Model Discussion - 10th March Onwards

[Slowpoke]

The next mild spell looks very similar to the charts that produced the heatwave at the end of September. They're too early this year!

[phil nw.]

Next week looks much the same as this week to me although with cooler air underneath the high.

I suspect the east coast may see lingering cloud but central and western areas will probably see sunshine.

All in all, a fantastic March output for some and pretty pleasing for me. (Leeds will get sun all day if winds are S of E, cloud if winds are N of E).

I am reluctant to be too optimisitic regarding sunshine next week here in the midlands,especially where the flow is still from the south west earlier on.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

it`s been disappointingly grim here so far this week with fog or cloud persisting through much of the day with only brief breaks towards mid-late afternoon.

A similar set up would likely bring more of the same untill the high moves further north east as modelled for later next week.

This may bring low cloud and sea fog into eastern coastal districts and the west will then see the brightest weather.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

After the weekend blip though it does look very dry for another long spell and if the high does move to our east then we could import some quite warm and dry air from the south east..

[Cheese Rice]

Indeed, what appeared to be a rather cloudy high has turned out to be a very sunny spell of weather here.

The sat image highlights a regular feature occurring whereby east of the pennines is seeing cloud breaking readily.

Perhaps due to the slack flow the hill tops are cutting into cloud.

The current output suggests much the same with the second high bringing a slack southerly flow. I would say NE England/Yorkshire best positioned for some length spells of sunshine.

The high next week is orientated unfavorably though for lengthy sunshine levels. Eastern coastal areas are likely to be plagued with low cloud, Inland areas will too be prone to this although it'll all depend on the strength of the March sunshine which should burn away quite alot of the cloud.

Edited March 15, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Summer Sun]

More of the same from GFS, unsettled over the weekend before high pressure dominates from Tuesday right out to 364h, the big thing will be if its a cloudy high or one like this week, sunny for some cloudy for others

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[Summer Sun]

Weekend rain fall

GFS is once again showing an unsettled weekend for some whilst others further north should see some good spells of sunshine, places north of Manchester have a very good chance of seeing some decent spells of sun

12:00 Saturday

18:00

Sunday 00:00

Sunday's rain fall has just about been completely downgraded

So other than Saturday the drought areas don't look like getting much rain

[johnholmes]

There are still considerable differences between GFS and Met as to how much rain, where and when for later Saturday into Sunday?

see pdf below

sat-sun rainfall predict 12z thur 15 mar 12.pdf

Edited March 15, 2012 by johnholmes

[Summer Sun]

ECM is high pressure dominated tonight

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/ecm.htm

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

There are still considerable differences between GFS and Met as to how much rain, where and when for later Saturday into Sunday?

see pdf below

sat-sun rainfall predict 12z thur 15 mar 12.pdf

Indeed John, the Met keeps the rain in the places that need it for quite a bit longer. Coming from one of those areas, I hope the MO is right.

After that we look like having another dry spell

[Cheese Rice]

Another bout of cold air likely for eastern Europe again! As some have already mentioned Eastern Europe is the place to be.

Of course if the high positioned itself favorably we could be in luck, not likely though.

[conor123]

The GFS has the rain event further west and more intense for the Midlands than the 12z with it turning to snow over hills further north Saturday Night.

[Zakos]

well the GFS 18z is certainly a run to tickle the fancy of Gavin D!

In all seriousness, a truly a diabolical run for those looking for rain. High Pressure remains very stubborn over the Uk for the majority of the run.

As far as the south and east is concerned,the Atlantic is effectively dead

We do of course have the unsettled blip this weekend, but HP quickly reasserts itself therafter.

This is FI, but this is a repeating pattern that has been a common sight for a long time now-

As soon as The Jet finally looks like breaking through a block-

High pressure forms seemingly out of nowhere, forcing the Jet north, keeping PPN at bay for most of the UK.

Edited March 15, 2012 by Zakos

[Paul]

Michael Fish's latest forecast:

[Alex]

This weekends cold front had a wave a few days ago but looking at the fax charts this morning it seems to of disappeared, I wonder whether this is the reason for the downgrading of the rain totals in some southeastern areas?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Cold weather now...I wouldn't even hint at it...Like the models are showing..High pressure in charge and with that jet being pushed North by it untip the HP subsides and looses it's energy it's going now where fast.

[Summer Sun]

Not much rain around after this weekends low passes through

Weekend Rain

Saturday

Sunday

The high next week is likely to start as a cloudy one but as it starts to drift east this will hopefully bring some drier air with it

[Milhouse]

The high next week is likely to start as a cloudy one but as it starts to drift east this will hopefully bring some drier air with it

....And some warmer air by the end of the week. The first half of the week will see the UK stuck under some quite cool upper temperatures brought on by Sundays brief northerly. They only really clear at the end of the week as we start to import something warmer off the continent.

