Model Discussion - 10th March Onwards

[Summer Sun]

The lack of comments say's everything as high pressure continues to dominate GFS once more tonight, cloud amounts could be an issue by mid to late this week temperatures may begin to rise if some drier air moves in from Europe bringing with it more sun than cloud

[Zenarcher]

Monday to Wednesday Summary

The far South of the country look to see the best of the weather by being mainly partly cloudy with sunny spells. Elsewhere will be mainly cloudy through Monday and Tuesday with scattered showers and mist but things do look to clear up on Wednesday. Wind in the South will be light and elsewhere a strong breeze but across Western Ireland and Western/Northern Scotland gale or severe gales are likely on Monday and Tuesday gusts could reach 50mph in exposed coastal or hilly areas.

Thursday and Friday Summary

For most of Ireland, Wales and England it will start off clear and sunny but likely to turn cloudy later with some showers about. For Northern Ireland, Northern England and Scotland it is looking clear and sunny as high pressure moves up North. A strong breeze in the South at first but becoming a light wind later. For the rest a light wind but breezy around Western parts.

Looking ahead to next weekend the three main models continue to show high pressure staying over the UK.

Edited March 18, 2012 by weathermaster

[Geordiesnow]

The lack of comments say's everything as high pressure continues to dominate GFS once more tonight, cloud amounts could be an issue by mid to late this week temperatures may begin to rise if some drier air moves in from Europe bringing with it more sun than cloud

High pressure sort of dominates but there is some complications for the end of the week where we may see some convective rainfall in Southern parts, for Monday and Tuesday it looks like the NW will be cloudy and fairly wet at times but as the high 'bumps' it way up then sunshine will become more of a feature.

The easterly drift the models shown yesterday has backed off a little bit and the winds look more SSE/SE'ly which may mean any low cloud will only affect the NE section of the UK and of course, NW Scotland could get some warmth thanks to a fohn affect off the highlands and folk in the west may see some decent sunshine this week.

A dry week and perhaps weekend is forecast for where people really need the rain but a settled outlook for sure. How much cloud/sunshine there will be is a bit more uncertain but I think the set up does look more favourable for sunshine and warm temperatures than last week.

[Milhouse]

Comparing the ECM 12z to this mornings 0z indicates there is considerable uncertainly over the position of the high come next weekend. The 0z had low pressure grazing southern England towards the end of the run bringing a threat of rain here. The driest conditions were reserved for the northern half of the country.

The 12z sees the low situated much further south over Italy with another Azores high quickly pushing over the UK and asserting itself over the country for the final part of the run. It looks a set up that would lend itself to the formation of mist and low cloud, despite on the face if it looking warm and sunny nationwide.

[Summer Sun]

Monday to Wednesday Summary

The far South of the country look to see the best of the weather by being mainly partly cloudy with sunny spells. Elsewhere will be mainly cloudy through Monday and Tuesday with scattered showers and mist but things do look to clear up on Wednesday. Wind in the South will be light and elsewhere a strong breeze but across Western Ireland and Western/Northern Scotland gale or severe gales are likely on Monday and Tuesday gusts could reach 50mph in exposed coastal or hilly areas.

Thursday and Friday Summary

For most of Ireland, Wales and England it will start off clear and sunny but likely to turn cloudy later with some showers about. For Northern Ireland, Northern England and Scotland it is looking clear and sunny as high pressure moves up North. A strong breeze in the South at first but becoming a light wind later. For the rest a light wind but breezy around Western parts.

Looking ahead to next weekend the three main models continue to show high pressure staying over the UK.

I saw the BBC forecast earlier and they were showing plenty of sunshine for the north on Monday and Tuesday with temperatures upto 17c in Aberdeen by Tuesday, the only exception was the far north west tomorrow where rain is expected, but most of England should be sunny if not a little windy for some.

