Model Discussion - 10th March Onwards

[Spurry]

I fail to see how, another 8 months of this dry crap is good when you've had since 2009 to soak it up, considering we have entered a drought on the exit of winter, when most of the rainfall is likely to fall.

Be careful what you wish for!!

Sorry Mods , i know this is not strictly Model realated but i felt i needed to reply to Robbies post..

Robbie , believe me , not all of the country have had 8 months of'dry crap' as you call it, if we had 8 weeks i would be glad...up here in the NW it has not stopped raining for about 12 months give or take a week or two , so don't give me all that 'dry crap' crap.. to see the models showing an extended period of High Pressure is nothing short of utopia for us in the NW , our ground is sodden from all the rain(not snow) we have had over the past 12 months..

Edited March 19, 2012 by Spurry

[Cheshire Freeze]

Sorry Mods , i know this is not strictly Model realated but i felt i needed to reply to Robbies post..

Robbie , believe me , not all of the country have had 8 months of'dry crap' as you call it, if we had 8 weeks i would be glad...up here in the NW it has not stopped raining for about 12 months give or take a week or two , so don't give me all that 'dry crap' crap.. to see the models showing an extended period of High Pressure is nothing short of utopia for us in the NW , our ground is sodden from all the rain(not snow) we have had over the past 12 months..

Well that shows the difference 30 miles or so can make because here, albeit far from arid like parts of the SE, it's not been anywhere near as wet as you describe. Saying that, I have noticed that rain events have tended to hit NW England north of Liverpool-South Manchester and left here being mostly dull, dry and cloudy. Even if we haven't had much rain here, we get our water from further north and north Wales so whilst just across the border across the Midlands may struggle if the dry weather persists, we'll be fine

[Spurry]

Well that shows the difference 30 miles or so can make because here, albeit far from arid like parts of the SE, it's not been anywhere near as wet as you describe. Saying that, I have noticed that rain events have tended to hit NW England north of Liverpool-South Manchester and left here being mostly dull, dry and cloudy. Even if we haven't had much rain here, we get our water from further north and north Wales so whilst just across the border across the Midlands may struggle if the dry weather persists, we'll be fine

You are probably right CC, it does seem that a line from Liverpool eastwards to the pennines/peaks seems to be the dividing line between the wet and drier weather that the country has been experiencing, i may have exagerated slightly when i said it hasn't stopped raining for 12 months but certainly since April 2011 i can't remember a really dry period here for anything longer than a few days, although i do vaguely recollect some dry dull HP days during the winter whilst the rest of the UK was snowbound

Edited March 19, 2012 by Spurry

[summer blizzard]

Quite frankly i am not willing to have a bad summer just so the south can aliviate their drought.

GFS18z is great, day after day or warm and sunny weather for me by the looks of it.

[Nights King]

Models showing a pleasant warm dry spell on the cards!

Can we leave the drought talk to the south east thread or similar as I am getting bored of hearing it day after day as I check in to read about peoples thoughts on the models.

[Terminal Moraine]

Some interesting developments at the end of ECM's latest run as the persistent area of high pressure transfers north westward towards southern Greeland and the floodgates open from the north as a deep area of low pressure moves east between Scotland and Iceland. It's the second consecutive run with a similar development but, as yet, with no backing from the GFS which keeps high pressure over or near the British Isles to the end of the run and has an almost flat line precipitation graph on the ensembles.

It would seem the Met' Office are thinking along similar lines to the ECM as their extended forecast speaks of high pressure moving into mid-Atlantic to allow cooler and more unsettled weather across Britain as we move into April.

[Polar Continental]

Some interesting developments at the end of ECM's latest run as the persistent area of high pressure transfers north westward towards southern Greeland and the floodgates open from the north as a deep area of low pressure moves east between Scotland and Iceland. It's the second consecutive run with a similar development but, as yet, with no backing from the GFS which keeps high pressure over or near the British Isles to the end of the run and has an almost flat line precipitation graph on the ensembles.

