Model Discussion - 10th March Onwards

[Zenarcher]

Long Range

Using three models to look at what we can expect for the end of next week and next weekend. GEM has high pressure over most of the UK although at times low pressure near the North and East. ECM shows something similar high pressure over most of the UK and the GFS also has high pressure over the UK like the ECM. So at the moment its looking like a settled outlook as we end March.

Weekend Summary

Over Scotland and Eastern parts of England will start off partly cloudy with sunny spells on Saturday but likely to become clear and sunny on Sunday. For Ireland, Wales and the rest of England it will be clear and sunny for most of the weekend however some fog patches are likely around Eastern coasts at times. Wind all over the UK will be light.

Monday to Wednesday Summary

As a large area of high pressure moves over the UK it will continue to be settled during the first few days for all parts of the UK even those in the North are likely to see long last sunshine. On Wednesday this continues for most but for the very far North of Scotland its looking to turn cloudy with some showers. The wind will be mainly light but turning breezy in the North on Wednesday.

A follow up from the long range outlook I made the models are still unsure on where the high pressure will go. It does look to head into the Atlantic and move near Greenland by this time next week which is still a long way off so predicting whats going to happen after this is interesting but unknown at this time.

[summersnow]

"I personally interpret this as a rather watered down northerly break down followed by "business as usual"! Could still mean some rain for the south though, after the coming week of pleasant weather!"

GFS 12z now starting to show something akin to the above,,,it will be interesting to see if others models and the Met Office outlook changes to suit.

[Cloud 10]

Some interesting charts in the later stages of the ECM this evening and would be a real

shock to the system after the weather we have had recently!

Obviously subject to change at 10 days out,but good ensemble support for the polar vortex to set up

east of Greenland/northern Scandinavia so no surprise to see this sort of evolution in the operational runs.

[J10]

The latest Ski and weather blog for the Alps is published,

However even here cannot escape the warm settled weather.

[summersnow]

ECM 12z dives back into a northerly scenario, which would probably be more sustained than anything so far this year from that direction - should it verify.

GFS doesn't quite get there but shows a similar, yet much less potent trend, with the northerly never quite getting to out shores. Indeed the UK seems to protected throughout in a bubble of relative warmth!

Met Office still backing something akin to ECM, I note!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I am really not a negative person, but all through winter we kept being told not to look beyond 3 days on the models..Or what ever it was, but home come now it is okay?? I understand that the northerly is showing up constantly bar a very few...But didn't that happen all through winter and what happened? Sorry to sound negative I can assure you I don't mean to be...

[Robbie Garrett]

I am really not a negative person, but all through winter we kept being told not to look beyond 3 days on the models..Or what ever it was, but home come now it is okay?? I understand that the northerly is showing up constantly bar a very few...But didn't that happen all through winter and what happened? Sorry to sound negative I can assure you I don't mean to be...

This is probably because, there's nothing interesting in the models for the next 300hrs... it's more of the same, less of something else, which has been the story for a very long time. Just look at this forum, when heavy snow was showing out to 120+hrs and it never came to fruition. 12 pages of the model discussion at the very least per day, now we have 12 pages since 10th march.

It's all we can look at for change, which is more than required.

Edited March 23, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[phil nw.]

I am really not a negative person, but all through winter we kept being told not to look beyond 3 days on the models..Or what ever it was, but home come now it is okay?? I understand that the northerly is showing up constantly bar a very few...But didn't that happen all through winter and what happened? Sorry to sound negative I can assure you I don't mean to be...

No harm in discussing any output from model runs Surrey,whatever time of year-that`s what this thread is for.

I think most members can judge the likelhood of later output verifying if that`s your concern.

A breakdown of sorts around the change of month has certainly been hinted at for a few days now and this is a trend that shouldn`t be ignored.

Meanwhile there`s little doubt that the next week looks dry and fine with some warm afternoons under the influence of the high resident over or near the UK.

Edited March 23, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Geordiesnow]

I am really not a negative person, but all through winter we kept being told not to look beyond 3 days on the models..Or what ever it was, but home come now it is okay?? I understand that the northerly is showing up constantly bar a very few...But didn't that happen all through winter and what happened? Sorry to sound negative I can assure you I don't mean to be...