However as has been shown this week, upper air temperatures dont tell the full story. Nigttime frosts will be a feature of early next week but providing we get some sunshine then it will end up warmer than it has done this week (except for the SE that saw the warmth yesterday) . And thats with uppers nearer 0c rather than 7/8c.

[J10]

for those looking for some interesting weather

It is looking a bit snowier over the Alps over the start of next week, after recent mild weather.

[Zenarcher]

Weekend Summary

Most of England, Wales and parts of Ireland will see unsettled weather to begin with widespread cloud, mist and rain about. Eventually this should clear away later by Sunday and bring in clear and sunny weather again. For Western parts of Ireland and Scotland they look to see the best of the weather with clear and sunny conditions. The wind across the UK will be mainly a strong breeze turning to a light wind later but gales are likely across Northwestern Scotland on late Sunday.

Monday to Wednesday Summary

For most of England mainly Southern and Southeastern parts it will start off clear and sunny then it will turn partly cloudy with sunny spells later and there is a risk of mist as well. For the rest of the UK, Ireland, Northern England and Scotland very changeable weather is likely on Monday most areas will be fine with sunny spells however most of Scotland will have rain perhaps heavy at times. Eventually this weather moves across Ireland and Northern England bringing cloud and mist with a few showers as well. By Wednesday cloud and mist will still stay for most but Western and Northern Scotland start to see clear and sunny weather. On Monday most of England and Wales will see a strong breeze but elsewhere there will be gale force winds. After Monday the wind will be mainly light for most areas but staying breezy across Scotland.

Looking into the longer range for the end of next week and the weekend the weather models do show a strong trend of high pressure covering all of the UK.

[Summer Sun]

Rain fall for this weekend looks like only bringing low totals to the areas which need it my guess is most areas will see no more than 12mm, an area of snow also need watching early sunday morning

Saturday

Sunday brings the chance of snow first thing for some

After this high pressure builds by mid week winds will fall light and it should be brighter for many, however the far north west is likely to remain breezy and cloudy with light rain possible, by next weekend it should become mild to very mild by day but with clear skies by night frosts are still likely with some fog as well for some.

[coldwinter]

Interesting ECM in the latter stages, could be picking up on a blocking signal as we near april, didn't some of the GFS ensembles show that in the extended range. Something to watch this.

Possible pattern change early april as MJO looks to enter phase 6/7. ECM 32 dayer signals a change to colder more unsettled conditions in april, with possibily north or north east winds.

Latest EC 32 continues the dry, settled and mild signal until the end of March, but with a sig pattern change early April......high pressure becomes a feature to the W of the UK and temps drop below avg, with rainfall near or above avg & potential N or NE'ly winds (Matt Hugo)

Winter to return anyone?

Bring it on.

Ryan.

[Cloud 10]

Do my eyes deceive me?

Polar vortex shifted east of greenland,a mid atlantic high and a cut-off azores low on the same chart.

[johnholmes]

Sadly I do not have access to the ECMWF 32 day outlook. I have to say though there have been, to my recollection, at least a couple of changes suggested by folk with access to it which have not come to fruition. Its not infallible just like any other model or human forecast.

I restrict my outlooks to about 20 days, a bit beyond the 500mb anomaly outputs.

Taking the last 5 days or so, which take us out to the end of March, and there is little to suggest an upper ridge being anywhere other than either over or close by the UK, east/north east of, not west or north west in that time scale.

The overall predicted movement of the +ve 500mb anomaly IS west of north though over the past 5-6 days. Maybe this is something the ECMWF longer outlook is taking and expanding on?

Edited March 16, 2012 by johnholmes

[Summer Sun]

With regards to the ECM 32 day outlook I beleive it was showing things to turn cold during February which never really happened apart from one cold snap

ECM starts of settled in tonights uppdate but but the end it does intoduce low pressure with rain for a good few, now this is either just a blip or its onto something tomorrow will soon tell us if this signal continues for low pressure

http://www.null/ds/ecm.htm

[coldwinter]

Well it did turn cold at the start of february, 5 degrees below average, but yes i think it was showing blocking for pretty much the whole month not just that, but overall i think it is a very good long range tool and obviously has to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Ryan.

Edited March 16, 2012 by coldwinter

[Geordiesnow]

Am I the only one who finds the model output interesting? Looking at the continious dry output for the UK, looking at the massive warm/hot(for the time of year) for parts of Canada/Eastern US and how this may affect the sea ice in Hudson and how long will it be before another southerly spell will hit the Svalbord isles!

It does look like regarding us it will be turning drier next week and maybe perhaps at last some sunshine for more North western areas if a SE'ly do indeed develop like the models are indicating, something to keep an eye on for sure.