It would seem the Met' Office are thinking along similar lines to the ECM as their extended forecast speaks of high pressure moving into mid-Atlantic to allow cooler and more unsettled weather across Britain as we move into April.

Yes, I have been keeping a desperate eye on the same development TM, the GFS only seems to pick up a signal which transfers the winter killer high a little further north and that’s much later in its time frame. The GEM seems to be tentatively heading in the same direction as the ECM at T240

GEM T240

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

[picog]

First real sign in the ensembles that something may be afoot, starting around the 29 March:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

[inga]

Quite frankly i am not willing to have a bad summer just so the south can aliviate their drought.

GFS18z is great, day after day or warm and sunny weather for me by the looks of it.

I had to put up with day after day of whinging about the absence of cold during the winter instead of objective model comment, so I don't see why you should be spared the anxiety of those hoping to see rain now. I live in the North West, so this isn't a personal matter - I am just capable of understanding why people feel this way. Moreover, this isn't about a purely selfish wish for extreme weather that suits my individual taste regardless of the hazard to others. It is turning into a national crisis that directly impacts on the lives of millions and has a drastic effect on the environment.

[johnholmes]

It is surely not beyond the ability of anyone posting on Net Weather to post comments about drought into the correct thread? This is the model discussion thread and yes there will be a grey area where a personal preference will creep in but lets discuss the models shall we. Personal digs and comments are not wanted in here.

Longer term trends do seem to suggest it will turn less mild/warm as the upper ridge edges west with its longitude looking to be about 10 west about 15 days from now. Its always difficult to translate the 500mb positions down to the surface but I would expect a surface high, before the month end, to be north of 55N and probably west or NW of the UK.

[Summer Sun]

GFS becomes very unsettled during early April

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[Bottesford]

Yes lets please stick to the models and leave the drought specific talk out of this thread.

No problem with some personal opinion dropping in here but we can't spend the next 6 months comparing each chart to its affect upon the drought going on in the south east.

No doubt we'll see some rain eventually but I'm on of those definitely hoping that 'eventually' is not late May to August!

[Robbie Garrett]

End of the GFS, looks to me as the signifying end of what has been an unpresedented 2 years of lack of rainfall in London.

The change is the jetstream. She looks angry.....

Edited March 20, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[ribster]

Looks like a change is on the way from arond 192 onwards, I do hope so, might mean I don't have to read 'High pressure in charge, more of the same from the ECM, METO agrees too, right out to FI!'

Edited March 20, 2012 by ribster

[Costa Del Fal]

The GFS 06z Op does look very unsettled into April however the Ensembles paint a much watered down version. I wouldnt say the OP is an outlier but into April its pretty much right at the bottom end of the pressure and 850hPa temps and thus higher in ppn too. The 12z will most likely be a much more "average" scenario.

I really do recommend people look/learn the ensembles before posting sometimes as it can give a more balanced view imo. Just commenting on the Op can actually give a misleading view. Most of the GFS members are not as extreme as the Op.

Edited March 20, 2012 by Blizzards

[MP-R]

Definitely a change from the current April-like weather, as more March-like weather arrives in time for April. GFS 06Z FI even shows a cold northerly for much of the UK for 31st/01st followed by the floodgates opening to the Atlantic. I'm sure this will get watered down with time as the GFS does paint quite a windy picture for the new month - perhaps an emphasis on frontal rainfall than sunshine and showers.

Meanwhile still very settled in the reliable timeframe. The change can't come soon enough in my opinion.

[Zenarcher]

Long Range

Looks like the high pressure and mainly settled weather will stick to the UK until the end of March now but the models are starting to show a change in the pattern. The ECM and GEM show high pressure eventually moving up to Greenland giving more unsettled weather over the UK and likely to be cold at times but it should mean rain gets to some of those areas that need it. The Met Office long range even mentions something along the lines of the ECM. For the 06z GFS it shows something different it does show something similar to the ECM at 240 hours but quickly flattens things out with that strong jet stream. I think the GFS 06z is a outlier in terms of pressure it pretty much has no support on it in FI.