[Summer Sun]

Tonights ensembles continue to show a period where rain fall simply isn't coming in the amounts needed

Yes they do show rain but there simply won't be enough

[bluearmy]

Note that the extended ECM ens are on a cooling trend. Av maxes below 10c in London as we approach month end.

[Alex]

Very dry GFS 00z however looks like there is some possibility of a few showers on Friday and Saturday as per some members are showing on the ensembles.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS is showing some very warm dry weather throughout the run this morning.

[Milhouse]

ECM 0z has high pressure developing strongly over the north of the UK in about a weeks time and then more widely in the north Atlantic at 240h. I can only see one thing happening after that and that would be for high pressue to the northwest dragging in some cool winds from the northeast.

The GFS 6z is not as warm as the 0z but still brings a pulse of high pressure up from the Azores which reinforces the high already in place to deliver a very nice looking weekend. Temperatures look to be in the mid to high teens for most on Saturday and Sunday before cooling down a touch for the start of next week. There will always be a nagging cool wind of the north sea for eastern districts though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13217.html

[summer blizzard]

Another brilliant set of runs this morning for those wanting sun and warmth.

It looks to me as if the high pressure gets reinforced next weekend which raises the upper air and thickness temperatures so somewhere could be close to 20C.

Ensembles once again say warm.

[bluearmy]

early april continues to look cooler according to the fi ens output. maybe make the most of the next week or so.

[Scorcher]

early april continues to look cooler according to the fi ens output. maybe make the most of the next week or so.

Wishful thinking maybe, that's FI, looking warm within the reliable timeframe, at the moment it looks likely that some places will see 20C this weekend.

[Don]

Wishful thinking maybe, that's FI, looking warm within the reliable timeframe, at the moment it looks likely that some places will see 20C this weekend.

Not really wishful thinking. A number of forecasts are going for a cooler/wetter pattern to become eastablished as we move into April including the Met Office and Netweather. Obviously things can change but there is a reasonable chance that this prolonged mild/dry pattern will break soon, temporarily at least.

[johnholmes]

There is growing support for it turning cooler, possibly markedly so; this has support from all 3 500mb anomaly charts in the 6-15 day time frame, particularly the later part.

The upper ridge is shown as moving perhaps to WNW of nw Scotland. in that time scale.

Just where the surface high will settle is never all that easy but one would expect it to be north of 55N with the position of the predicted upper ridge.

[Cheshire Freeze]

There is growing support for it turning cooler, possibly markedly so; this has support from all 3 500mb anomaly charts in the 6-15 day time frame, particularly the later part.

The upper ridge is shown as moving perhaps to WNW of nw Scotland. in that time scale.

Just where the surface high will settle is never all that easy but one would expect it to be north of 55N with the position of the predicted upper ridge.

If a cold April was to occur, it could provide quite a shock!

[Summer Sun]

High pressure slips south into early April with the potential for some heavy rain in places

[Geordiesnow]

Subtle but perhaps important differences, could be an area of patchy rain heading up from France for Thursday into the far west of the mainland and into Northern Ireland which means any sunshine will be replaced by cloudy skies yet again. The GFS in particular does not want the high to ridge into Greenland which means we appear to get less of an easterly drift therefore warm and sunny weather could be more widespread on some days than expected.

Its a bit hard to put an forecast on it because slight changes in the orientation of the high could change the forecast quite a bit if albeit any rainfall probably won't be significant and most areas should stay dry.

[The PIT]

There could be a spell of dull grey rubbish coming up for eastern areas that may hang around for a bit. Not looking good for rain in the reliable time frame though so bad news for the South and East.

[phil nw.]

Some pleasant and increasingly warmer Spring sunshine looks likely for many this week as the High settles close to the UK feeding in some drier continental air from the south.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

Any light rain or drizzle from atlantic fronts in the far north west will die out as the week goes on under the influence of rising pressure.