The trend for parts of the Northern Hemisphere is now changing with the PV weakening significantly and this is a time of year where Northerlies increase due to a weaker PV because of the natural warming as we head towards the summer season.

That said, this does not mean our pattern of dry and settled weather will change, we could see a Northerly drift but because high pressure is near by rainfall will be minimal. And also the fact that in recent times an attempted Azores ridge into Greenland with a stright due Northerly from the Arctic has been unsuccessful in occuring and we do end up with a northerly with high pressure nearby therefore its dull, cloudy and dry.

Next week does look dry but could turn cloudier nationwide as we get cloud toppling over from the NW and a weak front heading into Scotland. Of course this may change if an attempted ridge into Greenland is indeed successful.

[reef]

There are some signs of a change in the early regions of FI at the moment with quite a few colder members appearing in the ensembles now where there were none a couple of days ago:

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

http://www.wetterzen...berdeen_ens.png

ECM is perhaps the most extreme scenario with a Greenland high bringing cold air southwards:

http://cdn.nwstatic....ecmt850.192.png

The GFS 18z control and operational runs say no for the moment, but most of the models are in agreement for a retrogression of our North Sea high into the North Atlantic in the 120-144 hour range. From there it depends on the strength of the jet and if the polar vortex relents.

In the mean time its more of the same with lots of warm and sunny weather away from the east. However as the high moves eastwards and centres itself over the UK on Monday and Tuesday all areas should enjoy the pleasant weather as the sea breezes die down. This allows widespread warm temperatures, with 20-22C not out of the question:

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn7217.png

A -10C 850hPa northerly would be a hell of a switcharound if it happened. Its been quite a few years since we've seen one.

[Robbie Garrett]

There are some signs of a change in the early regions of FI at the moment with quite a few colder members appearing in the ensembles now where there were none a couple of days ago:

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

http://www.wetterzen...berdeen_ens.png

ECM is perhaps the most extreme scenario with a Greenland high bringing cold air southwards:

http://cdn.nwstatic....ecmt850.192.png

The GFS 18z control and operational runs say no for the moment, but most of the models are in agreement for a retrogression of our North Sea high into the North Atlantic in the 120-144 hour range. From there it depends on the strength of the jet and if the polar vortex relents.

In the mean time its more of the same with lots of warm and sunny weather away from the east. However as the high moves eastwards and centres itself over the UK on Monday and Tuesday all areas should enjoy the pleasant weather as the sea breezes die down. This allows widespread warm temperatures, with 20-22C not out of the question:

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn7217.png

A -10C 850hPa northerly would be a hell of a switcharound if it happened. Its been quite a few years since we've seen one.

You have to be kidding me with that synoptic, how on earth does it go from this warm to that cold. Talk about shock to the system, that looks very wintry.

[Zakos]

You have to be kidding me with that synoptic, how on earth does it go from this warm to that cold. Talk about shock to the system, that looks very wintry.

Thats British weather for you! Or at least what British weather is usually like.

The weather has been very static and slow moving for months now.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

No harm in discussing any output from model runs Surrey,whatever time of year-that`s what this thread is for.

I think most members can judge the likelhood of later output verifying if that`s your concern.

A breakdown of sorts around the change of month has certainly been hinted at for a few days now and this is a trend that shouldn`t be ignored.

Meanwhile there`s little doubt that the next week looks dry and fine with some warm afternoons under the influence of the high resident over or near the UK.

wicked thanks for your response Well at least I got some amazing weather for 18th Birthday on Wednesday! And my party today!!!! Anyone want to come? More than welcome ...A breakdown would be good we need the rain and as you said the models have been showing this for a little while now..But of course i expect it will all change come nearer the time etc etc..

[Methuselah]

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120324;time=00;ext=384;file=h850t850eu;sess=c677bb8123a8742ad50f832fd62db454;

Would be interesting if it ever came off??

[Polar Maritime]

The models are showing things turning much more unsettled as we head into April, from the North or East.

[summersnow]

I am really not a negative person, but all through winter we kept being told not to look beyond 3 days on the models..Or what ever it was, but home come now it is okay?? I understand that the northerly is showing up constantly bar a very few...But didn't that happen all through winter and what happened? Sorry to sound negative I can assure you I don't mean to be...