Wednesday and Thursday Summary

For Scotland and Ireland it will start off cloudy with mist over the North of Scotland eventually this should clear away on Thursday and become clear and sunny. Gales in the West turning to a strong breeze later and for elsewhere the same. Northern England are likely to see the best of the weather by staying mostly clear and sunny however it may turn cloudy in Western parts later. Wind in these parts will be light. For Southern England starting off with sunny spells becoming cloudy later. Wind will be light at first but becoming breezy later and a strong breeze around the coasts.

Friday to Sunday

For Western and Northern Scotland starting off clear and sunny becoming mostly cloudy over the weekend. The wind will be a strong breeze. For Ireland, Wales and most of England will see a mixed bag of weather with cloudy and clear, sunny conditions likely to both pass through. Wind light but gales for Western Ireland on Friday night. For Northern England, Eastern and Southern Scotland will be cloudy to start with but turning clear and sunny for most of the time however some cloud might edge in for short periods of times over Western areas. Wind will be light.

As stated at the start of the post the models seem to have picked up on a change as we head into April but for now we just have to watch and wait.

[Geordiesnow]

I'm still cautious on any potential pattern change but the models have been trying to ridge the high towards Greenland but not having much affect on our weather, and whilst there are signs this may change in terms of a potential Northerly we all know that is still FI.

The models are still fiddling around regarding the orientation of the high, will it head northwards as per the ECM which will lead to a cooler(for some) cloudier set up or will it be the GFS persistance of a more favourable position of keeping the warmth and of course any sunshine that may break through. There are some complications with some patchy outbreaks of rain heading up from France potentially but it really is looking like quite a lengthy dry spell for some which of course is not good news for some.

[Summer Sun]

Quite a change in FI tonight from GFS with high pressure doing its best to hang around the 3st looks like been a bit chilly

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[johnholmes]

I'll do a fuller update on my post 191 above sometime tomorrow, in the usual pdf format.

It seems fairly certain to me that a change in wave length and weather type is going to happen towards the month end.

[summer blizzard]

I'll do a fuller update on my post 191 above sometime tomorrow, in the usual pdf format.

It seems fairly certain to me that a change in wave length and weather type is going to happen towards the month end.

I am still very much doubtful as to how big a change will occur.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_10_2011_merra.pdf

Shows that the stratospheric cold wedge is still present driving a weak polar vortex and provoking mid-latitude blocking.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Shows the ensemble mean remaining well above throughout and the operational being one of the colder solutions.

....

Given these factors i would be inclined to say that any change will be fairly small and while the mean high may well set up west of the UK, high pressure for the most part will continue to rule the roost.

In my opinion, other than a few cool nights we are unlikely to see more than a toppler until at least the 10th April.

[Summer Sun]

ECM shows high pressure all the way tonight which is different to this mornings offering

[minus 9]

Yawn yawn

[Geordiesnow]

The GFS has sort of come into line with what weather09 is saying but still looks the odd one out in this respect, it does look a little bit of a complicated set up but the risk of PPN coming up from France has certainly increased on todays outputs thats for sure, so perhaps not the mostly dry output that we were expecting.

The UKMO has now come into line with the ECM in having the high just to the North of Scotland which mean cool easterly drift which could result in alot more cloud and cooler temperatures for alot of places. The GFS has not really changed too much and shows a warmer and probably sunnier set up on a more widespread basis although even on the 18Z run, you can see some sort of flow coming from the North Sea.

[summer blizzard]

There may very well be a thundery showers from this little feature however they will largely be confined to the south and west, no GFS run has even forecast rain to spread as far north as Leeds.