdes....uk/ds/ukmo.htm

Edited March 12, 2012 by Gavin D

[summer blizzard]

In what sense? Cold, warm, wet, windy ....

Warmer, sunnier and drier even than this week.

From what I recall it had a Scandi high with south easterly winds -5 850's but nothing particularly stonking IMO.

I never saw the 0z but you must have been remembering that, GFS6z was brilliant for warm sunshine.

[summer blizzard]

Oh wow, GFS12z FI is even better..

[Summer Sun]

Oh wow, GFS12z FI is even better..

Some cracking temperatures with that high

Could get into the low 20s as that is the first day of the clocks going forward so with an extra 1 hour's day light there would be every chance.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Some cracking temperatures with that high

Could get into the low 20s as that is the first day of the clocks going forward so with an extra 1 hour's day light there would be every chance.

Just because the clocks go forward it doesn't mean we get 25 hour days.....

[The PIT]

Blimey an extra long day thats one for the record books.

Anyway still in FI land but a little closer this weekend may produce some wintry stuff for the higher ground in the UK as a low brings some welcome rain but not in the right places that need it most.

[Polar Maritime]

After a lovely warm sunny week, the GFS is showing things cooling down somewhat by the weekend bringing more unsettled weather especialy for the North of the uk where Scotland could see some harsh frosts and snow on high ground and mountains, with bands of heavy rain for the rest of the uk, especially for the Midlands and the South where rain realy is most needed.