Not looking beyond 3 days is complete nonsense! I have also noticed the tendancy for some to suggest this but to be honest, generally the model suite does pretty well at determining trends well beyond 3 days. There are times clearly, when the models jump around, and it is during such times that some model output needs to be treated cautiously. But , this certainly does NOT mean that model output beyond 3 days should be disregarded.

The fact of the mattter is that some models did intermittently flirt with the idea of a sustained northerly during the winter period but it was never a consistent trend and despite several solutions showing a block to the northwest establishing itself, this never bacame consistent enough on more than one model for more than 60 hrs or so of output. But, crucially, unless you look beyond 3 days, you'll never be able to determine whether or not there is such consistency in model output.

In this current northerly scenario, ECM has been fairly consistent now for at least 3 days worth of output, whereas GFS is not keen on anything potent or sustained. Because of this significant divergence between what I regard as the big 2 in the longer time frames, there remains a fair bit of uncertainty. Interestingly though, the Met Office is suggesting in its longer term outllook something similar to the ECM scenario ie airstream predominantly fro north or northwest.

You are not being negative, you've actually highligted a valid point in some of the discussions!

[Tim Bland]

Easter weekend could be cold with snow in the north and high ground if the 06z was correct!

[summersnow]

Easter weekend could be cold with snow in the north and high ground if the 06z was correct!

Yes, GFS 06z now showing a northerly outbreak as well but at a later stage than ECM. Higher probability now than at any time so far this year of such a scenario verifying within the next 2 weeks or so. GFS still not particularly keen on this though considering its wider output over the past few days. For me, if the Met Office continues to back this trend, I'll remain reasonably confident of it verifying in some form or another!

[summer blizzard]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Mean stays above average throughout and if anything the operationals have pushed the plunge eastward.

[Derp Patrol]

I am really not a negative person, but all through winter we kept being told not to look beyond 3 days on the models..Or what ever it was, but home come now it is okay?? I understand that the northerly is showing up constantly bar a very few...But didn't that happen all through winter and what happened? Sorry to sound negative I can assure you I don't mean to be...

Because people are getting desperate for cold, despite the reliable outlook looking beautifully warm and sunny for the majority.

[reef]

Because people are getting desperate for cold, despite the reliable outlook looking beautifully warm and sunny for the majority.

Its in the models, so theres no issue with discussing whats showing. I havent seen anyone say its dead certain. Nor have I seen anyone suggest its not going to be predominantly warm, settled and in a lot of places, sunny in the next week or so.

[The PIT]

Interesting that GP mentions the high moving west and further north and off it goes in the GFS. Takes it's time the move starting in FI and ends up giving some interesting charts in deep FI with northerlies and then a north easterly being shown. I wouldn't bet on a late re-appearance of winter though. In the meantime plenty dry weather to come. Going to be some time before fog and morning gloom becomes less of a problem though.

[summersnow]

ECM has been very consistently showing a cold plunge for several runs and the Met Office continues to back this scenario in its longer term outlook.

GFS still seems to want to bring it on later.

Nothing certain but looking more probable every day. Plenty of time for downgrading and back tracking though!!

[Iceaxecrampon]

Happy Easter.

[damianslaw]

Models firming up now on a change to something much cooler and possibly unsettled as we enter April, thanks to the current high shifting to our NW by the end of next week and more importantly ridging into Greenland thanks to a much weakened PV and some warm air advection to the west of greenland and also troughing into NW Russia.

UKMO very keen on such developments and also ECM, GFS less keen but shows such a scenario eventually. Meto update has been very consistent and suggests heights remaining strong to our NW for quite some time allowing cooler northerly and northeasterly airstreams to envelop the country during much of April - perfectly normal synoptics for April it has to be said - but remains to be seen whether this happens.

So short term - more of the same, very mild for the time of year, indeed warm for many with lots of sunshine away from eastern coastal parts and very light winds, but chilly nights as well, becoming cooler by the end of next week especially in the north with chance of showery outbreaks for Scotland and NE England or more general rain, but staying dry in the south especially SW and quite mild still. Longer term the run up to easter could be a chilly showery windy affair but not necessarily a cloudy one, northerly airstreams bring much sunshine in the spring, but also convection.. Personally I'd much sooner see the current warm settled conditions break in early April rather than early May.. a cool unsettled April would suit me fine provided we see a decent May!..