Indications currently that this dry and warm setup will continue into and beyond next weekend with the High in situ over the UK.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

The mean hts from the 00z outputs show no signs of the High going anywhere up to 10days ahead.

[Robbie Garrett]

What a difference 384 hours make, a very significant trend that cannot be ignored.... consistent rainfall for months on end starting from 29th March 2012, till at least July. There are some notable gaps, but it is looking very good if this can play off......

The essential break down of the 'Azores stay there forever high pressure', and bringing some much needed rain EOM onwards, which has been hinted at by the CFS model.

There's no getting away from this, but this is for once looking exciting.

[johnholmes]

Pit and phil above show the differing ideas for this week from the same model, well I presume the same model!

there are subtle differences on that T+96 as shown by phil, GFS and UK, UK hints much more than GFS at the dreaded, for those of us this side of the Peak and Pennines, of a flow off the North Sea.

It will depend on the strength of that flow, if Met is correct, the lighter it is then the less effect inland it has other than first thing, the stronger it is the worse it is with only the tops of the Peak and Pennines sticking out of the low St.

So much as with will it rain or not, when and how much, its a case of waiting to see what the isobars show from beyond Wednesday in my view.

Edited March 19, 2012 by johnholmes

[Alex]

What a difference 384 hours make, a very significant trend that cannot be ignored.... consistent rainfall for months on end starting from 29th March 2012, till at least July. There are some notable gaps, but it is looking very good if this can play off......

The essential break down of the 'Azores stay there forever high pressure', and bringing some much needed rain EOM onwards, which has been hinted at by the CFS model.

There's no getting away from this, but this is for once looking exciting.

Sorry but I fail to see how this is good! Ok good for rainfall but sorry if I sound blunt but I would rather have a nice spring and summer/ drought then it can rain all it wants after that. Surely we are due a nice summer after the last few years with the exception of 2010.

The GFS 12z ensembles are dry this evening but FI is showing some wetter conditions as we go into April.

[Robbie Garrett]

Sorry but I fail to see how this is good! Ok good for rainfall but sorry if I sound blunt but I would rather have a nice spring and summer/ drought then it can rain all it wants after that. Surely we are due a nice summer after the last few years with the exception of 2010.

The GFS 12z ensembles are dry this evening but FI is showing some wetter conditions as we go into April.

I fail to see how, another 8 months of this dry crap is good when you've had since 2009 to soak it up, considering we have entered a drought on the exit of winter, when most of the rainfall is likely to fall.

Define a good Summer, we had two bouts of above 20C+ (April 2011/Sept/Oct 2011) hitting 30s on many occasions last year, even June recorded the hottest temperatures since 2006. Weather is weather, and whatever it does is whatever it does. To say you want the next 6-8 months to be dry is not a good idea, because it's going to cause far more problems that in it's worth.

The models have hinted at times of a cooler and wetter theme from at least the EOM onwards, and the CFS has indicated it for the last 2 weeks. I havent seen rainfall longer than at least a day for years, it just goes to show how dry it is down in the South and East.

Be careful what you wish for!!

[phil nw.]

Pit and phil above show the differing ideas for this week from the same model, well I presume the same model!

there are subtle differences on that T+96 as shown by phil, GFS and UK, UK hints much more than GFS at the dreaded, for those of us this side of the Peak and Pennines, of a flow off the North Sea.

It will depend on the strength of that flow, if Met is correct, the lighter it is then the less effect inland it has other than first thing, the stronger it is the worse it is with only the tops of the Peak and Pennines sticking out of the low St.

So much as with will it rain or not, when and how much, its a case of waiting to see what the isobars show from beyond Wednesday in my view.

Yes John fair points re. low cloud risk.My overview of the week glossed over the possibility of a flow off the N.Sea which could make for some colder and dull conditions with low cloud/harr especially near the east coast.

Always difficult to be certain where and when as you suggest but for the majority a slack flow would tend to favour the sun breaking through for many areas away from here.